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Superforecasting

Superforecasting is the art and science of making accurate predictions about future events by employing disciplined, evidence-based methods. It is grounded in probabilistic thinking, intellectual humility, and continuous learning.

Context​

  • Science: Knowledge about the nature of the world
  • Technology: Knowledge about how to change the world
  • Investing: Balance capital between Science and Technology
  • Industries: Progress of Science and Technology
  • Nation States: Optimisation of Assets and Resources

Principles​

Below are the main principles and steps to practice superforecasting effectively.

  1. Think in Probabilities
    • Avoid binary predictions; assign probabilities to outcomes and update them as new information arises.
    • Use Bayesian reasoning to refine forecasts.
  2. Break Down Problems Decompose complex questions into smaller, manageable sub-questions (e.g., using Fermi estimation).
  3. Update Beliefs Dynamically
    • Treat beliefs as hypotheses that can be revised based on evidence.
    • Embrace "strong opinions loosely held" to adapt quickly to new data.
  4. Avoid Cognitive Biases Actively counter biases like overconfidence, anchoring, and confirmation bias.
  5. Balance Perspectives Combine inside views (specific expertise) with outside views (historical data or broader trends).
  6. Track Accuracy Measure the quality of predictions using tools like Brier scores to identify areas for improvement.
  7. Be Open-Minded and Humble Recognize the complexity of reality and approach forecasting with intellectual humility.

Process​

Backward Reasoning: Imagining an ideal future and reasoning backward to identify potential obstacles or risks that could prevent humanity from achieving that outcome.

Forward Modeling: Reasoning through and modeling what societal, economic, and technological changes are to come. This includes anticipating rapid advancements and their cascading effects.

  • Frame questions precisely with specific timeframes and measurable outcomes (e.g., "What is the likelihood of X happening by Y date?").
  • Collect diverse data from multiple sources, including historical trends, expert opinions, and current developments.
  • Decompose the main question into smaller components to make it more manageable. Example: To estimate a city's EV adoption rate, analyze factors like infrastructure readiness, consumer preferences, and policy incentives.
  • Start with a base rate from historical data or similar scenarios before adjusting for current factors.
  • Use probabilistic reasoning to estimate the likelihood of each potential outcome.
  • Regularly revise forecasts as new information becomes available or circumstances change.
  • Keep a record of your reasoning, assumptions, and probability estimates for future review.
  • Work in diverse teams to incorporate multiple perspectives and reduce blind spots.
  • Evaluate the accuracy of past predictions and refine your process based on lessons learned.

Discipline​

Disciplines for Effective Superforecasting:

  1. Curiosity: Maintain an insatiable desire to understand how systems work and ask "what if" questions.
  2. Numeracy: Be comfortable working with probabilities and statistical concepts.
  3. Open-Mindedness: Be willing to consider alternative viewpoints and revise your opinions.
  4. Resilience: Cultivate grit to persist through uncertainty and setbacks.
  5. Communication: Share forecasts clearly and collaborate effectively with others.
  6. Reflection: Regularly review past forecasts to identify strengths and weaknesses in your approach.