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The loop closes here. Measurement without action is theatre.
Kill criteria and the scorecard are defined in the business plan. This page tracks five KPIs that drive decisions — not activities that feel productive.
Scorecard Summary
| Dimension | Score | Evidence | Conviction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pain | 4/5 | Service businesses universally report high CAC | HIGH |
| Demand | 3/5 | Market exists, zero customers yet | LOW |
| Edge | 4/5 | Fishing metaphor + ecosystem thinking are differentiated | MEDIUM |
| Trend | 4/5 | AI commoditized content, strategy is scarce | HIGH |
| Conversion | 2/5 | Zero conversion data | NONE |
| Composite | 384 | Above 100 threshold | — |
Quadrant: INVEST — High priority + low preparedness. Invest to close the preparedness gap before scaling.
Five KPIs
MRR is not on this list. MRR is an outcome of these five working together. Track MRR for accounting. Track these five for decisions.
| # | KPI | What it measures | Why this one | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inbound Qualified Conversations / month | People who found you and match ICP | North star. If berley works, fish come. Zero after 90 days = positioning is wrong, not execution. | >3/month by Month 4 |
| 2 | Audit-to-Retainer Conversion Rate | % of audits that convert to Trail Builder | Proves the framework creates dependency in 10 days. IKEA effect should drive this — they co-created it, they value it. | >30% |
| 3 | Delivery Hours Per Client Per Month | Actual hours vs 15hr estimate | The kill metric. At 60% gross margin, 2x hours = 20% margin = below minimum wage. Determines whether Stage 1 is a business or an expensive hobby. | <15 hrs/client/mo |
| 4 | Client Inbound Lift | Change in client's inbound qualified leads (before/after) | The proof metric. Are your clients' fish actually showing up? Without this, you sell a framework with no evidence. With this, every engagement becomes a case study. | >2x within 90 days |
| 5 | Referral Rate | % of clients who refer a paying client within 6 months | The fish-ball metric. If referral rate is zero, you have a service — not an ecosystem. The difference between Stage 1 staying forever and reaching Stage 2. | >30% |
Why not these
| Metric | Why it's excluded |
|---|---|
| Content output (pieces/month) | Activity, not outcome. KPI #1 tells you if content works. 20 pieces and zero conversations means more pieces won't help. |
| CAC | Meaningless at Stage 1 with zero spend. KPI #5 (referral rate) is the leading indicator of where CAC lands. |
| MRR | Outcome, not driver. If the five KPIs are green, MRR follows. If MRR is green but KPIs are red, it won't last. |
| Website traffic | Vanity. 10,000 visitors and zero qualified conversations is worse than 100 visitors and 3 conversations. |
Off Course — Decision-Action Process
Bad results don't mean do more. They mean ask better questions. Every red signal is data about which assumption was wrong.
| KPI | Red signal | What it indicates | Decision-action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inbound = 0 | 90 days of content, zero qualified conversations | Positioning isn't resonating OR wrong channel | Don't produce more content. Run 5 SPIN calls with target ICP. Ask: "What would you search for when this pain hits?" If their language differs from your berley, rewrite. If the pain isn't there, thesis is wrong. Trigger kill criteria #1. |
| Conversion < 20% | 3+ audits completed, nobody converts | Audit impresses but doesn't create need | Giving too much away (reciprocity without scarcity) OR not enough co-creation (IKEA effect missing). Reduce audit deliverable, increase co-creation in the session. If still <20% after 3 more, raise audit price — cheap signals low value. |
| Delivery > 22 hrs | First 3 clients averaging 150%+ of estimate | Scope creep or framework isn't templated | Don't take client #4. Stop. Document which hours are repeatable vs custom. If >50% custom, the "framework" is consulting — Row 1 of the leverage stack, not Row 2. Templatize ruthlessly or reprice at $4,000/mo. Trigger kill criteria #3. |
| Client lift = 0 | 3 months of service, zero measurable improvement | Framework doesn't produce results | The hardest truth. Check measurement first (are they tracking?). Check client fit (were they ICP?). If both right and lift is still zero, the framework doesn't work. Kill or pivot. |
| Referral = 0 | 6 months, 3+ clients, zero referrals | Satisfied but not compelled to share | Results are "fine" not "remarkable." Fish-ball won't form from "fine." Pick the client with best results, over-deliver for 30 days, document before/after obsessively, then ASK for one introduction. If they hesitate, ask why. That answer is more valuable than any metric. |
On Course — Amplification Process
Don't celebrate. Capture. The window between "this is working" and "too busy to document why" is short. When something works, templatize it before moving on.
| KPI | Green signal | What it indicates | Decision-action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inbound > 3/month | Fish are arriving from content | Positioning works | Don't change the berley. Document exactly which content produced which conversations. Double down on the format that works, kill formats that don't. Resist broadening — narrower is better. Start a waitlist if capacity is full. Scarcity is berley. |
| Conversion > 40% | Audits create genuine dependency | Framework lands | Raise audit price by $500. Not for revenue — to test price elasticity and signal quality. If conversion stays >40% at $2,000, you were underpriced. Start documenting the audit process for Stage 2 productization. |
| Delivery < 12 hrs | Templates working, framework efficient | Capacity surplus | Don't fill capacity with more clients yet. Use spare hours to build Stage 2 templates. Record one full audit delivery as a training video. This is how you hire your first junior strategist — they watch, they learn, they deliver. |
| Client lift > 2x | Framework produces measurable results | Case study ready | Write the before/after story — concrete numbers, timeline, what surprised the client. Publish as berley. This single piece will outperform everything else. Ask client to co-present at one event. IKEA + social proof + reciprocity stacked. |
| Referral > 30% | Fish-ball forming | Ecosystem thesis proven | Stop all outbound immediately — no longer needed, signals the wrong thing. Shift 100% to inbound + referral. Create referral program (not cash — give the referrer a free strategy session refresh). Start planning Stage 2: if clients send you clients, the framework is ready to templatize. |
Measurement Log
| Date | KPI | Planned | Actual | Gap | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Phase completion | Biz dev package | Done | None | Begin Q1 execution |
| — | Inbound conversations | >3/mo by Month 4 | — | — | — |
| — | Conversion rate | >30% | — | — | — |
| — | Delivery hours | <15 hrs/client | — | — | — |
| — | Client inbound lift | >2x in 90 days | — | — | — |
| — | Referral rate | >30% in 6 months | — | — | — |
Loop-Back Trigger
| Signal | Loop back to | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Metaphor confuses prospects | PITCH | Rework Tight Five answers without fishing language |
| Clients want execution, not strategy | MODEL | Shift from Productized Service toward Agency |
| Referrals outperform all channels | STRATEGY | Double down on Stage 2 GTM, skip Stage 3 |
| Delivery takes 2x estimated hours | FINANCE | Reprice or reduce scope per tier |
| AI tools match our strategy output | VALIDATE | Re-run outsider lens. Consider pivoting to AI-native tooling |
| 90-day proof plan fails at any gate | KILL | Follow kill process in business plan |
Questions
Which of the five KPIs will produce its first real number — and what decision does that number force?
- If inbound conversations are strong but conversion is weak, does that validate the positioning or invalidate the product?
- At what point does a green referral rate signal that Stage 2 investment is safe — one quarter or two?
- If delivery hours run low, is the right move to take more clients or invest in templates — and who decides?