Security Players
The incumbents, insurgents, and reformers reshaping safety across defense, civilian security, and justice.
The Transformation
| Player Type | Current Position | 2028 Position | Disruption Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense Primes | Dominant | AI-augmented | Medium |
| Defense Tech Startups | Growing fast | Core providers | High |
| Security Services | Stable | AI-disrupted | High |
| Security Tech | Growing | Platform dominant | High |
| Prison Industry | Entrenched | Pressured | Medium |
| Justice Reform Tech | Nascent | Growing | High potential |
Defense Players
Incumbents (Primes)
| Company | AI Strategy | Market Position |
|---|---|---|
| Lockheed Martin | CCA program (1,000 AI-piloted jets, $6B), maritime AI surveillance | Largest defense contractor |
| Northrop Grumman | Autonomous systems, collaborative autonomy | Stealth + space |
| L3Harris | Crewed-uncrewed teaming, BANSHEE datalinks | Communications + sensors |
| Raytheon/RTX | Missile defense AI, counter-drone | Missiles + radar |
| BAE Systems | Electronic warfare AI | UK/EU defense |
Insurgents (Defense Tech)
| Company | Focus | Valuation/Stage |
|---|---|---|
| Anduril | Lattice AI platform, autonomous systems | $30.5B (June 2025), ~$1B revenue |
| Shield AI | Hivemind autonomous pilot, F-16s | $5.3B (March 2025) |
| Palantir | Project Maven ($1.3B), Army ($10B) | Public ($50B+ market cap) |
| Skydio | Autonomous drones (reconnaissance) | ~$2.2B (2023) |
Drone Manufacturers
| Company | Type | Notable |
|---|---|---|
| Baykar (Turkey) | Bayraktar TB2 | Changed drone warfare perception |
| Ukraine (various) | FPV, reconnaissance | 4.5M UAVs planned for 2025 |
| General Atomics | Reaper, Predator | Legacy platform, adapting |
Civilian Security Players
Traditional Security Services
| Company | Revenue | Focus | AI Adoption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Securitas AB | $15.8B | Guard services, 32% tech revenue | Accelerating |
| Allied Universal | Market leader | 800,000 employees globally | Acquiring |
| ADT | $5.1B | Home monitoring, 6M+ customers | Smart home AI |
| Prosegur | ~$4.5B | Cash logistics, security | Moderate |
Security Tech (AI-Native)
| Company | Focus | Notable |
|---|---|---|
| Flock Safety | LPR, community surveillance, drones | $7.5B valuation, $300M+ ARR, 20B scans/mo |
| Verkada | AI camera platform | $5.8B valuation, $1B+ bookings |
| Ambient.ai | Behavioral AI (no facial rec) | $146M raised, privacy-first |
| Axon | Taser + body cameras + Fusus RTCC | ~$2.7B revenue, 250+ cities |
| Motorola Solutions | Radio + video + command center | $11.7B revenue, $70B market cap |
Big Tech in Security
| Company | Product | Scale |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | Ring doorbell cameras | Tens of millions of cameras |
| Nest cameras, home security | Integrated with Pixel/Android | |
| Apple | HomeKit security devices | Ecosystem integration |
Facial Recognition
| Company | Market Position | Controversy |
|---|---|---|
| Clearview AI | Law enforcement dominant, $9.2M ICE contract | Privacy lawsuits, 595% revenue growth |
| NEC | Government/enterprise | Long-established |
| Cognitec | Border control, forensics | European markets |
Justice/Rehabilitation Players
Prison Industry (Incumbents)
| Company | Focus | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| CoreCivic | Private prisons | ~$1.9B |
| GEO Group | Private prisons + BI Inc (monitoring) | ~$2.4B |
| Securus/ViaPath | Prison communications (80% market) | ~$700M |
Electronic Monitoring
| Company | Focus | Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| BI Incorporated | GPS monitoring (GEO subsidiary) | Major US player |
| SuperCom | Multi-technology monitoring | 16,000 active monitors (Europe) |
| SCRAM Systems | Alcohol + location monitoring | Leading US |
| Attenti (Allied) | Remote tracking technologies | Israel-based |
Market size: $2.18B in 2025, growing to $3.19B by 2030. Top 5 vendors control ~60%.
Justice Reform Tech
| Company/Org | Focus | Stage |
|---|---|---|
| ClearPath Corrections | Echo AI therapy for inmates | 30+ facilities, 12 states |
| Recidiviz | Data platform for criminal justice | Nonprofit, multiple states |
| Core Pathway (MHS) | AI-powered correctional education | Growing |
| Ameelio | Free prison communication | Nonprofit |
Human/AI Split
| Function | Current AI % | 2028 AI % | Human Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threat Detection | 40% | 80% | Novel threat recognition |
| Video Monitoring | 30% | 75% | Context judgment |
| Risk Assessment | 25% | 50% | Ethical oversight |
| Drone Operations | 30% | 60% | Rules of engagement |
| Rehabilitation | 10% | 35% | Human connection |
| Policy/Governance | 5% | 10% | Democratic accountability |
The pattern: Detection and monitoring go to AI. Ethics, governance, and human connection stay human.
Ecosystem Map
+------------------+
| GOVERNMENT |
| (Policy, Budget, |
| Regulation) |
+--------+---------+
|
+--------------------+--------------------+
| | |
v v v
+---------------+ +-----------------+ +---------------+
| DEFENSE PRIMES| | SECURITY TECH | | JUSTICE SYSTEM|
| (Lockheed, |<->| (Flock, Verkada,|<->| (Courts, |
| Anduril) | | Ring, Axon) | | Corrections) |
+-------+-------+ +--------+--------+ +-------+-------+
| | |
| | |
v v v
+---------------+ +-----------------+ +---------------+
| MILITARY | | COMMUNITIES | | MONITORED |
| PERSONNEL | | (Citizens, | | INDIVIDUALS |
| | | Neighborhoods)| | |
+---------------+ +-----------------+ +---------------+
Competitive Dynamics
Porter's Five Forces (Security Tech)
| Force | Traditional | AI Era | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supplier Power | High (government) | Medium | Tech reduces dependence |
| Buyer Power | Low (fear-driven) | Medium | More options, comparison |
| Substitutes | Low | Growing | DIY security, community |
| New Entrants | Low (regulation) | High (tech side) | AI startups entering fast |
| Rivalry | Stable | Intense | AI capabilities diverging |
Context
- Protocols -- What these players execute
- Platform -- Technology they use
- Robotics Players -- Overlapping ecosystem
- Work Charts -- Human/AI split methodology