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Decisions

All that we are is a consequence of decisions. Every decision is an investment in the future, consciously made or not.

Making Better Decisions, Todd Simkin

Goal

The purpose of a decision/bet/experiment is either to

  • Create value/maximise utility
  • Stop a loss of value

What are the boundaries for success?

  • Profit vs Value driven
  • Expectations vs outcomes
  • Risk vs reward
  • Long-term vs short-term reward
  • selfish vs unselfish
  • Grow or consolidate

Strategic Decisions

Game Theory

In game theory, a Bayesian game is a game in which players have incomplete information about the other players. ... Nature randomly chooses a type for each player according to a probability distribution across the players' type spaces. This probability distribution is known by all players (the "common prior assumption")

Bayesian decision theory and traditional Game Theory share a common decision rule—maximizing expected utility—in decisions under risk—where the problem includes a well defined probability for all states of affairs. However, in decisions under uncertainty—where no such probability is given by the problem, which includes traditional problems of game theory—Game Theory insists that rational players satisfy an equilibrium criterion instead. Strategies for different players form a (Nash) equilibrium when, simultaneously, each is a best reply against the strategies adopted by the opponent(s)

Challenges

Discovered Preference, you need experience to know.

Leveraging Data

Using data to sell a compelling story:

Framework

What type of problem are you solving? Cynefin Framework

Are you asking the right questions?

  • Standardised
  • Consistent through discipline

Gather facts, known risks, inputs and volatilities. Create time for deep work. Develop critical path options to compare relative value using a standardised process.

Measure decisions against your cognitive biases.

  • How can technology be used to help explain the need for decisions? and measure the value of their impact?
  • How can technology make decision-making process transparent and efficient?

Record and Review

Have the discipline to create checklist for making important decisions. Such as, which technologies vendor should we use? Having these criteria in place feed into the DNA of your organisation and make it more efficient and effective to onboard new members.

As circumstances change you can revisit the process to reevaluate your decisions and improve the process and outcomes.

  • What did you see?
  • What do you feel?
  • What evaulation criteria?

Extract Mantra

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process. – Annie Duke

Mantra

Evolve Mantra to combat lazy Route One thinking in times of pressure.

Use mantra/heuristics should be applied?

  • Good is better than big
  • Don't follow dogma
  • Strong opinions, loosely held

Resources

ApplicationNotes
Business Problems
Critical Path
Cashflow

Follow

ProfileNotes
@toddsimkin
@inferencelab