Decision Making

Life is a constant stream of decisions. Flow is the ultimate success

1. Ask Better Questions
2. Sell Engaging Stories
3. Engineer Better Systems
4. Make Meaningful Progress

Read the play then out-think and out-work to eliminate threats and maximize returns from opportunities.

Conviction

Good decisions must be judged on the process for making them not their outcomes.

Feedback Loops

Recognise dis-ease and create systems to break out of destructive loops and switch into a growth-mindset.

• Reinforcement mechanisms: Habits and feedback loops that lock in behaviors.
• Cognitive patterns: Overthinking or emotional reactivity that traps decision-making.
• Intervention strategies: Awareness, habit substitution, and reframing core beliefs.

Belief System

Cognitive-Emotive Loops

This model describes a cyclical pattern where thoughts and emotions fuel each other, often leading to stuck behaviors. For example:

• Cognitive trigger: A belief like "I'm underpaid and undervalued".
• Emotive response: Anger or resentment, which reinforces the initial thought.
• Behavioural outcome: Avoidance or entitlement, perpetuating the loop.

Breaking this loop requires self-awareness to recognize the pattern, acceptance to reduce self-judgment, and interruption through body-focused attention or cognitive restructuring.

Habit Loops

Popularized by Charles Duhigg and others, this framework explains how habits form through a three-step cycle:

1. Cue: A trigger (e.g., a notification on your phone) prompts action.
2. Routine: The habitual behavior (e.g., scrolling social media).
3. Reward: A dopamine-driven reinforcement (e.g., momentary distraction) ().

To modify habits, interventions target the cue (e.g., removing triggers) or reward (e.g., substituting healthier alternatives).

OODA Loops

These loops describe how behavior is shaped by responses to actions:

• Balancing loops: Stabilize behavior (e.g., slowing down when a car speed monitor shows you're over the limit).
• Reinforcing loops: Amplify behavior (e.g., social media "likes" encouraging more posts).

Effective feedback loops rely on timely measurement and actionable comparisons (e.g., tracking progress toward a goal).

Overthinking and Decision Paralysis

Constant questioning of life choices can create a "loop" of indecision. Key features include:

• Overanalysis: Repeatedly weighing options without resolution ().
• Fear of regret: Avoiding decisions to prevent potential mistakes.
• Emotional exhaustion: The loop drains mental energy, worsening self-doubt.

Strategies to escape this cycle include setting decision deadlines and embracing "good enough" choices.

Double-Loop Learning

This meta-cognitive process involves questioning underlying assumptions:

• Single-loop learning: Adjusting actions to fix errors (e.g., working harder after a failure).
• Double-loop learning: Re-examining core beliefs (e.g., "Is this goal still meaningful?").

Context

• Coach: Find more knowledge others that can help you make progress within a given context
• Investing: Time, Energy, Capital and Goodwill.
• Reinvestment: Growth Strategy
• Governance: Direction of culture, utilization of state assets.
• Decision Levers: Direction, acceleration and deceleration, more or less energy.
• Decision Fatigue: Tackle complexity in the right frame of mind
• Decision Triggers: Signal through the noise
• Decision OODA Loop: Optimize feedback loop of consciousness
• Decision Algorithms: Don't reinvent the wheel
• Decision Frameworks: Take different perspectives of a problem
• Decision Automation: Reduce decision fatigue
• Decision Priorities: Feel at at ease (in flow) with commitments
• Decision Journal: Continuously improve process.
• Poker: The most effective way to improve decision making processes?

Engineer systems and practice better habits to replace FUD with Courage Confidence and Conviction.

System