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Capital Allocation

What projects are most important to prioritise for what reasons?

Risk vs Reward

Google calculation for re-investment strategy to balance for risk vs reward.

AmountNotes
70%Core business
20%Adjacent
10%Experiments

Context

Questions

What is the most important question this topic raises that current discourse tends to avoid or understate?

  • Which assumption in the standard framing of this topic is most likely to be wrong in a 5-year horizon?
  • How does the DePIN or agent-native lens change what matters most about this topic?
  • Which first principle, if violated, would make the analysis of this topic fundamentally incorrect?