Telecom Industry
The world's connectivity infrastructure is being rebuilt from the edges.
Playbook
| Prompts | Questions | Reflections |
|---|---|---|
| Principles | What guides us? | Connectivity compounds, communities own |
| Performance | Is it working? | Coverage, yields, utilization |
| Protocols | How do we do it? | DePIN deployment, routing, settlement |
| Platform | What tools? | ABCD stack for connectivity |
| Players | Who's involved? | Incumbents, DePIN protocols, operators |
Most Important Question
When anyone can deploy, verify, and earn from connectivity infrastructure, who captures the value — shareholders or communities?
The Transformation Thesis
Telecom is transitioning from extraction to flourishing:
| From | To | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Centralized ownership | Community ownership | DePIN replaces capex with token incentives |
| Shareholder extraction | Operator participation | Those who deploy, own |
| Opaque routing | Optimized routing | AI finds lowest-cost paths |
| Bilateral settlements | Instant settlement | Blockchain replaces clearing |
| Geographic monopoly | Permissionless coverage | Anyone can become an operator |
Opportunity Score
Aggregate: 6.85 / 10 | Classification: Monitor Closely
| Dimension | Score | Key Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 7.5 | $1.98T TAM, DePIN captures IoT/rural first |
| Technology Disruption | 7.0 | Late adoption phase, Helium 300% YoY growth |
| VVFL Alignment | 7.0 | Loop works — AI layer is the gap |
| Competitive Position | 6.5 | First-mover advantage, token sustainability TBD |
| Timing Risk | 6.0 | Regulatory uncertainty, spectrum complexity |
Verdict: Strong fundamentals. Watch for regulatory catalysts and AI routing layer development. NZ/LATAM first-mover opportunity.
First Principles
| Principle | Why Immutable | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Connectivity compounds | Metcalfe's Law (value = n²) | More nodes = exponentially more value |
| Infrastructure is physical | Signals travel through space | Someone must deploy hardware |
| Routing is optimization | Packets seek lowest-cost path | AI beats bilateral deals |
| Trust has costs | Verification requires resources | Cryptographic proofs reduce cost |
| Communities need coverage | People exist where networks reach | Those who deploy should own |
See Principles for the full framework.
The VVFL in Telecom
Hotspots (DePIN) → Coverage Data → Routing AI → Traffic Steering → Token Rewards
↑ ↓
└──────────────── Value funds more hotspots ──────────────────────┘
More hotspots → More coverage → Better routing → Higher yields → More hotspots
Value Chain Disruption
| Stage | Traditional | DePIN | Margin Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spectrum | Licensed (barrier) | Unlicensed/CBRS | Bypassed |
| Infrastructure | Carrier capex (15-20%) | Community hotspots | → Operators |
| Operations | Carrier opex (30-40% EBITDA) | Protocol automation | → Token holders |
| Service | MVNO margin (10-15%) | dApp integration | → Users |
| Revenue | ARPU to shareholders | Data credits to community | → Flourishing |
See Value Chain Analysis for the full breakdown.
Friction → Opportunity Map
| Friction | Layer | Status | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| High capex barriers | DePIN | 🟡 Growing | Community-owned infrastructure |
| Opaque routing | AI | 🔴 Gap | MEV-style optimization |
| Settlement delays | Blockchain | 🟡 Growing | Instant inter-carrier settlement |
| Geographic monopolies | DePIN | 🟡 Growing | Permissionless coverage |
| Data silos | Blockchain | 🔴 Gap | Shared coverage oracles |
| Trust in QoS | Blockchain | 🔴 Gap | Verifiable service proofs |
Highest-Value Gaps
1. Routing Intelligence (AI Layer)
No one optimizes globally. Carriers route based on bilateral deals, not efficiency.
| Component | Gap | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Data | Real-time cost/quality across carriers | Coverage oracles |
| AI | Dynamic routing optimization | MEV-style arbitrage |
| Value | Arbitrage shared with operators | Token distribution |
2. Coverage Verification (Trust Layer)
Self-reported coverage is unverifiable. Proof of Coverage works but gaming persists.
| Component | Gap | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Attestation | Cryptographic service proofs | Quality oracles |
| Reputation | Portable operator quality scores | On-chain history |
Deep Dives
| Section | Deep Dive | What's There |
|---|---|---|
| Principles | First Principles | 5 immutable truths |
| Protocols | Helium | Leading DePIN protocol |
| Protocols | Double Zero | Enterprise connectivity |
| Platform | ABCD Stack | Technology layers |
| Players | Ecosystem | Who does what |
Parallel Disruption
Telecom and banking face the same transformation:
| Dimension | Telecom | Banking |
|---|---|---|
| Incumbent moat | Spectrum + capex | Licenses + capital |
| Extraction | ARPU to shareholders | Fees to shareholders |
| DePIN threat | Community coverage | Community finance |
| Crypto rails | Token incentives | Stablecoins, DeFi |
| AI layer | Routing optimization | Risk optimization |
See Banking Industry — "Will banks follow the path of telcos?"
Context
- DePIN — Physical infrastructure patterns
- DePIN Tokens — Token economics
- Banking Industry — Parallel disruption
- Payments Industry — MVNO + crypto rails
- Real Estate — Another DePIN vertical
Resources
The Meta Question
"When infrastructure can be deployed, verified, and owned by communities — not corporations — what happens to the meaning of 'carrier'?"