Solar Performance
What to measure. Traditional metrics vs protocol-era metrics.
Performance Categories
| Category | What It Measures | Traditional | Protocol-Era |
|---|---|---|---|
| System | Generation efficiency | Nameplate vs actual | On-chain verified yield |
| Financial | Return on investment | IRR, payback period | Token yields, LCOE |
| Operational | Efficiency | O&M costs | Protocol automation % |
| Community | Flourishing | N/A | Operator distribution, GCC issuance |
System Metrics
Yield Performance
| Metric | Traditional | Protocol | Why Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual vs Predicted | Engineering models | IoT + satellite verification | Real-time accuracy |
| Performance Ratio | Annual calculation | Continuous monitoring | Faster diagnosis |
| Specific Yield | Estimated | Verified on-chain | Trustless |
Quality
| Metric | Target | Diagnosis If Below |
|---|---|---|
| Actual vs Predicted Yield | ±5% | Design error or equipment issue |
| Performance Ratio | >80% | Shading, soiling, or degradation |
| System Availability | >99% | O&M or inverter problems |
| Specific Yield | 1,200-2,000 kWh/kWp | Location or orientation issue |
Financial Metrics
Traditional Solar
| Metric | Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|---|---|
| LCOE | $0.02-0.15/kWh | Cost competitiveness |
| IRR | 8-15% | Investment return |
| Payback Period | 5-10 years | Time to break even |
| Capex/kW | $800-2,500 | Installation efficiency |
DePIN Protocol
| Metric | Glow Benchmark | What It Shows |
|---|---|---|
| Protocol Revenue | $25M ARR | Sustainability |
| Growth Rate | 80% MoM (beta) | Traction |
| Capital Multiplier | 20x recursive | Capital efficiency |
| Network Size | 70 farms | Scale |
| Claim Legitimacy | >85% target | Trust |
| CO2 Avoided | 300K tonnes lifetime | Impact |
Transformation
| Traditional | Protocol-Era | Shift |
|---|---|---|
| IRR | Token yield + GCC value | Multiple value streams |
| Capex/kW | Protocol subsidy leverage | Community financing |
| Payback period | Token-accelerated returns | Faster economics |
| O&M margin | Protocol automation | Lower operational burden |
Operational Metrics
| Metric | Traditional | Protocol | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verification cost | 5-10% of revenue | Near-zero | 90%+ reduction |
| Carbon credit fees | 30%+ | <5% (GCC) | 80%+ reduction |
| Settlement time | Monthly/quarterly | Instant | 99%+ faster |
| Data transparency | Periodic reports | Real-time on-chain | Full visibility |
Community Metrics (Flourishing)
New metrics for community-owned solar networks:
| Metric | What It Measures | Target |
|---|---|---|
| Farm operator count | Participation breadth | Growing |
| Geographic distribution | Coverage equity | Multiple countries |
| Token holder concentration | Ownership equity | <0.5 Gini coefficient |
| Additionality rate | New vs existing capacity | 100% new construction |
| Local employment | Community benefit | Growing |
Opportunity Assessment
Scoring Dimensions
| Dimension | Weight | Solar Score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 20% | 8.0 | $300B+ market, 20%+ CAGR |
| Technology Disruption | 20% | 7.5 | Late adoption, Glow model proven |
| VVFL Alignment | 25% | 7.0 | Loop works, AI optimization gap |
| Competitive Position | 20% | 6.5 | First-mover advantage |
| Timing Risk | 15% | 6.5 | IRA tailwinds, interconnection backlogs |
Aggregate: 7.1/10 — Monitor Closely
Opportunity Matrix
| Opportunity | Score | Timing | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| DePIN solar farms | 7.5 | Now | Interconnection delays |
| Geographic arbitrage | 8.0 | Now | Regulatory variance |
| Tokenized carbon credits | 7.0 | Now | Market acceptance |
| AI dispatch optimization | 7.5 | 1-2 years | No proven player |
| Virtual power plants | 6.5 | 2-3 years | Grid integration |
Watch Signals
| Signal | Bullish | Bearish |
|---|---|---|
| Glow network growth | >100 farms | Stagnates |
| GCC adoption | Major buyers | Limited demand |
| IRA policy | Extended | Reversed |
| Interconnection reform | Streamlined | Status quo |
| AI optimization | Breakout player | No traction |
Principles → Performance Mapping
| Principle | What to Measure |
|---|---|
| Sun angle determines yield | Specific yield, capacity factor |
| Degradation is inevitable | Year-over-year decline rate |
| Inverter efficiency caps output | Performance ratio, clipping |
| Grid connection is bottleneck | Queue time, curtailment rate |
| LCOE is the honest metric | Levelized cost across portfolio |
| Verification creates value | Claim legitimacy, GCC issuance |
Context
- Principles — What truths guide measurement
- Players — Who's measured
- Energy KPIs — Broader energy metrics
- Opportunity Scoring — Cross-industry methodology