Space Principles
What truths can't be disrupted away?
Space infrastructure operates under constraints that technology can optimize but never eliminate. These principles determine what's possible, what's hard, and what's impossible.
The Six Invariants
| Principle | What It Means | Why Immutable | Investment Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Physics dominates | Orbital mechanics, light speed, radiation — no shortcuts | Laws of physics | Hardware matters more than in pure software |
| Launch is the chokepoint | Everything starts with mass to orbit | Gravity well + rocket equation | Vertical integration wins |
| Latency = altitude | LEO ~20ms, GEO ~600ms, Deep space = minutes to hours | Speed of light | LEO wins for real-time applications |
| Spectrum is finite | Radio frequencies are regulated and scarce | Electromagnetic interference | Regulatory moats are real |
| Debris compounds | Kessler syndrome risk grows with traffic | Orbital mechanics | Space traffic management becomes critical |
| Data outlasts hardware | Satellites deorbit; the data they generated persists | Entropy | Data ownership is the long game |
The Fundamental Constraint
Launch economics set the floor for everything.
| Launch Cost | Era | What It Enables |
|---|---|---|
| ~$50,000/kg | 2000s (Space Shuttle) | Government-only, one-off missions |
| ~$2,700/kg | 2020s (Falcon 9) | Commercial constellations, NewSpace |
| ~$200/kg | 2030s? (Starship) | Mass deployment, orbital manufacturing |
| ~$20/kg | Future? | Space becomes infrastructure |
Until launch cost drops another order of magnitude, capital efficiency per kg is the core optimization for any space business.
Physics Implications
The Rocket Equation
Δv = Isp × g₀ × ln(m₀/mf)
Where:
- Δv = change in velocity (determines orbit)
- Isp = specific impulse (engine efficiency)
- m₀/mf = mass ratio (fuel to payload)
The tyranny: Exponential fuel requirements for linear velocity gains. This is why launch is hard and will always be hard — you can optimize, but not escape the equation.
Orbital Mechanics
| Orbit | Altitude | Period | Latency | Use Case |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEO | 200-2,000 km | 90-120 min | ~20ms | Comms, imaging, broadband |
| MEO | 2,000-35,786 km | 2-24 hrs | 40-150ms | Navigation (GPS) |
| GEO | 35,786 km | 24 hrs | ~600ms | Broadcast, weather |
| Lunar | 384,400 km | 27 days | 1.3 sec | Future infrastructure |
The tradeoff: Higher altitude = wider coverage but higher latency. Lower altitude = better latency but more satellites needed for coverage.
Economic Principles
The Unit Economics Hierarchy
1. Cost per kg to orbit (launch)
2. Cost per satellite (manufacturing)
3. Cost per bit/image/service (operations)
4. Revenue per customer (market)
Each layer multiplies down. If launch is expensive, everything downstream costs more.
Network Effects in Constellations
| Satellite Count | Coverage | Network Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | Intermittent | Minimal |
| 10-100 | Regional | Growing |
| 100-1,000 | Global (sparse) | Strong |
| 1,000-10,000 | Global (dense) | Dominant |
| >10,000 | Redundant | Winner-take-most |
Metcalfe's Law applies: More satellites = more connection points = exponentially more value. This is why Starlink at 6,000+ satellites is hard to catch.
Sovereignty Principles
The Space Treaty Framework
| Treaty | Year | Key Provision | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outer Space Treaty | 1967 | No sovereignty claims | Space is "commons" |
| Liability Convention | 1972 | Launch state liable for damage | ITAR export controls |
| Registration Convention | 1976 | Must register objects | Nation-state tracking |
| Moon Agreement | 1984 | Moon resources are "common heritage" | Not widely ratified |
The gap: International law treats space as commons, but commercial activity creates de facto control. The "first to deploy wins" dynamic.
ITAR and Export Controls
US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) mean:
- Space technology is export-controlled
- Non-US citizens face restrictions
- Compliance costs are real
- Rocket Lab navigates this by operating in both NZ and US
The Insight
"Space is an engineering problem with physics constraints — but the economics are set by whoever solves the physics first."
The players who reduce launch cost and achieve reliable reusability capture the entire value chain. Everyone else pays rent.
Context
- Space Industry — Parent analysis
- Principles — How to think about invariants
- DePIN — Physical infrastructure economics
- Robotics Principles — Similar physics constraints
The Meta Question
"Which constraints are fundamental (physics) and which are merely current (economics, regulation)?"