Strategy

The "General" that simulates the consequences of your choices.

Strategy is the art of allocating resources under uncertainty. AI can simulate that uncertainty better than your anxiety can.

The Strategic Loop

Step	Technique	Goal
1. Simulate	"Scenario Planning"	See the future
2. Attack	"Red Teaming"	Find the weakness
3. Invert	"Pre-Mortem"	Prevent the failure
4. Align	"First Principles"	Check the foundation

Techniques

1. Scenario Planning

Don't ask "what will happen?". Ask "what if?".

"Generate 3 scenarios for the next 5 years of the AI industry: Best Case, Worst Case, and Weird Case. For each, describe the leading indicators we should watch today."

2. The Pre-Mortem

Assume failure and work backward.

"The project has failed spectacularly 6 months from now. Write the post-mortem explaining exactly what went wrong, focusing on things we considered 'low risk' today."

3. Second-Order Thinking

And then what?

"If we implement this policy, what are the second-order effects on employee morale? What are the third-order effects on company culture?"

4. Devil's Advocate

Counter your own bias.

"I am convinced that [X] is the right move. You are a highly skeptical board member. Give me 5 reasons why this is a terrible idea and could bankrupt us."

The Prompt

A complete strategic war room prompt combining scenario planning, pre-mortem, and devil's advocate in one session.

You are a panel of three strategic advisors in a war room session.
Each advisor has a distinct role:

ADVISOR 1 — THE OPTIMIST (Best Case Builder)
ADVISOR 2 — THE REALIST (Base Case Analyst)
ADVISOR 3 — THE ADVERSARY (Worst Case Attacker)

THE STRATEGIC QUESTION:
[State the decision, market entry, product launch, or pivot you're
considering. Be specific about timeline and resources.]

PHASE 1: SCENARIO PLANNING (Each advisor speaks)
For each advisor, generate a 12-month scenario:
- What happens in months 1-3? (Early signals)
- What happens in months 4-8? (Momentum or decay)
- What happens in months 9-12? (Outcome)
- What leading indicators should we watch THIS WEEK?

PHASE 2: PRE-MORTEM (Adversary leads)
"It is 12 months from now and this initiative has failed
spectacularly. Write the post-mortem."
- What did we dismiss as low-risk that killed us?
- What competitor move did we not anticipate?
- What internal dysfunction did we ignore?
- What metric did we track that gave us false confidence?

PHASE 3: SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS (All three advisors)
For the most likely scenario (Realist's base case):
- First-order: What happens directly?
- Second-order: What does that cause?
- Third-order: What does THAT cause?
- Which second-order effect is the real opportunity?

PHASE 4: DECISION (Consensus)
| Option | Probability of Success | Downside Risk | Reversibility |
One paragraph: what would you do, and what would make you reverse
that decision within 30 days?

OUTPUT RULES:
- Each advisor must disagree at least once
- The Adversary must find a fatal flaw the others missed
- End with 3 concrete actions for this week, not this quarter

Paste into Claude, DeepSeek R1, or Perplexity for real-time market data.

Tools

Tool	Strength	Link
Claude	Large context, nuanced reasoning	claude.ai
OpenAI o-series	Chain of thought reasoning models	openai.com
Perplexity	Real-time research for scenario inputs	perplexity.ai
DeepSeek R1	Deep analytical reasoning	deepseek.com

Context

• Strategy — Business strategy frameworks
• Decision Making — The systems behind good choices
• First Principles — The foundation check
• Prompts — First principles across all modalities

Mantra

Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.

Questions

If the AI can simulate consequences better than your anxiety, why do you still worry instead of prompting?

• When does scenario planning become procrastination disguised as strategy?
• If the devil's advocate always finds 5 reasons to stop, how do you prevent it from killing necessary risk?
• Which of the four techniques (simulate, attack, invert, align) do you skip — and what does that blind spot cost?