Value Stories
How atomic settlement creates value. Each story is an intent flow: a scenario triggers an intention, actions produce artifacts, outcomes prove value.
Does the UX eliminate friction?
Browse without a wallet. Predict without gas. The user's job is to pick a winner — nothing else.
Checking upcoming rugby matches across multiple betting sites. Each site takes ~60s to load and compare. Most require wallet connection just to browse.
Browse all upcoming fixtures with pool totals — no wallet, no sign-up, no crypto prerequisite.
Browse 5+ matches in <3s vs checking multiple betting sites at ~60s per match. No wallet connection required.
Page requires wallet connection to view fixtures. Fixtures with status != upcoming appear in the list. Pool totals show stale data (>30s old).
Ready to back a prediction. EVM flow requires wallet install, token approval, gas estimation — 4-5 transactions over ~3 min. Most users drop off at wallet install.
Complete a prediction with zero wallet setup and zero gas decisions in one tap.
Predict in <30s with 0 gas decisions vs EVM flow requiring wallet install + 2 gas approvals at ~3 min total.
User prompted to install wallet extension. PTB fails silently — UI shows success but no on-chain object. Stake deducted but Prediction not created. User charged gas.
Does atomic settlement work?
One PTB settles the entire fixture. Hot potato prevents the bugs. The compiler is the auditor.
Match finished. 10+ predictions across three outcome pools awaiting settlement. On EVM, each user must claim individually — 15-60s per claim transaction.
Settle the entire fixture — result, payouts, status updates — in a single atomic PTB.
Settle entire fixture in <1s in 1 PTB vs EVM requiring per-user claim transactions at ~15-60s each.
Settlement requires >1 transaction. OracleResult persists after settlement (hot potato violated). Any Prediction remains pending after settlement. Losers receive payout. Winners receive less than proportional share.
Oracle agent posts a conflicting result for an already-settled fixture, or goes offline during the settlement window. Historical oracle bugs have caused fund loss.
Prevent double-settlement at the contract level and handle oracle failure with admin override.
Zero double-settlements and zero stuck fixtures vs historical oracle bugs causing fund loss.
Double settlement succeeds — fixture pays out twice. Fixture stuck in live forever with no admin override. Oracle posts result before kickoff_epoch (clock guard violated).
Does the track record compound?
Dynamic receipts evolve with results. History is on-chain and owned by the user.
3+ predictions settled. No on-chain history on existing platforms — you can't prove your track record or see win/loss patterns.
See full prediction history with results, payouts, and receipt NFT proof.
Track record visible in <5s vs no on-chain history on existing platforms.
Page shows predictions from other users. Won predictions show $0 payout. Lost predictions show a payout. Pending mixed with settled without clear status.
Zero predictions on testnet after 30 days, OR PTB settlement requires more than one transaction. Either means the thesis is wrong for this use case.
Who this is for
| Who | Job | Switching trigger |
|---|---|---|
| Rugby fan | Back convictions on match outcomes | Zero-friction entry (no wallet, no gas) |
| Crypto native | Prove prediction skill with on-chain record | Sui-native UX, atomic settlement, Dynamic NFT receipts |
| Builder | Validate Sui settlement patterns for other products | Working reference implementation |
Questions
If the prediction game proves the settlement stack works, what's the next product that inherits the patterns — and which patterns don't transfer?
- Is rugby the right sport for dogfood, or does the niche community limit what we learn about onboarding?
- The hot potato oracle pattern prevents double-settlement — but what happens when the oracle is wrong, not malicious?
- If zkLogin eliminates seed phrases, what new trust assumption replaces them — and is it actually better?