Benefit Ledger — 3 scenarios × 24 months
The full cash-flow model behind the Fund Future page
Conservative Month 9 breakeven · Base Month 6 · Optimistic Month 4. Same formula across all three scenarios.
Scenario Cash Flow (NZD thousands cumulative)
Mo.Cons.BaseOpt.
1-25-25-25
2-42-42-42
3-54.5-54.5-54.5
4-54-45-25
5-54-2520
6-54-580
7-3825130
8-2255180
9-590245
1012130320
1123160370
1234185410
1585260515
18145355665
21245500905
243626621362
Conservative breakeven Month 9 · Base Month 6 · Optimistic Month 4. NZD thousands cumulative net benefit.
| Month | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -25 | -25 | -25 |
| 2 | -42 | -42 | -42 |
| 3 | -54.5 | -54.5 | -54.5 |
| 4 | -54 | -45 | -25 |
| 5 | -54 | -25 | 20 |
| 6 | -54 | -5 | 80 |
| 7 | -38 | 25 | 130 |
| 8 | -22 | 55 | 180 |
| 9 | -5 | 90 | 245 |
| 10 | 12 | 130 | 320 |
| 11 | 23 | 160 | 370 |
| 12 | 34 | 185 | 410 |
| 15 | 85 | 260 | 515 |
| 18 | 145 | 355 | 665 |
| 21 | 245 | 500 | 905 |
| 24 | 362 | 662 | 1362 |
Conservative breakeven Month 9 · Base Month 6 · Optimistic Month 4. NZD thousands cumulative net benefit.
Scenario Assumptions
Conservative (50% realisation)
- Catalogue ROI uplift: 50% of 0.5-1.5% gross-margin compression Stage 1 unlocks → NZD $7.5K/month avg
- Finance + Owner time reclaimed (Monday number): 30% translates to revenue-impacting work → NZD $7K/month
- Year 1 gross benefit: NZD $250K. Year 2: NZD $260K
Base (75% realisation)
- Catalogue ROI uplift: 75% → NZD $12K/month
- Finance + Owner reclaimed: 50% → NZD $12K/month
- Stage 2 starts Month 6 adds NZD $6K/month from Month 9
- Year 1 gross benefit: NZD $400K. Year 2: NZD $400K+
Optimistic (100% realisation + Stage 2 commits Month 6)
- Catalogue ROI uplift 100% + better iteration → NZD $18K/month
- Finance + Owner reclaimed 70% → NZD $17K/month
- Stage 2 commits Month 6: store + FX combined NZD $15K/month from Month 9
- Year 1 gross benefit: NZD $750K. Year 2: NZD $850K+
Decision Logic for Each Scenario
Month 6 cumulative position → on-track signal
- Worse than -NZD $60K → kill switch fires Week 12 (over-budget trigger)
- -NZD $50K to -NZD $54K → on track for Conservative path; monitor closely
- -NZD $40K to -NZD $20K → on track for Base path
- Better than -NZD $20K → on track for Optimistic path; Stage 2 commit window opens
Connect to Kill Switch — Risk-Reward Asymmetry
The cash-flow model assumes Stage 1 ships and continues. If Week 8 trigger fires (Monday number cannot land), Year 1 cost truncates to NZD $30-40K and gross benefit truncates to ~NZD $0.
Risk-reward asymmetry
- Net loss in kill-switch scenario: NZD $30-40K
- Net benefit in success scenario at conservative: NZD $142K
- Risk-reward asymmetry: 3.5× (success-floor / kill-cost)