Predictions
What is the world going to look like in three years? How can you prepare?
The future already exists, we just don't know how to sell it. Are you asking the right questions to engage with others to make meaningful progress?
Big Questions
- How are AI advancements and disruptive technology impacting your systems for success?
- Which competitors are using AI to redefine your industry's economics?
- Where are you still focused on human productivity rather than exploring Agent-Human coordination?
- What workflows will break if AGI were to arrive tomorrow?
- Are you asking the right questions to unlock meaningful progress?
Subject Expertise
How can you engineer systems that accurately predict the future?
- Practice: Play prediction games
- Forecasting: Imagine risks and potential
- Probability: Calculate the odds
Gamify Commitment
Bets gamify commitment
- Futarchy
- Explore or exploit?
- One-way or reversible?
Predictions
(Time Horizons: Short=2-5Y, Medium=5-10Y, Long=10Y+ | Conviction: 1=Speculative → 5=Imminent)
AI-Driven Societal Shifts
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Signs/Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI Agents dominate 95% of online negotiations/agreements | 4/5 | Short | Rise of AutoGPT-style agents, onchain MEV bots |
| AI exposes organizational inefficiencies (flattened hierarchies) | 5/5 | Short | Middle management layoffs at tech giants |
| AI replaces more jobs than it creates | 4/5 | Short | ChatGPT reducing entry-level writing/analysis jobs |
| Mental health crisis from purpose vacuum | 3/5 | Medium | Rising global depression rates post-automation |
Crypto x AI Integration
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Signs/Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billions of niche Crypto Agents form autonomous feedback loops | 3/5 | Medium | Growth of DePIN networks like Helium |
| Tokenized attention loops replace ad-based monetization | 4/5 | Medium | SocialFi experiments (Farcaster, Friend.Tech) |
| AI-optimized longevity protocols become standard | 3/5 | Long | Emerging projects like VitaDAO |
Labor & Economic Transformation
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Signs/Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluid workforces thrive in chaos (gig economy 2.0) | 4/5 | Short | 78% YoY growth in AI-enhanced freelancing platforms |
| Premium pricing for "human experience" services | 5/5 | Medium | Luxury travel sector growing 3× faster than GDP |
| Manufacturing resurgence through custom AI software | 3/5 | Medium | Tesla's humanoid robot prototypes |
Existential Evolution
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Signs/Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inner Space exploration becomes primary human frontier | 2/5 | Long | VR meditation apps growing 210% YoY |
| Hyperstitional AI creates self-fulfilling prophecies | 3/5 | Medium | Meme stock/GME phenomena |
| Soul/identity becomes scarce digital commodity | 4/5 | Medium | ENS domain registrations up 590% |
Implementation Phases
Phase 1 (2024-2026):
- Build agentic infrastructure (DePIN Tech)
- Establish tokenized reputation systems
- Develop cross-chain AI negotiation protocols
Phase 2 (2027-2030):
- Deploy phygital experience layers
- Scale autonomous feedback loops
- Implement UBI-through-AI-task systems
Phase 3 (2031+):
- Full Unixification of physical/digital worlds
- Cultural systems replace economic incentives as primary motivators
- Emergence of soul-bound AI companions