Decision Summary

What to decide this week

GO verdict · NZD $54K bounded bet · 4 GO conditions · 5 next actions in order.

CRITICAL

Monday number cannot land before Wednesday 8am for 4 consecutive weeks at Week 8 → PAUSE Stage 1; sunk cost NZD $30-40K; decision owner CFO.

Cost to walk away: Stop. Do not invest further.

The ONE Thing

Build the Unified Merchandising Intelligence (UC1) data foundation in Stage 1. Every other improvement is built on this — the named Data Siloes problem gates all four problem areas.

90-Day Experiment

Stage 1 (UC1 + UC2) — Unified Merchandising Intelligence + Catalogue saleId ROI Dashboard. NZD $54,500 Stage 1 cost; NZD $108K Year 1 total.

Success Metric

Monday number auto-delivered to CFO inbox by 8am Monday for 4 consecutive weeks by Week 16. Falsifiable. Dated. Named owner: CFO + Finance Lead.

Stage 1 Investment

NZD $54,500 Stage 1 · NZD $108,000 Year 1 · NZD $30-40K walk-away cost if Week 8 kill switch fires.

Conditions for GO on Stage 1

1. CFO + Owner signed off on Stage 1 NZD $54K budget with kill-switch agreement

Condition 1 of 4

Window: Day 7 — owner CFO

2. POS vendor confirmed API or scheduled-export access feasible (in writing)

Condition 2 of 4

Window: Day 14 — owner IT contact + CFO

3. Documentation Sprint owners named per knowledge domain (supplier history, pricing logic, margin floor, catalogue selection, store-mix)

Condition 3 of 4

Window: Day 14 — owner Owner + Buying Lead

4. BI substrate selected from shortlist (Metabase / Hex / Power BI Premium) with quote in hand

Condition 4 of 4

Window: Day 14 — owner Dream team + CFO

Stage Sequence

Stage 11-4 months

NZD $108K Year 1

Trigger: 4 GO conditions met

Outcome: UC1 + UC2 live; Monday number on Monday 8am × 4 wks

Kill: Week 8 / Day 30 / Week 12 — named cost-to-walk-away

Stage 24-9 months

NZD $187K cumulative

Trigger: Stage 1 kill switch NOT fired

Outcome: UC4 + UC5 — Store + FX in production

Kill: Stage 1 unstable OR budget overrun

Stage 38-12 months

NZD $333K cumulative

Trigger: Stage 2 success + Documentation Sprint complete

Outcome: UC3 AI Buyer Brief in pilot

Kill: Brief quality below human baseline

Stage	Months	Investment	Trigger	Outcome	Kill Signal
Stage 1	1-4 months	NZD $108K Year 1	4 GO conditions met	UC1 + UC2 live; Monday number on Monday 8am × 4 wks	Week 8 / Day 30 / Week 12 — named cost-to-walk-away
Stage 2	4-9 months	NZD $187K cumulative	Stage 1 kill switch NOT fired	UC4 + UC5 — Store + FX in production	Stage 1 unstable OR budget overrun
Stage 3	8-12 months	NZD $333K cumulative	Stage 2 success + Documentation Sprint complete	UC3 AI Buyer Brief in pilot	Brief quality below human baseline

Next Actions

01Day 1-3 — CFO + Dream team kickoff meeting to confirm verbatim concern framing and decision-discipline framework
02Day 2-7 — IT-vendor discovery: POS API + ERP API + ESP access (45-minute call each); name the IT contact
03Day 5-14 — BI substrate evaluation: 3 vendor shortlist + Crackerjack-context demo
04Day 7-14 — Documentation Sprint kickoff: name 5 knowledge-domain owners; schedule 4-hour sessions
05Day 10-14 — Stage 1 contract: Dream team scope + kill switch + milestone calendar + payment schedule
06Day 14 — Stage 1 GO/NO-GO decision based on the 4 Conditions

Put this to work

Stress-test this GO/NO-GO with your own AI assistant

For the CFO

Copy this prompt. Paste into Claude, ChatGPT, or any AI assistant. The page context is already loaded — send it and get analysis tailored to your role.

I'm the CFO of a 15-store NZ discount retailer. I need to make a GO/NO-GO decision on a 90-day BI investment within 7 days.

THE PROPOSAL:
Stage 1 budget: NZD $54,500 over 90 days.
Goal: Monday merchandising report auto-delivered to my inbox by 8am, 4 consecutive weeks by Week 16. Currently 7-13 hours manual; arrives Wednesday.
Kill switch: If the Monday number does not land by Week 8, stop. Walk-away cost NZD $30-40K.
Year 1 total if Stage 1 succeeds: NZD $108K.
Conservative payback Month 9. Risk-reward asymmetry 3.5×.

THE FOUR GO CONDITIONS I must verify by Day 14:
1. Stage 1 budget signed with kill-switch agreement (CFO + Owner, Day 7).
2. POS API access confirmed in writing — the highest-risk INFERRED input (IT contact, Day 14).
3. 5 Documentation Sprint owners named — supplier history, pricing logic, margin floor, catalogue selection, store-mix (Day 14).
4. BI substrate vendor selected from shortlist — Metabase, Hex, or Power BI Premium (Day 14).

THE NAMED VERBATIM CONCERN driving the whole proposal: "Attempting to predict the future to understand ROI on investing in the future — most have zero idea how to invest in tech."

What questions should I ask at the Day 1 kickoff that test the 4 GO conditions more sharply than the proposal does? What is the single most likely reason the Week 8 kill switch fires, and how do I detect that risk before Day 14?

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