Evidence and Confidence Gates
Which claims are strong enough to carry the decision?
Confidence is a source trail plus a clear limit. If a claim cannot be traced, it cannot carry the ask.
Claim Tags
| Tag | Meaning | Can Carry The Decision? |
|---|---|---|
VERIFIED | Direct source, current artifact, or measured data supports it. | Yes. |
INFERRED | Reasonable conclusion from named evidence. | Yes, if the inference is visible. |
ASSUMPTION | Needed for planning but not yet proven. | No. It must become a validation question. |
CONTRADICTED | Evidence conflicts or weakens the claim. | No. It must be named as risk. |
Evidence Ledger Row
| Field | Rule |
|---|---|
| Claim | One sentence. |
| Source | File path, URL, interview, or dataset. |
| Date | When the source was captured or checked. |
| Tag | One confidence tag. |
| Implication | What action changes if this is true. |
| Limit | What the source does not prove. |
| Review trigger | What would cause re-check. |
Gates
- No report section may introduce a major claim absent from the evidence ledger.
- No numeric claim may omit source and confidence tag.
- No market urgency claim may omit time horizon.
- No ROI claim may omit conservative case and kill signal.
- No client-private proof may appear in public discovery without explicit public-story status.
Contradictions
Do not hide contradiction. Use it to improve the ask.
| Contradiction | Response |
|---|---|
| Source conflict | Show both and lower confidence. |
| Missing data | Convert the claim into a day-14 prerequisite. |
| Strong upside but weak proof | Keep as option value, not core case. |
| High confidence but high risk | Keep the claim and strengthen the kill switch. |
Context
Questions
- Which claim would collapse the ask if it were false?
- What has to be checked before money moves?