Outcome Map
What does success look like when anyone can turn a skill into an operating business?
Success Measures
| # | Outcome | Measure | Target | Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Idea to venture speed | Clock time from input to operating app | < 1 day | Months (manual) |
| 2 | Composition ratio | Shared platform code / total venture code | > 80% | Unknown |
| 3 | Algorithm activation | Algorithms wired into creation flow | 9/9 | 0/9 |
| 4 | Cross-domain proof | Second venture (different domain) boots cleanly | Pass | Untested |
| 5 | WorkChart execution | Receipts recorded within first week of launch | > 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Founder focus | Time spent on domain craft vs infrastructure | > 80% craft | ~20% craft |
Obstacles
| # | Obstacle | Impact | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sprout Generator Phase 0 not complete | Cannot trigger venture creation — entire pipeline blocked | Engineering |
| 2 | Nine algorithms designed but none wired | No scoring, no gating, no optimization — ideas enter but never validated | Intelligence Engine |
| 3 | No craftsperson validation | Persona is theoretical — struggling moment unverified | Dream Team |
| 4 | AI-generated business components unvalidated | Value props, ICPs, market analysis may be low quality without eval gates | Intelligence Engine |
| 5 | venture_business_ideas entry point unwired | Table exists in schema but no flow connects input to output | Engineering |
Investigations
| # | Question | Method | Owner | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Does Sprout Generator Phase 1 complete? | Run generator for berleytrails — binary pass/fail | Engineering | Must pass before any VIG work |
| 2 | Does vfl-force-potential score ideas correctly? | Wire algorithm to venture_business_ideas, test with 5 sample ideas | Intelligence Engine | Scoring matches manual assessment |
| 3 | Is the craftsperson persona real? | Find 1 real person, run Four Moments interview | Dream Team | Struggling moment confirmed |
| 4 | Does eval-runner gate AI quality? | Generate 10 value propositions, score against manual review | Intelligence Engine | > 70% agreement with human judgment |
| 5 | Does optimal-stopping know when to stop? | Feed domain research pipeline, compare gate timing to expert opinion | Intelligence Engine | Within 2x of expert timing |
Key Finding
Everything downstream depends on one binary outcome: Sprout Generator Phase 1 passes. Until berleytrails boots, the Business Idea Generator is architecture without a foundation. After it passes, the critical risk shifts from infrastructure to quality — can the nine algorithms produce business components sharp enough for a real founder to act on?
Context
- Value Stream Map — Next: where does time die in business creation?
- A2A Sprout Generator — The prerequisite: infrastructure layer
- Business Development — The framework this generator automates