Forecasting

Qualify and quantify what the future looks like.

Forecasts need to be established by methodically following standardized processes.

1. Triage: Stop losses first. Focus on questions where your hard work will have an immediate pay off before seeking opportunities.
2. Break Problems Down: Identity the true nature of the problem.
3. Balance Perspectives: Take inside and outside views, reality leaves a lot to the imagination.
4. Update your Beliefs: Strong opinions loosely held.
5. Connect the Dots: Everything is connected, look for the meta of the matter.
6. Reduce Uncertainty: Establish what you hold to be true.
7. Balance Risk: Prudence and Decisiveness
8. Document Decisions: Document how and why decisions are made to improve future process.
9. Grow a Team: Spread the load, create more valuable insights.

Practice

Train yourself to see into the future.

Mantra

Standards drive predictability

Links

• Good Judgment Project
• The Basics of Game Theory
• Are you a super-forecaster
• Ten Commandments for Super-forecasters