Quantum Industry
What happens when we compute with nature's rules instead of against them?
Quantum technology exploits superposition, entanglement, and interference to solve problems classical computers cannot. Three domains are emerging: compute, sensing, and cryptography.
Start Here
| If you want to... | Start with... |
|---|---|
| Understand the three domains | Quantum Domains |
| See the timeline | Maturity Curve |
| Explore crypto implications | Quantum and Crypto |
Quantum Domains
| Domain | What It Does | Maturity | Key Players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum Computing | Solve optimization, simulation, ML problems | Early | IBM, Google, IonQ, Rigetti |
| Quantum Sensing | Ultra-precise measurement (gravity, magnetic, time) | Emerging | Q-CTRL, ColdQuanta |
| Quantum Cryptography | Unbreakable key distribution (QKD) | Commercial | ID Quantique, Toshiba |
The Three Flows in Quantum
PROBLEM → QUANTUM SOLVER → PROOF → RESULT
↓ ↓ ↓ ↓
Classical Quantum Verify Classical
encoding advantage result output
| Flow Stage | Quantum Implementation | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Problem | Encode classical problem for quantum | Now |
| Solver | Run on quantum hardware | 2025-2030 (NISQ), 2030+ (fault-tolerant) |
| Proof | Verify quantum advantage achieved | Emerging |
| Result | Extract classical output | Now |
Maturity Curve
| Phase | Timeline | Capability | Investment Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| NISQ (Now) | 2024-2028 | Noisy, limited qubits, specific problems | Early-stage, high risk |
| Early Advantage | 2028-2032 | Useful for optimization, chemistry | Growth stage |
| Fault-Tolerant | 2032+ | General quantum computing | Infrastructure plays |
The honest assessment: Most quantum computing hype is 5-10 years early. Quantum sensing and cryptography are closer to practical.
Quantum and Crypto
The threat: Quantum computers could break current cryptography (RSA, ECC) that secures blockchain.
The timeline: Likely 10-15 years before cryptographically-relevant quantum computers exist.
The response:
- Post-quantum cryptography standards (NIST finalized 2024)
- Blockchain projects migrating to quantum-resistant algorithms
- Quantum key distribution for high-security applications
| Crypto Primitive | Quantum Threat | Migration Path |
|---|---|---|
| RSA | Broken by Shor's algorithm | Lattice-based cryptography |
| ECC | Broken by Shor's algorithm | Hash-based signatures |
| SHA-256 | Weakened by Grover's (2x speedup) | Larger hash sizes |
| Symmetric (AES) | Weakened by Grover's | Larger key sizes |
Opportunity Analysis
Aggregate: 5.5 / 10 | Classification: Watch and Wait
| Dimension | Score | Key Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 7.0 | Potentially transformative if it works |
| Technology Disruption | 6.0 | Real but timeline uncertain |
| VVFL Alignment | 4.5 | Feedback loops too slow currently |
| Competitive Position | 5.0 | Capital intensive, talent scarce |
| Timing Risk | 5.0 | High risk of being too early |
Verdict: Monitor quantum sensing (nearer term). Position for quantum-resistant crypto. Wait on quantum computing unless deep expertise.
Deep Dives
| Section | What's There |
|---|---|
| Materials Industry | Superconductors, photonics for quantum |
| Blockchain | Quantum threat to crypto |
| Science | Quantum mechanics foundations |
Context
- Materials Industry — Materials enabling quantum
- Blockchain — Quantum cryptography implications
- Space Industry — Quantum sensing for navigation
- Science — Physics foundations
The Meta Question
"When quantum advantage arrives, which problems become trivial — and which industries get disrupted first?"