Cash Flow Projection
What breaks the model: creator adoption, not fan engagement.
$0
Starting Cash
Bootstrapped
$600
Monthly Burn
Fixed costs
M5
Break-even
Base case
$11.2K
M12 Cumulative
Base case
| Assumption | Value | Conviction | Risk If Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| New creators/month | 0.5-1.0 (ramp) | LOW | Slower ramp = longer content runway |
| Monthly growth rate | 20% MRR after first client | LOW | Linear growth more likely |
| Churn rate | 20%/month (5-month avg retention) | LOW | Creator tools are churn machines |
| ARPU (Mint Builder) | $1,500/month | MEDIUM | Price elasticity untested |
| Fixed costs | $600/month | HIGH | Known: tools + hosting + insurance |
| Variable cost/creator | $600/month (delivery labor) | LOW | 3x hours = kill |
| Item | Monthly | Annual | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tools (CRM, analytics, email) | $150 | $1800 | KEEP |
| Hosting (Vercel, domain) | $50 | $600 | KEEP |
| Insurance (professional liability) | $100 | $1200 | KEEP |
| Content/design tools | $100 | $1200 | KEEP |
| Accounting/admin | $100 | $1200 | CUT FIRST |
| Reserve/misc | $100 | $1200 | CUT FIRST |
| Total | $600 | $7,200 |
12-Month Projection (Base Case)
Month 2 assumes one Loyalty Audit ($1,500). Retainer clients start Month 4. All numbers projected.
| Month | Clients | Revenue | COGS | OpEx | Net | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $600 | $-600 | $-600 |
| 2(1 audit) | 0 | $1,500 | $200 | $600 | +$700 | +$100 |
| 3 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $600 | $-600 | $-500 |
| 4(First retainer) | 1 | $1,500 | $600 | $600 | +$300 | $-200 |
| 5 | 1 | $1,500 | $600 | $600 | +$300 | +$100 |
| 6 | 1 | $1,500 | $600 | $600 | +$300 | +$400 |
| 7 | 2 | $3,000 | $1,200 | $600 | +$1,200 | +$1,600 |
| 8 | 2 | $3,000 | $1,200 | $600 | +$1,200 | +$2,800 |
| 9 | 2 | $3,000 | $1,200 | $600 | +$1,200 | +$4,000 |
| 10 | 3 | $4,500 | $1,800 | $600 | +$2,100 | +$6,100 |
| 11 | 3 | $4,500 | $1,800 | $600 | +$2,100 | +$8,200 |
| 12 | 4 | $6,000 | $2,400 | $600 | +$3,000 | +$11,200 |
Three Scenarios
All assume 60% gross margin. If delivery hours run 3x, margin collapses and conservative never breaks even.
| Metric | Conservative | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 6 MRR | $1,500 | $3,000 | $5,000 |
| Month 12 MRR | $3,000 | $9,000 | $15,000 |
| Month 6 Clients | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Month 12 Clients | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| Gross Margin | 50% | 60% | 65% |
| Founder hrs/wk | 40 | 35 | 30 |
| Break-even | Month 10 | Month 5 | Month 3 |
| 12mo Revenue | $18,000 | $54,000 | $100,000 |
Milestones
First dollar
First Loyalty Audit paid
Break-even (monthly)
Revenue exceeds OpEx
Positive cumulative
Cumulative cash turns positive
Freedom threshold
$10,000+ MRR (replaces salary)
Cumulative cash still negative at Month 8
Threshold: Below conservative scenario
Action: Reduce scope or reprice
Delivery cost exceeds 80% of revenue
Threshold: Gross margin below 20%
Action: Stop taking clients, templatize
Zero revenue at Month 4
Threshold: No audit or retainer sold
Action: Re-evaluate demand hypothesis
Monthly burn exceeds $900
Threshold: 50% above plan without revenue
Action: Cut discretionary costs
Questions
Which assumption, if wrong by 2x, kills the model fastest — creator churn or delivery cost?
- If creators churn at 40%/month instead of 20%, does the business ever compound?
- At what client count does the delivery labor become a hiring decision rather than a solo burn?
- Does the M2 audit revenue mask a demand gap, or prove it?
- If fan engagement is not the constraint, what is the cheapest way to prove creator adoption?