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Decide

Decide when and how to focus your attention.

It is essential to maintain a log of key decisions made and the process that went into them to guard against interpreting reality to fullfill our own narrative.

Everyone makes bad decisions sometimes and even good decisions can lead to bad results, on this we have no choice.

But we always can choose to have the discipline to document our decision making process so we and others can learn from that in the future to improve our processes and make decisions that lead to improved results.

Content

Types

tip

Good decisions must be assessed on their process not their results

Goal

Use Mantra to be in the moment and improve 80/20 decision-making. Create processes to backup decisions making for more complex problems.

tip

Create rituals to get into the right mental state for crital analysis

danger

Ego is the Enemy!!!

Every decision is an investment in the future, consciously made or not.

Goal

The purpose of a decision/bet/experiment is either to

  • Create value/maximise utility
  • Stop a loss of value

What are the boundaries for success?

  • Profit vs Value driven
  • Expectations vs outcomes
  • Risk vs reward
  • Long-term vs short-term reward
  • selfish vs unselfish
  • Grow or consolidate

Strategic Decisions

Game Theory

In game theory, a Bayesian game is a game in which players have incomplete information about the other players. ... Nature randomly chooses a type for each player according to a probability distribution across the players' type spaces. This probability distribution is known by all players (the "common prior assumption")

Bayesian decision theory and traditional Game Theory share a common decision rule—maximizing expected utility—in decisions under risk—where the problem includes a well defined probability for all states of affairs. However, in decisions under uncertainty—where no such probability is given by the problem, which includes traditional problems of game theory—Game Theory insists that rational players satisfy an equilibrium criterion instead. Strategies for different players form a (Nash) equilibrium when, simultaneously, each is a best reply against the strategies adopted by the opponent(s)

Leveraging Data

Using data to sell a compelling story:

Framework

What type of problem are you solving? Cynefin Framework

Are you asking the right questions?

  • Standardised
  • Consistent through discipline

Gather facts, known risks, inputs and volatilities. Create time for deep work. Develop critical path options to compare relative value using a standardised process.

Measure decisions against your cognitive biases.

  • How can technology be used to help explain the need for decisions? and measure the value of their impact?
  • How can technology make decision-making process transparent and efficient?

Record and Review

Have the discipline to create checklist for making important decisions. Such as, which technologies vendor should we use? Having these criteria in place feed into the DNA of your organisation and make it more efficient and effective to onboard new members.

As circumstances change you can revisit the process to reevaluate your decisions and improve the process and outcomes.

  • What did you see?
  • What do you feel?
  • What evaulation criteria?

Evolve progression stories

Rule of Thumb Mantra

Evolve Mantra to combat lazy Route One thinking in times of pressure.

Use mantra/heuristics should be applied?

  • Good is better than Big
  • Don't be a sheep
  • Strong opinions, loosely held

Follow

ProfileNotes
@toddsimkin
@inferencelab

Learn More

URLNotes
Hurts So Good - Paul Bloom
Innovating in Bets - A16z
A leaders framework for decision making - HBR
The CEO of you - Seth Godin
Decisions.com