All that we are is a consequence of decisions. Every decision is an investment in the future, consciously made or not.
The purpose of a decision/bet/experiment is either to
- Create value/maximise utility
- Stop a loss of value
What are the boundaries for success?
- Profit vs Value driven
- Expectations vs outcomes
- Risk vs reward
- Long-term vs short-term reward
- selfish vs unselfish
- Grow or consolidate
In game theory, a Bayesian game is a game in which players have incomplete information about the other players. ... Nature randomly chooses a type for each player according to a probability distribution across the players' type spaces. This probability distribution is known by all players (the "common prior assumption")
Bayesian decision theory and traditional Game Theory share a common decision rule—maximizing expected utility—in decisions under risk—where the problem includes a well defined probability for all states of affairs. However, in decisions under uncertainty—where no such probability is given by the problem, which includes traditional problems of game theory—Game Theory insists that rational players satisfy an equilibrium criterion instead. Strategies for different players form a (Nash) equilibrium when, simultaneously, each is a best reply against the strategies adopted by the opponent(s)
Discovered Preference, you need experience to know.
Using data to sell a compelling story:
What type of problem are you solving? Cynefin Framework
Are you asking the right questions?
- Consistent through discipline
Measure decisions against your cognitive biases.
- How can technology be used to help explain the need for decisions? and measure the value of their impact?
- How can technology make decision-making process transparent and efficient?
Record and Review
Have the discipline to create checklist for making important decisions. Such as, which technologies vendor should we use? Having these criteria in place feed into the DNA of your organisation and make it more efficient and effective to onboard new members.
As circumstances change you can revisit the process to reevaluate your decisions and improve the process and outcomes.
- What did you see?
- What do you feel?
- What evaulation criteria?
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process. – Annie Duke
Evolve Mantra to combat lazy Route One thinking in times of pressure.
- Good is better than big
- Don't follow dogma
- Strong opinions, loosely held
- Rugby - Wayne Smith
- Hurts So Good, Paul Bloom
- Making Better Decisions, Todd Simkin
- Decide to be Happy
- The CEO of you