Cash Flow Projection
What breaks the model: onboarding friction, not infrastructure cost.
$0
Starting Cash
Bootstrapped
$500
Monthly Burn
Fixed costs
M8
Break-even
Base case
$21.2K
M12 Cumulative
Base case
| Assumption | Value | Conviction | Risk If Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| New teams/month | 0.25-0.5 (slow ramp) | LOW | Onboarding friction = zero ramp |
| Monthly growth rate | 20% MRR growth after first paying team | LOW | B2B SaaS compounds slower than B2C |
| Churn rate | 10%/month (10-month avg retention) | LOW | Infrastructure churn = complete rebuild cost for team |
| ARPU (Venture Team) | TBD — no pricing tested | NONE | Assumed $2,000-5,000/month. Entirely projected. |
| Fixed costs | $500/month | HIGH | Known: cloud hosting + tools + domain |
| Variable cost/team | $200/month (support + infra) | LOW | Complex onboarding doubles this to $400 |
| Item | Monthly | Annual | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud hosting (Vercel, Neon, Convex) | $200 | $2400 | KEEP |
| Domain + SSL | $20 | $240 | KEEP |
| AI tools (Claude, GitHub Copilot) | $150 | $1800 | KEEP |
| Monitoring + analytics | $80 | $960 | KEEP |
| Admin/accounting | $50 | $600 | CUT FIRST |
| Total | $500 | $6,000 |
12-Month Projection (Base Case)
Months 1-5 are dogfooding only. First external team Month 6. All numbers projected — pricing is TBD.
| Month | Teams | Revenue | COGS | OpEx | Net | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1(Dogfooding) | 0 | $0 | $0 | $500 | $-500 | $-500 |
| 2 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $500 | $-500 | $-1,000 |
| 3(First external conversations) | 0 | $0 | $0 | $500 | $-500 | $-1,500 |
| 4 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $500 | $-500 | $-2,000 |
| 5 | 0 | $0 | $0 | $500 | $-500 | $-2,500 |
| 6(First external team) | 1 | $2,000 | $400 | $500 | +$1,100 | $-1,400 |
| 7 | 1 | $2,000 | $400 | $500 | +$1,100 | $-300 |
| 8(Break-even) | 2 | $4,000 | $800 | $500 | +$2,700 | +$2,400 |
| 9 | 2 | $4,000 | $800 | $500 | +$2,700 | +$5,100 |
| 10 | 3 | $6,000 | $1,200 | $500 | +$4,300 | +$9,400 |
| 11 | 3 | $6,000 | $1,200 | $500 | +$4,300 | +$13,700 |
| 12 | 5 | $10,000 | $2,000 | $500 | +$7,500 | +$21,200 |
Three Scenarios
Conservative never breaks even without external demand. Base assumes pricing lands at $2K/team/month. Bull requires 15 teams in 12 months — unlikely without self-serve onboarding.
| Metric | Conservative | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month 6 MRR | $0 | $5,000 | $10,000 |
| Month 12 MRR | $5,000 | $20,000 | $50,000 |
| Month 6 Clients | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Month 12 Clients | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| Gross Margin | 0% | 60% | 70% |
| Founder hrs/wk | 50 | 40 | 30 |
| Break-even | Month 18 | Month 8 | Month 4 |
| 12mo Revenue | $0 | $100,000 | $300,000 |
Milestones
First external team
One non-founder team onboarded and using shared infra
Break-even (monthly)
Revenue exceeds OpEx
Positive cumulative
Cumulative cash turns positive
Freedom threshold
$10,000 MRR (replaces founder salary)
No external teams by Month 6
Threshold: Zero non-founder users
Action: Pivot to open-source, remove pricing
Onboarding exceeds 40 hours per team
Threshold: 40 hrs threshold breached
Action: Stop outreach. Fix onboarding. Document everything.
Gross margin below 50% at any team count
Threshold: Support cost exceeds plan
Action: Raise price or automate support before adding teams
Monthly burn exceeds $800
Threshold: 60% above plan without revenue
Action: Cut non-essential tools immediately
Questions
If pricing is wrong by 2x in either direction, which scenario survives?
- At what ARPU does the conservative scenario break even inside 12 months?
- Is the $500/month burn the real number, or does solo architect time have a shadow cost?
- If the first external team pays nothing (pilot), does that extend or shorten the path to revenue?