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Total Addressable Market

How many customers can you reach?

The conventional wisdom of targeting a massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) sounds appealing in theory but often fails in practice. This approach, typically advocated by those who haven't operated businesses themselves, represents a form of intellectual laziness that can lead to scattered efforts and diluted value propositions.

Questions​

What is the most important question this topic raises that current discourse tends to avoid or understate?

  • Which assumption in the standard framing of this topic is most likely to be wrong in a 5-year horizon?
  • How does the DePIN or agent-native lens change what matters most about this topic?
  • Which first principle, if violated, would make the analysis of this topic fundamentally incorrect?