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Investing Thesis

What is the best process for developing an investment thesis?

An invest thesis tells a convincing story backed by maths.

Purpose​

The goal of writing a thesis is to judge conviction that an investment will generate compelling returns. Keep your thesis succinct and focused on the most important factors driving your investment decision.

Checklist​

High-level checklist for creating an investment thesis to build a picture of how, where and when value will accrue before committing to a decision strategy for controlling your position.

  • Identify the underlying catalyst or trend driving the investment opportunity
  • Assess how the specific investment is positioned to benefit from the catalyst
  • Consider the biggest risks and potential downsides
  • Determine your conviction level and expected return
  • Write a concise statement (1-2 sentences) summarizing the investment thesis
  • Include key supporting data points and analysis
  • Outline your planned investment timeline and exit strategy
  • Review and refine the thesis as new information becomes available
  • Use the thesis to guide future decisions about the investment
  • Be prepared to abandon the thesis if fundamental assumptions prove incorrect

Details

  • Intentions: Clarity and consistency of direction.
  • Culture: The commitment of the community and their meme game.
  • Business Model
  • Business Development
  • Engineering Principles
  • Tokenomics
  • Flows
  • Memetics
  • Leadership
  • Web3 Principles
  • Narrative and Goodwill
  • Community and Network Effects
  • Developer Experience
  • Token Economics
  • KPI Metrics

Questions​

Fundamental questions to ask before committing to an investment:

  • How many are going to buy this?
  • Why are they buying?
  • What time horizon?

Convictions​

  • Culture will have the greatest impact on liquidity and accrual of value.
  • The games we choose to play form the strongest cultural bonds across widest cross-sections of society.
  • Goodwill is hard won but easily lost, you can never afford to lose people's trust and faith,
  • The data layer is the most valuable layer in the tech stack.
  • Intents and Interoperability will provide a layer of abstraction (via standardization) above blockchains, where AI will automatically send intents across network arbritrage opporunities based assessment of risk vs reward profile and opportunities.
  • AI automation, Blockchain Integrity, Crypto Incentives, Internet of Signals in a closed feedback loop is the loop of the endgame.
  • Decentralization and security won't matter until we learn the cost of failure.

Investor Profiles​

Thesis from notable players in investing and crypto:

Attachments​

What is the most important question you could ask yourself to make progress?