Assumption Test

An assumption test makes one consequential belief visible before it quietly governs a larger commitment.

• Use this when: a promising move depends on something important being true.
• Do not use this when: the immediate problem is a repeated pattern with visible feedback.
• It helps you notice: the weakest belief underneath the proposed move.
• It may hide or distort: interactions between causes outside the isolated belief.
• Try this bounded move: write the weakest critical assumption, then test it with one reversible action.
• Watch this evidence: a direct observation that strengthens, weakens, or replaces the assumption.
• Pair or compare it with: Feedback loop.
• Stop, revise, or switch when: the same consequence repeats even after the assumption changes.

Play one bounded round and keep the choice, stop rule, and interpretation of evidence under human authority.

Context

• Mental Models — choose another visible lens.
• Beliefs — state confidence and what would change your mind.
• Decisions — add scrutiny when commitment or risk grows.