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Decision Making Thinking

It's easier to accept what others have already learnt.

It's easier to accept dogma.

Techniques

Cynefin Framework

What type of problem are you solving? Cynefin Framework

Definition

Six Thinking Hats

Definition

Second-order Thinking

  • What is the range of likely future outcomes?
  • What outcome do I think will occur?
  • What's the probability I'm right?
  • What does the consensus think?
  • How does my expectation differ from the consensus?
  • How does the current price for the asset comport with the consensus view of the future, and with mine?
  • Is the consensus psychology that's incorporated in the price too bullish or bearish?
  • What will happen to the asset's price if the consensus turns out to be right, and what if I'm right?

Definition

Eisenhower Matrix

Definition

Ladder of Inference

Definition

Decision Matrix

Choose the best option by considering multiple factors. Definition

Confidence and Speed vs Quality

Definition

Hard Choice Model

Definition

Resources