Outcome Map
Desired outcome: Rugby fans complete a prediction in under 30 seconds, settled atomically on Sui testnet.
Success Measures
Binary. No interpretation required.
| # | Measure | Pass Condition | Fail Condition |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | First prediction settled | At least one prediction settled atomically on Sui testnet | Zero settled predictions after 14 days of deployment |
| 2 | Walletless onboarding | User completes prediction without installing a wallet extension | Any step requires wallet extension install |
| 3 | Single-PTB settlement | Oracle result + winner calculation + payout execute in one PTB | Settlement requires more than one transaction |
| 4 | Dogfood volume | 50+ predictions from real users in first 30 days | Fewer than 50 predictions after 30 days |
Outcome Chain
User sees fixture → picks outcome → stakes (zkLogin, sponsored tx)
→ Oracle reports result → settle_fixture() in single PTB
→ Winners receive payout → Receipt NFT updates to won/lost/claimed
Each step is a potential failure point. The outcome map tests the chain end-to-end.
Kill Signal
Zero predictions on testnet after 30 days of deployment, OR PTB settlement requires more than one transaction. Either condition means the thesis — that Sui's PTBs make atomic settlement trivial — is wrong for this use case.
Questions
What outcome would prove the thesis wrong in a way we'd actually accept — or would we explain it away?
- Is 50 predictions enough to prove anything, or just enough to feel good?
- If settlement works but onboarding fails, do we have a product or a demo?