Capital Reinvestment
What is the best way to proportion time and capital between core operations and experimental activities?
| Amount | Reinvestment |
|---|---|
| 70% | Core business |
| 20% | Adjacent |
| 10% | Experimental |
Reinvestment formula taken from Google.
Risk vs Reward Analysis
- Quantify predictions of domain experts with a deep understanding of the job to be done
- Understand how value flows from first principles
- Size bets by documenting thought process to establish probabilities
- Time beats timing
- Delay gratification
- Avoid excessive risk
tip
The best way to win is not to lose.
Links
Questions
What is the most important question this topic raises that current discourse tends to avoid or understate?
- Which assumption in the standard framing of this topic is most likely to be wrong in a 5-year horizon?
- How does the DePIN or agent-native lens change what matters most about this topic?
- Which first principle, if violated, would make the analysis of this topic fundamentally incorrect?