Business Ideas

Which route will turn lived friction into evidence before it earns commitment?

Problem: Founders often mix inspiration, evaluation, specialist design, and persuasion into one premature plan.

Question: Which route matches the decision you need to make now?

Decision: Start with the narrowest route that can reduce your largest uncertainty.

The Spine

1. Business Experiments — notice friction, capture a candidate, and design a bounded test before building.
2. Business Idea Evaluation — convert evidence and assumptions into ADVANCE, TEST, PARK, or KILL.
3. Opportunity Atlas — compare evidence-qualified wedges and choose the cheapest reversible uncertainty test.
4. Power Law Checklist — inspect whether a proven opportunity could create unusually concentrated value.
5. AI On Crypto Rails — explore that specialist architecture only after the beneficiary and demand are credible.
6. Venture Presentation — turn a supported venture thesis into a persuasion asset after evaluation.

Zoom Out

• Innovation Strategy — return to the wider innovation territory.
• Business Strategy — connect a surviving idea to strategic choices.

Changes my mind: A child route stops owning the reader job described here or a recurring founder decision has no route.

Context

• depends-on Purpose — choose whose outcome makes an idea worth attention.
• applies-to Business Strategy — connect an evidenced idea to the wider choices a business must make.
• pairs-with Performance — define what observable result would justify further commitment.
• pairs-with Reality — keep idea development anchored to observed conditions and uncertainty.

Questions

Next question: Is your largest uncertainty the problem, the demand, the business model, or the way you will reach the beneficiary?

• Which route can reduce that uncertainty without committing to a build?