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Problems

The Metacrisis: Technology that empowers can also destroy. We shape our tools, then our tools shape us.

Forces that are converging to accelerate transformation of our world.

  1. Tech risk — AI, biotech, cyber weapons getting cheaper and more powerful
  2. Environmental collapse — Exponential growth on a finite planet
  3. System fragility — Global supply chains one shock away from breaking
  4. Coordination failure — Everyone optimizing locally, losing globally
  5. Financialization — Capital extracts instead of funds production

The meta of the matter is what matters most.

Categories​

The Truth​

Coordination requires agreement on facts. When facts become contested, coordination becomes impossible.

Epistemic FailureResult
Lost institutional trustNo shared basis for action
Information warfareWeaponized uncertainty
Algorithm-curated realityPopulations living in different worlds
Expertise erosionNo one trusted to arbitrate

Truth is the meta-layer. When it fails, everything built on it fails.

The Meta Problem​

The hardest problem is identifying which problem to solve. Most effort gets wasted on:

  • Symptoms pretending to be causes
  • Urgent things that don't matter
  • Problems framed by others for their benefit

Before solving, perceive correctly.

Walk Upstream​

1. What annoyed you? (trigger)
         ↓
2. What was the actual problem? (root cause)
         ↓
3. How should it work? (vision)
         ↓
4. What would success look like? (artifacts)
         ↓
5. Will you bet on fixing it? (appetite)

If you won't put money on it, it's not your problem to solve.

The Consensus Gap​

"I see a problem" → "We agree on THE problem"

This is where coordination dies.

FailureSound
Different perception"That's not a problem for me"
Different priorities"This other thing is more urgent"
Different definitions"When you say X, I hear Y"
Different incentives"Solving this helps you, not me"

To build consensus: share raw data, find root causes together, commit only when aligned.

Problem Types​

What type of problem are you solving? See Systems Thinking for frameworks.

TypeDescriptionApproach
SimpleCause and effect well-definedBest practice exists
ComplicatedRequires domain expertiseBest practice analysis
ComplexNo obvious pattern, experts don't existExperimentation proves what works
ChaoticCan't understand cause/effect relationProbe for black swan exposure
NP-HardCan't solve in polynomial timeVerify solutions quickly

Problem Statement​

If I had an hour to solve a problem I'd spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions — Albert Einstein

A problem statement should describe an undesirable gap between the current-state level of performance and the desired future-state level of performance.

Mantra

A problem well stated is half solved

Checklist​

  • What is the problem that needs to be solved?
  • Where is the problem observed? (location, product)
  • What is the origin of the problem?
  • Who is impacted? (customers, businesses, departments)
  • When does the problem occur? (triggers)
  • Why the problem matters, and why it prevents progress
  • How is the problem observed? (symptoms)
  • How often is the problem observed? (error rate, magnitude, trend)
  • Quantify loss of money, time, quality, environmental, motivation
  • Importance to individuals and organisations to quantify urgency

Gap Analysis​

A problem statement should include absolute or relative measures of the problem that quantify the gap. Include everything from financial costs, damaged morale to literal physical objects blocking a path.

Mantra

Measure what matters

Playbook​

A problem is the gap between where you are and where you want to be. The size of the gap is the size of the opportunity. Problems are raw material. Questions are the catalyst that converts them into opportunities.

  • Perspective
  • Potential
  • Platform
  • Product
  • Performance
  • Progress

Context​

Resources​