What to measure. Traditional metrics vs agency-era metrics.
Capability and willpower to focus attention on solving a problem to produce an intended outcome?
| Category | What It Measures | Traditional | Agency-Era |
|---|
| Learning | Knowledge acquisition | Test scores, grades | Pattern skill assessments |
| Output | Value created | Graduation rate | Ship rate, portfolio depth |
| Network | Connections formed | Class size | Collaboration density, reach |
| Economic | Return on education | Salary premium | Time to value creation |
Learning Metrics
Traditional
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|
| GPA | 3.0+ considered good | Compliance with curriculum |
| Test scores | Percentile rankings | Recall under pressure |
| Course completion | 85%+ expected | Persistence |
| Graduation rate | 60% (US 4-year) | System throughput |
Agency-Era
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|
| Pattern recognition | Prediction accuracy | Ability to read situations |
| Ship rate | Projects/quarter | Bias toward action |
| Agency score | Self-assessment + peer | Identity as creator |
| Feedback loop speed | Days to iteration | Learning velocity |
| Traditional | Agency-Era | Shift |
|---|
| Test scores | Prediction accuracy | From recall to anticipation |
| GPA | Ship rate | From compliance to creation |
| Graduation | First revenue/impact | From time-based to value-based |
| Attendance | Engagement depth | From presence to participation |
Output Metrics
Traditional
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|
| Degree completion | 4-6 years | Time invested |
| Certification | Pass/fail | Minimum competency |
| Honors | Top 10% | Relative performance |
| Publications | For academics | Research contribution |
Agency-Era
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|
| Projects shipped | Growing count | Action orientation |
| Portfolio depth | Domain coverage | Range of capability |
| Impact metrics | Users/revenue/use | Real-world value |
| Collaboration count | Co-creators | Network building |
The Formula: Output Score = (Projects Shipped) × (Avg Impact) × (Collaboration Factor)
Network Metrics
Traditional education measures inputs (class size). Agency-era measures outputs (network value created).
| Metric | What It Measures | Target |
|---|
| Active collaborators | People you've built with | Growing |
| Network reach | Connections of connections | Expanding |
| Reciprocity ratio | Give/receive balance | Balanced to positive |
| Mastermind participation | Active problem-solving groups | At least one active |
| Coach relationships | People who've invested in you | 2-3 at any time |
Network Quality Indicators
| Signal | Strong Network | Weak Network |
|---|
| Project invitations | Getting asked to join | Always initiating |
| Reference requests | Others cite your work | Credentials-only references |
| Opportunity flow | Deals/roles come to you | Must search actively |
| Knowledge sharing | Regular exchange | One-way consumption |
Economic Metrics
Traditional (Credential ROI)
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|
| Salary premium | 80% vs non-degree | Market value of credential |
| Time to ROI | 10-15 years | Payback period |
| Debt load | $30K median (US) | Investment required |
| Employment rate | 85%+ employed in field | Credential utility |
Agency-Era (Agency ROI)
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|
| Time to first value | Months, not years | Speed of economic contribution |
| Value creation rate | Monthly growth | Compounding capability |
| Optionality | Opportunities/mo | Range of paths available |
| Ownership stake | Equity positions | Upside capture |
| Traditional | Agency-Era | Shift |
|---|
| Salary premium | Value creation rate | From extracting to creating |
| Time to ROI | Time to first ship | From delayed to immediate |
| Employment rate | Optionality score | From single path to many |
| Debt load | Investment (skin in game) | From extraction to alignment |
Opportunity Assessment
Scoring Dimensions
| Dimension | Weight | Education Score | Evidence |
|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 20% | 7.5 | $7.3T TAM, structural inefficiency |
| Technology Disruption | 20% | 8.0 | AI tutors outperform in trials |
| VVFL Alignment | 25% | 7.5 | Loop works—shipping creates more |
| Competitive Position | 20% | 7.0 | First-mover in agency curriculum wins |
| Timing Risk | 15% | 6.0 | Institutional resistance |
Aggregate: 7.2/10 — Strong Position
Opportunity Matrix
| Opportunity | Score | Timing | Key Risk |
|---|
| AI tutoring platforms | 8.0 | Now | Content commoditization |
| Portfolio verification | 7.5 | Now | Adoption, standards |
| Coach matching | 7.0 | 1-2 years | Supply of quality coaches |
| Learn-to-earn | 6.5 | 2-3 years | Token sustainability |
| Agency accelerator | 8.5 | Now | Execution, credibility |
Watch Signals
| Signal | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|
| Employer hiring shift | Portfolio > degree | Degree requirement holds |
| Tuition trends | Decline begins | Continues rising |
| AI tutor adoption | Mainstream use | Resistance persists |
| Credential verification | On-chain adoption | Traditional dominates |
| Agency programs | Proliferation | No traction |
Prediction Skill Metrics
Prediction ability is fundamental—a core agency skill that develops through practice.
| Metric | How Measured | Target |
|---|
| Calibration | Predicted % vs actual % | Close to 1:1 |
| Brier score | Accuracy of probability forecasts | Lower is better |
| Resolution | Discrimination between outcomes | Higher is better |
| Trend identification | Early recognition rate | Before consensus |
Development path:
- Track predictions formally (see Prediction Database)
- Review outcomes systematically (see Prediction Evaluation)
- Improve probability assignment (see Prediction Probability)
- Build forecasting intuition (see Prediction Forecasting)
| Principle | What to Measure |
|---|
| Agency compounds | Pattern skill scores, agency trajectory |
| Shipped work proves | Ship rate, portfolio depth, impact metrics |
| Coaching unlocks | Coach relationships, belief shift |
| Networks multiply | Collaboration density, network reach |
| Games train patterns | Prediction accuracy, pattern recognition |
Agency Assessment Framework
Self-assessment + peer validation for agency development:
| Dimension | 1 (Beginning) | 3 (Developing) | 5 (Advanced) |
|---|
| Initiative | Wait for instruction | Act when prompted | Act before asked |
| Resilience | Avoid failure | Recover from failure | Seek productive failure |
| AI Fluency | Fear/avoid AI | Use AI tools | AI extends capability |
| Building | Consume only | Modify existing | Create from scratch |
| Prediction | React to events | Anticipate trends | Shape outcomes |
Target: Average 4+ across dimensions for agency readiness.
Context