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Investment Research

How can you follow flows of capital/liquidity?

Monthly Reports​

Venture Capital​

AI and crypto incentives has changed how capital is raised/invested.

  1. Focus on recent raises, especially those in the last 1-3 months, for the most current trends.
  2. Look for common themes or sectors among projects raising significant amounts.
  3. Pay attention to which prominent VCs and investors are participating in rounds.
  4. Note the stage of funding (seed, Series A, etc.) to gauge project maturity.
  5. Compare raised amounts to industry averages to identify potentially over/undervalued projects.
  6. Research the teams and backgrounds of projects raising large sums.
  7. Look for raises in emerging technology areas or novel use cases.
  8. Cross-reference raises with other metrics like TVL or user growth when possible.
  9. Be aware of potential biases in self-reported data.
  10. Use the raises data as a starting point for deeper research, not as definitive investment advice.

Horizons​

  • Identify Promising Narratives: Identify the narratives that are likely to be the biggest during the next crypto bull market, such as AI, tokenized real-world assets, gaming, decentralized social media, and decentralized physical infrastructure.
  • Create a Crypto Watchlists: Make a list of cryptocurrencies that fall into each of these narratives, considering the price tag, market cap (large, medium, and small caps), and accessibility to retail investors, particularly in the United States.
  • Analyze major narratives and trends likely to drive the next crypto bull run (e.g. AI, tokenized assets, gaming, decentralized social, defi, physical infrastructure)
  • Stay open to emerging narratives like quantum computing
  • Identify specific pain points/use cases each narrative aims to solve

Build Watchlists​

  • For each promising narrative, compile cryptocurrencies aligned with it
  • Include mix of large caps (over $1B), mid caps ($100M-$1B), and small caps (under $100M)
  • Prioritize retail investor accessibility, especially for US markets
  • Use screeners on sites like CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko

Validate Conviction​

  • Founder Integrity: Look for information about the founders' backgrounds, why the project was started, how it works, plans for the future, and how it's being pitched to retail investors.
  • Secondary Sources: Refer to reputable sites like Binance Research, Messari, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Crunchbase, and blockchain explorers for project summaries, tokenomics, adoption metrics (wallets, downloads, dApp usage), and social media engagement.
  • Review Media Coverage: Assess coverage from reputable crypto media outlets like CoinTelegraph, CoinDesk, Decrypt, The Block, and Crypto Slate, paying attention to biases and transparency.
  • Project Blogs: Go through blog posts from the project, associated companies, and non-profits, starting from the earliest ones. Look for information on technical issues, funding rounds, milestones, and other promising projects mentioned.
  • Documentation: Go through every resource on the project's website, including terms and conditions, privacy policies, tokenomics, features, future plans, and technical documentation, paying close attention to any inconsistencies or missing information.

Founder Integrity​

Analyze Founder Interviews:

  • Start with oldest videos/content and work chronologically
  • Check official channels (prioritize long-form over short clips)
  • Assess founder backgrounds, motivations, funding, tech insights, roadmaps
  • Note how project is pitched/positioned for retail investors
  • Filter out misleading/overhyped projects early

Secondary Sources​

Verify Against Trusted Secondary Sources:

  • Cross-reference with summaries from Binance Research, Messari, CoinGecko
  • Review funding rounds, team bios on Crunchbase
  • Analyze adoption metrics: wallets, downloads, dApp usage, DEX trading
  • Check token distribution for whales that can crash price
  • Compare social media following versus engagement signals

Media Coverage​

Evaluate Media Coverage and Narratives:

  • Reputable outlets: CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph, Decrypt, The Block, etc.
  • Search for media blind spots - who is/isn't covering the project?
  • Identify prevailing narratives and counter-narratives
  • Assess transparency - is information consistent across sources?

Official Communications​

Deconstruct Official Blogs/Communications:

  • Read from inception to present across all mediums
  • Note milestones, roadmap updates, pivots, delays
  • Surface connections to other promising projects
  • Use internet archives to find deleted/scrubbed posts

Knowledge Base​

Scrutinize Websites and Documentation:

  • Analyze terms, policies, tokenomics, tech specs
  • Identify inconsistencies with other data sources
  • Ensure documentation is complete and accessible
  • Check roadmaps align with assessments from prior steps

Context​

Questions​

How do you separate signal from noise when every crypto project has a polished narrative?

  • If founder integrity is the strongest predictor of project success, what specific interview patterns distinguish genuine builders from skilled promoters?
  • When secondary sources (Messari, CoinGecko) all draw from the same on-chain data, does cross-referencing actually reduce uncertainty or just create false confidence?
  • At what point in your research process should you stop gathering information and make a decision — and how do you know you've reached it?