Organisations don't flow when it's participants are second guessing decisions.
Every decision is a bet on the future, even if made unconsciously.
Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom - Viktor Frankl
How Holds Value
How you decide in more important than what you decide
The power of DAOs are that decisions have an immutable transparent history.
So the act of how to decide needs to be considered process map more to help reach rough consensus.
- What process should you use to decide the best use of time and energy?
- How believable are expected outcomes in return for time and effort wagered?
Automate better subconcious responsives so we can better realise the value of having consciousness. Everyone makes bad decisions sometimes and even good decisions can lead to bad results, on this we have no choice.
But we always can choose to have the discipline to document our decision making process so we and others can learn from that in the future to improve our processes and make decisions that lead to improved results.
- Making strategic decisions
- Placing competitive bets
- Routine choices and judgments
- Influencing outcomes
- Consensus Decisions
📄️ Decision Log
Keep a track on conflicts and compromises by logging key decisions made and the process that went into them to guard against interpreting reality to fullfill our own narrative.
Balance with Priorities
In game theory, a Bayesian game is a game in which players have incomplete information about the other players. ... Nature randomly chooses a type for each player according to a probability distribution across the players' type spaces. This probability distribution is known by all players (the "common prior assumption")
Your ego is the enemy when it comes to making good decisions
Bayesian decision theory and traditional Game Theory share a common decision rule—maximizing expected utility—in decisions under risk—where the problem includes a well defined probability for all states of affairs. However, in decisions under uncertainty—where no such probability is given by the problem, which includes traditional problems of game theory—Game Theory insists that rational players satisfy an equilibrium criterion instead. Strategies for different players form a (Nash) equilibrium when, simultaneously, each is a best reply against the strategies adopted by the opponent(s)
- How is the future panning out?
- Where do we need to go
- What is the best way to get there
- Are we on course?
- Is there still value in seeing this idea through?
- What is everything all about anyway?
Map out assumptions of knowledge profile
- Known Unknowns
- Magnitude of unknowns unknowns
The idea being these could be stacked and evaluated against ledger for forecast value when making strategic project decisions on six weekly cycle.
We are a product of our decisions so optimising the decision loop is critical.
Humans interpret the world through stories to understand value and guide decision making.
Every decision is an investment in the future.
Discounted Cash Flow puts a number to a narrative / belief system
- DCF puts a monetary value to an investment narrative.
- An investment narrative of IP to leverage assets informs expected cashflow
- Investment narratives are built upon
- testimony of Subject Matter Experts
- consumer behaviour research
- size of problem/addressable market
The greatest challenge is the reaching critical mass of platform, process and people where you can secure debt at the most attractive terms.
- The core of any business operation is essentially the same
- There is a critical path of decisions to follow to go from startup to critical mass
- You need a network of trustworthy connections to expedite following that critical path
- You can inject any organisation with processes that raise the Organisational Intelligence
- Every organisation requires dashboards that indicate success/failure decisions
- Be your own worst critic, but know you are not defined by your mistakes
How can we create a more rounded standard for appreciating value creation when deciding which project has the greatest merit?
Form decisions by aggregating quantifable thought paths of domain experts
With phones or watches you have devices that can help to recognise triggers and present best practice option follow. To follow a process would provide a micropayment to the author(s) of the process. Where processes would like a git repo/blockchain that would maintain a history of the evolution of thought.
Capability to Deliver
Any decision is only as good as your organisations ability to execute adequately to meet desired benchmarks that deem the experiment a success.
To quanity value reinvent the cash flow statement to respresent the value ledger we maintain in our own minds when weighing up decision options.
Use should be applied?
- Good is better than Big
- Don't be a sheep
- Strong opinions, loosely held
Use Mantra to be in the moment and improve 80/20 decision-making. Create processes to backup decisions making for more complex problems.
Create rituals to get into the right mental state for crital analysis
There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about. - Annie Duke
Every decision is an investment decision. A good decision has good process not necessarily good results. The purpose of a decision/bet/experiment is either to
- Create value/maximise utility
- Stop a loss of value
What are the boundaries for success?
- Profit vs Value driven
- Expectations vs outcomes
- Risk vs reward
- Long-term vs short-term reward
- selfish vs unselfish
- Grow or consolidate
Using data to sell a compelling story:
What type of problem are you solving? Cynefin Framework
Are you asking the right questions?
- Consistent through discipline
Measure decisions against your cognitive biases.
- How can technology be used to help explain the need for decisions? and measure the value of their impact?
- How can technology make decision-making process transparent and efficient?
Record and Review
Have the discipline to create checklist for making important decisions. Such as, which technologies vendor should we use? Having these criteria in place feed into the DNA of your organisation and make it more efficient and effective to onboard new members.
As circumstances change you can revisit the process to reevaluate your decisions and improve the process and outcomes.
- What did you see?
- What do you feel?
- What evaulation criteria?
Evolve progression stories
Don't look at results to judge decisions. Review process.
- Making Better Decisions - Todd Simkin
- Innovating in Bets - A16z
- A Leaders framework for Decision Making
- The CEO of you
- Hurts So Good - Paul Bloom
- Thinking in Bets
- Universal Problems
- Game Theory Strategy
- Thomas Uhm Jane Street Trader
- Pattern Recognition
- Critical Path