Space Performance
How do you know if a space company is winning?
Space economics are unique — high capex, long lead times, binary launch outcomes. The metrics that matter differ from pure software businesses.
Opportunity Score
Aggregate: 6.5 / 10 | Classification: Monitor Closely
| Dimension | Score | Key Evidence | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 8.0 | $1.1T space economy by 2040, 9% CAGR | 20% |
| Technology Disruption | 7.0 | Launch costs 10x lower than decade ago, reusability proven | 20% |
| VVFL Alignment | 6.0 | Loop works conceptually, tokenization nascent | 25% |
| Competitive Position | 5.5 | SpaceX dominance, high barriers | 20% |
| Timing Risk | 6.0 | Regulation uncertain, debris growing | 15% |
Calculation: (8.0 × 0.20) + (7.0 × 0.20) + (6.0 × 0.25) + (5.5 × 0.20) + (6.0 × 0.15) = 6.5
Verdict: Strong long-term fundamentals, but centralized players dominate. Watch for tokenized constellation plays and ground station DePIN opportunities.
The KPI Hierarchy
Tier 1: Launch Economics (The Chokepoint)
| KPI | What It Measures | Best-in-Class | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost per kg to orbit | Launch efficiency | ~$2,700 (Falcon 9) | SpaceX |
| Gross margin per launch | Unit economics | ~30-40% | Industry estimates |
| Launch cadence | Throughput | 100+ launches/year | SpaceX (2024) |
| Mission success rate | Reliability | 98%+ | Rocket Lab, SpaceX |
| Reuse rate | Capital efficiency | 20+ flights/booster | Falcon 9 Block 5 |
| Turnaround time | Operational tempo | ~30 days | SpaceX target |
The key ratio: Revenue per launch ÷ Cost per launch = Launch margin
Tier 2: Constellation Operations
| KPI | What It Measures | Benchmark | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active satellites | Fleet size | 6,000+ (Starlink) | Network effects kick in at ~1,000 |
| Satellite lifetime | Asset longevity | 5-7 years (LEO) | Shorter than GEO (15+ years) |
| Uptime/availability | Service reliability | 99.5%+ | Enterprise requirement |
| Latency | User experience | 20-50ms (LEO) | Competitive with fiber |
| Throughput per sat | Capacity utilization | 20+ Gbps | Gen2 Starlink targets 80 Gbps |
| Coverage hours | Geographic reach | 24/7 global | Requires 1,000+ LEO sats |
Tier 3: Revenue Metrics
| KPI | What It Measures | Leaders | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARR/MRR | Recurring revenue | Starlink ~$6B+ ARR | Consumer + enterprise |
| ARPU | Revenue per user | $100-500/month | Varies by segment |
| CAC | Customer acquisition | Terminal subsidy heavy | ~$600/terminal at cost |
| Backlog | Future revenue | Rocket Lab ~$1B+ | Programs > spot launches |
| Backlog coverage | Visibility | 2-3 years | Indicates demand stability |
Tier 4: Rocket Lab Specific KPIs
From the Rocket Lab Data Architecture:
| System | Primary KPI | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Launch Economics | Gross margin per launch | Unit economics at chokepoint |
| Launch Reliability | Mission success rate (rolling 20) | Trust = future contracts |
| Spacecraft Platforms | On-time delivery rate | Program margin depends on schedule |
| Components | Manufacturing yield % | Determines scalability |
| Software/Ops | ARR and gross margin | Recurring revenue compounds |
| Go-to-market | Backlog coverage (years) | Visibility = investability |
| Capital Allocation | ROIC per major program | Neutron CapEx payback |
Traditional vs Protocol KPIs
| Traditional KPI | How Measured | Protocol KPI | Why Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch price | Per-contract negotiation | On-chain launch market | Price discovery |
| Satellite uptime | Self-reported | Verified telemetry | Trust-minimized |
| Data quality | Proprietary validation | Cryptographic attestation | Provenance |
| Spectrum usage | Regulatory filing | Real-time on-chain | Efficiency |
| Ground station access | Enterprise contracts | Per-pass pricing | Permissionless |
Timing Assessment
| Factor | Status | Maturity | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch cost reduction | ✅ 10x achieved | Growth | Accelerator |
| Reusability | ✅ Proven (F9, Electron partial) | Adoption | Accelerator |
| Mega-constellation deployment | 🟡 Starlink dominant | Growth | Mixed |
| Tokenization | 🔴 Nascent | Innovation | Wait |
| Ground station DePIN | 🔴 Not yet | Innovation | Entry point |
| Regulatory clarity | 🟡 Evolving | Uncertain | Blocker |
S-curve position: Late Adoption / Early Growth for launch. Innovation phase for DePIN/tokenization.
Benchmark Companies
| Company | Focus | Key Metrics (2024-25) |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | Vertical leader | 100+ launches, 6,000+ Starlink sats, $6B+ ARR |
| Rocket Lab | Small launch + systems | 50+ launches, $436M revenue, $1B+ backlog |
| Planet Labs | Earth observation | 200+ satellites, ~$250M revenue |
| Maxar | GEO imagery | Acquired by Advent (~$6B) |
| Amazon Kuiper | Broadband | First launches 2024, $10B+ committed |
The Insight
"In space, the chokepoint KPI is launch economics. Everything else — constellation size, data throughput, revenue — flows downstream from cost per kg to orbit."
Context
- Space Industry — Parent analysis
- Rocket Lab Data Architecture — Company-specific model
- DePIN Asset Analysis — Prediction framework
- Performance — How to think about metrics
The Meta Question
"Are we measuring what matters — or what's easy to measure?"