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Investing Thesis

Diagrams | Matrices

What is the best process for evolving an investment thesis?

An invest thesis provides a framework for building belief in stories of how the future will play out, and where value will accrue.

Purpose​

The goal of writing a thesis is to score your conviction in predictions that an investment opportunity will generate compelling returns within a given future date range.

Keep your thesis succinct and focused on the most important factors driving your investment decision.

Intention​

Successful evolution of your base thesis requires balancing deeply held beliefs while remaining open and being flexible enough to adapt to changing market conditions that challenge your assumptions.

Develop a Bayesian approach to decision-making. This involves weighing new information against your prior beliefs to come up with a new set of beliefs. Refer to Todd Simkin

Big Picture Convictions​

High-level checklist for creating an investment thesis to build a picture of how, where and when value will accrue before committing to a decision strategy for controlling your position.

  1. Identify the underlying catalyst or trend driving the investment opportunity
  2. Assess how the specific investment is positioned to benefit from the catalyst
  3. Consider the biggest risks and potential downsides
  4. Determine your conviction level and expected return
  5. Write a concise statement (1-2 sentences) summarizing the investment thesis
  6. Include key supporting data points and analysis
  7. Outline your planned investment timeline and exit strategy
  8. Review and refine the thesis as new information becomes available
  9. Use the thesis to guide future decisions about the investment
  10. Be prepared to abandon the thesis if fundamental assumptions prove incorrect

Detailed Review​

  • Intentions: Clarity and consistency of direction.
  • Culture: The commitment of the community and their meme game.
  • Business Model
  • Business Development
  • Engineering Principles
  • Tokenomics
  • Flows
  • Memetics
  • Leadership
  • Web3 Principles
  • Narrative and Goodwill
  • Community and Network Effects
  • Developer Experience
  • Token Economics
  • KPI Metrics

Analysts and Investors​

Thesis from notable players in investing and crypto:

Research​