Predictions / The Horizon
The Horizon
Wind and currents. Forces we read but don't control. Six domains, two-year horizon. Every prediction has a probability, a base rate, and falsifying conditions.
Read the Full ForecastSix Domains
AI Trajectory
Crypto & DePIN
Work Transformation
Healthspan
Geopolitics
Education
Anchor Bets
The spine of the forecast. Positioned March 2026, resolving by March 2028.
| Prediction | Probability | Conviction | Domain |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI agents handle 40% of knowledge worker tasks | 70% | 70% | AI Trajectory |
| AI content becomes commodity; human-curated becomes premium | 80% | 80% | Work Transformation |
| Crypto rails become default for agent-to-agent settlement | 40% | 40% | Crypto & DePIN |
| Healthspan becomes tracked consumer spending category | 75% | 75% | Healthspan |
| Prediction practice separates top-decile performers | 60% | 60% | Education |
All Predictions
9 predictions across 6 domains.
AI agents handle 40% of knowledge worker tasks
By end 2027, AI agents will handle 40% of tasks currently performed by knowledge workers in enterprises with 500+ employees.
Prior automation waves displaced 20-30% of targeted tasks within 5 years of maturity.
10%+ of e-commerce flows through agent channels
By 2028, agentic commerce redirects 10%+ of e-commerce transactions through AI agent channels.
New commerce channels typically capture 5-15% of adjacent market within 3 years of infrastructure maturity.
AI content becomes commodity; human-curated becomes premium
By end 2027, AI-generated content will be indistinguishable commodity while human-curated content commands 3x+ premium pricing.
Every content medium that was automated (stock photos, template websites) saw 70-90% price compression within 3 years.
Crypto rails become default for agent-to-agent settlement
By 2028, crypto stablecoin rails are the default settlement mechanism for autonomous agent-to-agent commercial transactions.
New payment rails take 7-10 years from regulatory clarity to default status. GENIUS Act = year 0.
DePIN networks exceed $50B market cap
DePIN networks collectively exceed $50B combined market cap by 2028.
Infrastructure networks with real revenue grow 3-5x in 2-year bull cycles. Current base: $19B.
Entry-level knowledge worker roles decline 30%
By 2028, entry-level knowledge worker positions (data entry, junior development, administrative) decline 30% from 2025 baseline.
Prior automation waves displaced 15-25% of targeted entry roles within 5 years.
Healthspan becomes tracked consumer spending category
By 2027, at least two major market research firms track 'healthspan' as a named consumer spending category.
New consumer categories take 5-10 years from niche to tracked. Healthspan is at year 2-3.
Principles-based AI regulation outperforms prescriptive
By 2028, countries with principles-based AI regulation (NZ, Singapore) outperform prescriptive-regulation countries (EU) on OECD innovation indices.
Principles-based regulation historically outperforms prescriptive in fast-moving sectors (70% base rate).
Prediction practice separates top-decile performers
By 2027, individuals and organizations with structured prediction practices will demonstrably outperform median peers on strategic decision outcomes.
Tetlock's research showed superforecasters outperform by 60% on average. The practice effect is proven in research — the question is organizational adoption.
The Process
Every prediction follows the superforecaster protocol: outside view (base rate) + inside view (domain signals) = calibrated probability.
Calibration
Questions
Which prediction do you disagree with most — and what evidence would change your mind?
- If you could only track one domain, which gives the highest decision-relevant signal?
- Which domain intersection is missing — and does its absence reveal a blind spot?
- If three predictions are wrong by 2028, which three teach you the most about how you think?