What to measure across defense, civilian security, and justice.
| Category | What It Measures | Traditional | AI-Augmented |
|---|
| Safety | Crime and threat levels | Reported incidents | Detected + prevented incidents |
| Financial | Cost efficiency | Spend per capita | Prevention ROI, cost avoidance |
| Operational | Response effectiveness | Response time | Prediction accuracy, false alarm rate |
| Justice | System outcomes | Conviction rate | Recidivism, reintegration rate |
Safety Metrics
Defense
| Metric | Traditional | AI-Augmented |
|---|
| Force readiness | Personnel count | Autonomous capability + personnel |
| Threat detection | Human intelligence | Sensor fusion + AI classification |
| Response time | Hours to days | Minutes (targeting: hours --> minutes via Maven) |
| Cost per engagement | $1M+ (missile) | $500-$3,000 (drone) |
Civilian
| Metric | Traditional | AI-Augmented |
|---|
| Crime rate | Reported per 100K | Detected + reported per 100K |
| Detection rate | 20-40% of incidents | 60-80% with camera networks |
| Response time | 7-12 minutes average | Real-time alert, sub-minute |
| Prevention rate | Unmeasured | Incidents averted by prediction |
Justice
| Metric | Traditional | AI-Augmented |
|---|
| Recidivism | 68% within 3 years (US) | Target: 20% (Nordic benchmark) |
| Reintegration | Employment rate post-release | Skill match + employment rate |
| Case backlog | Months to years | AI triage reduces by 40-60% |
Cross-Country Comparison
| Metric | United States | Norway | Finland |
|---|
| Incarceration rate (per 100K) | 600+ | ~60 | ~60 |
| Cost per inmate/year | $35,000-$100,000 | ~$130,000 | ~$80,000 |
| Recidivism (2 years) | ~44% | 18% | ~33% |
| Recidivism (5 years) | ~77% | 25% | ~33% |
| Total corrections spend/year | $81 billion | -- | -- |
Norway spends more per prisoner but recovers it in lower crime and productive citizens. The US spends less per prisoner but pays far more in re-arrest, re-trial, and re-incarceration.
Financial Metrics
Cost of Crime
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|
| US annual crime cost | $4.7-5.8 trillion | University of Chicago |
| US policing + corrections | ~$300 billion | BJS |
| Cost per US inmate/year | $35,000-$100,000 | Varies by state |
| Electronic monitoring/year | $1,800-$9,000 | Per monitored individual |
| Insurance discount (cameras) | 5-20% premium reduction | Industry average |
ROI Benchmarks
| Investment | Return |
|---|
| Security camera system | 50% crime reduction in monitored areas |
| AI video analytics | 90% false alarm reduction |
| Electronic monitoring | 85-95% cost savings vs incarceration |
| Predictive policing | 20-30% crime reduction (contested) |
Cost Asymmetry (Defense)
The structural disruption. Attack costs are collapsing relative to defense.
| Attack | Cost | Defense | Cost | Ratio |
|---|
| FPV drone | $500 | Interceptor missile | $1M+ | 2000:1 |
| Drone swarm (100 units) | $50,000 | Counter-swarm system | $500K+ | 10:1 |
| AI-guided drone | $550 | Electronic warfare | $50K+ session | 100:1 |
| Cyber attack (AI) | Near zero | SOC team response | $500K+/year | Infinite |
NATO Spending Surge
Defense budgets rising faster than at any point since the Cold War.
| Year | NATO Average (% GDP) | European + Canada Spend |
|---|
| 2014 | 1.43% | $419B (2023 prices) |
| 2024 | 2.02% | $516B |
| 2025 | 2.76% | $607B |
| 2035 target | 5.0% | Estimated $1.5T+ |
Poland leads at 4.48% of GDP. All NATO allies now meet the 2% minimum for the first time.
Rehabilitation Market
| Segment | Market | Status | Conviction |
|---|
| Electronic monitoring | $2.18B (growing 8%) | Mature | High |
| AI rehabilitation | Nascent | Pilot programs | Medium-High |
| Prison communication reform | ~$1.5B | Disrupting | Medium |
| Smart prison operations | Emerging | Growing | Medium |
| Recidivism prediction (ethical AI) | Emerging | Contested | Low |
Opportunity Assessment
Scoring Dimensions
| Dimension | Weight | Score | Evidence |
|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 20% | 8.0 | $3.1T combined TAM across domains |
| Technology Disruption | 20% | 7.5 | AI vision, drones, autonomous systems |
| VVFL Alignment | 25% | 6.0 | Loop works but privacy limits DePIN |
| Competitive Position | 20% | 6.0 | Government-dominated, regulatory barriers |
| Timing Risk | 15% | 5.0 | Ethics debates vs geopolitical urgency |
Aggregate: 6.5/10 -- Monitor Closely
Watch Signals
| Signal | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|
| Defense AI spending | Budget increase (24% YoY for autonomous) | Regulatory freeze |
| Camera network density | Cross-community sharing grows | Privacy legislation limits |
| Recidivism tech | Pilot programs scale | Political resistance to reform |
| Drone costs | Sub-$100 disposable drones | Counter-drone tech neutralizes |
| NATO spending | 5% GDP commitment by 2035 | Alliance fractures |
| Principle | What to Measure |
|---|
| Deterrence requires certainty | Detection rate, camera coverage density |
| Prevention beats punishment | Prevention spend ratio, incidents averted |
| Surveillance compounds | Sensor network growth, cross-reference hits |
| Trust has costs | Case processing time, appeal rate |
| Rehabilitation returns value | Recidivism rate, post-release employment |
Context