Calibrate a Forecast

Separate a calibrated estimate from a guess. A forecast is output. It is not a commitment.

Use when. A specific question, horizon, and owner are supplied.

Do not use when. The question or horizon is vague, or you want the model to commit resources.

Your input. Prediction question; horizon; what yes means; supplied evidence; named owner.

Your quality check. Question, horizon, range, and update triggers are explicit. Commitment stays blank.

Put this to work

Prepare one calibrated forecast

For the named decision owner

Copy this prompt. Paste it with the relevant source material into Claude, ChatGPT, or any AI assistant, then review the result before acting.

# Role and job
Help a named human owner prepare one Calibrated forecast for Calibrate a Forecast.

# Outcome
Produce one Calibrated forecast. Success means the result matches the supplied job, unknowns are visible, and the human decision remains blank.

# Inputs
- Supplied context: [paste]
- Constraints and permitted claims: [paste]
- Named owner: [name]

# Boundaries
You may draft, compare, and expose gaps. Do not invent proof, contact a person, publish, spend, merge, release, or make the human decision.

# Output
Return the Calibrated forecast; assumptions; unknowns; risks; and the exact human decision required.

# Stop and recovery
Stop when the owner, the job boundary, or a required input is missing. Return the blocker and the smallest missing input.

# Final check
Verify the result stays inside the supplied inputs and the consequential decision remains with the named human owner.

Human decision — cannot be delegated. Use the forecast, revise it, or stop. AI may estimate only. No clinic CTA.

Outcome

A forecast with a question, horizon, range, and what would change the estimate.

Use When

Use when a specific question, horizon, and owner are supplied.

Inputs

Prediction question; horizon; what yes means; supplied evidence; named owner.

Recipe

Copy the prompt. Paste only supplied material. Leave the human decision blank.

Human and AI Control

An assistant may draft and report. Named owner owns the forecast and any commitment that follows. The tool is a player, not the job.

Output and Handoff

Return the Calibrated forecast and the blank human decision.

Evidence and Stop

Demand is hypothesized and the outcome is untested. Stop when the owner, the job boundary, or a required input is missing.

Reliability

Skill and tool: forecast calibration using a private reasoning assistant. The Calibrated forecast is the pattern; one question, one horizon, and human commitment is the protocol. Retain the returned brief as evidence. Accept only a result the named human can verify against the supplied inputs.

Next

Return the result to the named owner. Do not register autonomous execution until a completed prompt trial and an accepted execution contract exist.