Prediction Game
Can you prove a settlement stack works by shipping one game that uses every piece?
A rugby stadium at night, overlaid with a transparent Sui PTB diagram showing predict → stake → settle → payout flowing as one atomic arrow. Below: a phone showing a match card with "Home / Draw / Away" buttons. No wallet popup. No gas estimation. Just pick and confirm.
Problem
Situation: On-chain prediction markets require 4-5 separate transactions on EVM — wallet install, token approval, prediction, oracle settlement, user claim. Each step loses users. Each transaction costs gas. Each is a failure point.
Intention: A prediction game where the entire lifecycle — browse, predict, settle, pay — happens in 1-2 atomic transactions with zero wallet setup and zero gas decisions.
Obstacle: No sports data oracle exists on Sui. zkLogin and sponsored transactions haven't been integrated into a real product. The settlement PTB composition pattern is unproven at the application level.
Hardest Thing: The oracle. Move contracts and frontend are engineering problems with known solutions. A reliable sports data feed that submits results on-chain with attestation — and handles conflicts, delays, and edge cases — is the novel dependency.
Pitch and Prompt
- Prompt Deck — 5 slides: atomic settlement, gasless UX, compiler safety, build order, community dogfood
- Spec — Intent + Story + Build + Screen Contracts
- Pictures — Outcome map, value stream, dependency map
- Wiring Map — Engineering execution coordinates
Scorecard
| Dimension | Score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Pain | 4 | 4-5 EVM txs, wallet install, gas management — real friction measured in value stream map |
| Demand | 3 | Rugby niche but passionate. Polymarket proves prediction market demand. Zero Sui-native prediction product. |
| Edge | 5 | PTB atomic settlement + hot potato oracle + Move type safety. None available on EVM. |
| Trend | 5 | Onchain gaming growing. Gasless UX becoming standard. Google chose Sui for agent commerce. |
| Conversion | 3 | Testnet dogfood with rugby community. No revenue model yet. |
| Composite | 900 | 4 × 3 × 5 × 5 × 3 |
Kill signal: Zero predictions on testnet after 30 days of deployment, OR PTB settlement requires more than one transaction.
Frozen Scope
5 feature IDs from Onchain JTBD:
| ID | Capability | Job in This PRD |
|---|---|---|
| WCAP-007 | Gas abstraction | Sponsored transactions — user never pays gas |
| WCAP-008 | Seedless onboarding (zkLogin) | No wallet install, no seed phrase |
| WCAP-011 | NFT management | Dynamic prediction receipts, leaderboard |
| WCAP-019 | Atomic multi-operation settlement (PTB) | Predict + stake + settle + payout in one tx |
| WCAP-020 | Oracle data integration | Sports data on-chain with attestation |
Context
- Onchain JTBD — The capability register this PRD advances
- Sui Business Development — Strategic context and 5Ps analysis
- Sui Patterns — Hot potato, Dynamic Display, clock guard
- Sui Standards — Display, sponsored txs, kiosk
- Sui Protocols — Oracle + Settlement layers
- Smart Contracts — The piping technology
Questions
What would this game need to prove before you'd trust the same settlement patterns for real money?
- If the oracle is the hardest thing, why are we building contracts first — is that courage or avoidance?
- The hot potato pattern prevents double-settlement at compile time — but what class of bugs does it NOT prevent?
- If rugby fans complete 50 predictions on testnet, does that prove the UX works, or just that they're tolerant?