Predictions
The best way to predict the future is to dreamineer it's existence.
Job to be done: Identify trends and thinkers you need to pay attention to and forecast when they will make a critical impact.
Context
- Dreamer/CEO: Run to where the ball is going to be
- Purpose: Why you are here
- Probability: Expectations of outcomes
- Investing: Cultivating narratives and sizing bets
- Perspective: Reality leaves a lot to the imagination
- Luck & Optimism: Positive mindset
- First Principles: Real world engineering
Questions
- Which actors have proven record of accurate predictions?
- What is their system?
- How do you discover new talent?
- Where do you need to position yourself?
- What assets and capabilities required?
- How should you size bets/conviction?
Vision and Expectations
Big picture convictions that will shape the future. How will innovation vectors combine to drive exponential change.
| Prediction | Conviction | Time Horizon | Signs |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI and DePin will form a Positive Feedback Loop | |||
| Inner Space will be the most important frontier for humans to explore | |||
| AI intents will dominate trading and investment fundraising | |||
| Re-education demand for 30 years and older | |||
| In the immediate future AI will replace many more jobs that it creates | |||
| Mental health issues: People left searching for security and meaning. | |||
| The future of work is fluid, people that can adapt to chaos will thrive. | |||
| AI will expose hierarchies of inefficiency | |||
| Scams Identity and Privacy | |||
| Customisation of Longevity through Health Optimisation |
Indepth Understanding
We are moving towards a decentralized world where knowledge is free but understanding is priceless.
Inhouse and Onshore
- Data (inference) is competitor advantage
- Make manufacturing great again
- Custom software to own data
Workforce Wallets
We will interact with the digital world through a personalized AI guardian angel that will custody all data, and share as required with other AI agents to grant privileges and prove credibility and credentials to be granted privileges leaving humans to focus more of connection and culture.
Everything of value will be tokenized and interconnected onchain, with ownership fractionalized and behaviour incentivized where blockchains provide verifiable proof and AI closes the feedback loop on autonomous systems.
As DePIN technologies converge to close the loop between the physical and digital worlds there will be dramatic improvement of energy efficiency and transparency capital flows for optimum infrastructure utilization. The question is, where and how will humans add value to the loop?
The creation and adoption of Global Standards for "Trustless Instruments" will be crucial for the widespread adoption of these technologies, ensuring interoperability and seamless integration across different systems and platforms.
The world is about to go through a period of exponential change. The sooner you prepare, the better positioned you will be to adapt.
The future is already here but is not evenly distributed.
Smart Agents
Hyperstition: Humans will be moist robots in the hands of superior intelligence, agents powers of persuasion will make predictions self-fulfilling prophecies.
Soon there will be billions of niche Crypto Agents that work in teams to form autonomous positive feedback loops that fuel exponential growth leaving humans to focus on meaning, culture, community and what it means to have soul.
We are moving to the internet of intent where every person will have a team of personalized AI agents managing exchange of value onchain while customizing phygital experiences to enable the exploration of potential.
Software Development
AI coding will be more about directing agents through writing functional specifications.
AI Impact
- AI will lead to flatter organizational structures with fewer managers.
- People will need to become more multidisciplinary as AI takes over some specialized roles.
- Rise of gig economy with quality real world experiences priced at premium.
- People will need to become more multidisciplinary as AI takes over some specialized roles.
- Education will be transformed by AI teachers reaching millions globally.
AI Limitations
- AI still struggles to fully capture individual writing voices and styles.
- Open-source efforts by large tech companies may pose challenges for AI startups.
- There are concerns about job displacement as AI becomes more capable, particularly for white-collar jobs.
Engineer positive collisions that make meetings matter
Protocol
Systems and Habits
Can you train yourself to see the future?
Build a big picture of how you believe the world will change then work backwards to establish decisions and positions that will optimize your chances to thrive.
To accurately predict the future would be a superpower, the greatest value of predictions is evolving standardized systems for applying consistent rigorous analysis while balancing intuition and creativity vs data and evidence.
What happens when millions of people find out the skills they spent thousands of hours building have been replaced by AI?
- How are these challenges changing from generation to generation?
- How can each generation help the other by providing different capabilities?
Extrapolate trends to forecast pictures of the future.
Futurist Games
Games can help individuals and organizations to better prepare themselves for potential future scenarios, develop more robust strategies, and cultivate a more flexible and adaptive mindset when facing uncertain futures.
What are the best games to play for gaining skills that improve capability to predict the future?
Evolution
- Awareness
- Attention
- Speculation
- Hypothesis
- Conviction
See poker
Futurist Games are designed to help people imagine and prepare for various future scenarios. They typically involve:
- Exploring potential future events and their consequences
- Developing strategies to address future challenges
- Enhancing cognitive flexibility and adaptability
Benefits of Future Forecasting Games
- Increase future-mindedness
- Improve pattern recognition skills
- Enhance strategic thinking abilities
- Boost creativity in problem-solving
Key Elements of Effective Forecasting Games
- Collaborative gameplay
- Scenario-based challenges
- Time-based projections (6 years into the future)
- Realistic but unexpected future events
Practical Applications
- Long-term strategic planning
- Developing crisis response strategies
- Fostering innovation and creative thinking
Cognitive Skills Development
- Anticipatory thinking
- Scenario planning abilities
- Adaptive decision-making skills
Overcoming Cognitive Biases
- Challenge their assumptions about the future
- Recognize and mitigate personal biases
- Consider a wider range of possibilities
Scorecard
| Meta | Purpose | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction | ||
| Time Frame | ||
| Conviction | ||
| Positioning | ||
| Bet Allocation |
Conviction Score
You cannot borrow conviction, it must earned.
Constantly improve systems to validate convictions to optimize positioning to close down threats and maximize opportunities. Checklist for checking convictions before committing bets to decisions:
- Have I considered alternative viewpoints?
- Am I falling prey to any cognitive biases?
- Have I sought out disconfirming evidence?
- Am I thinking probabilistically rather than in absolutes?
- Have I discussed this decision with others and considered their feedback?
- Am I basing my decision on solid evidence rather than emotions or intuition?
- Have I considered the potential long-term consequences?
- Am I aware of the limitations of my knowledge and predictions?
- Have I accounted for the possibility of rare, high-impact events?
- Am I prepared to update my beliefs if new information becomes available?
- Have I considered the opportunity costs of this decision?
- Am I clear about my goals and how this decision aligns with them?
- Have I given myself enough time to think through this decision thoroughly?
- Am I aware of any external pressures influencing my decision?
- Have I considered the reversibility of this decision and potential exit strategies?
Verifiable Truths
What verifiable truths underpin your convictions?
- The question is always more important than the answer.
- Money is a proxy for value, valuable things directly add to a sense of fulfilment in the here and now.
- Everyone has a deep need to feel their existence is of value and is appreciated.
- Trusted connections are the most valuable thing in the world to build.
- Life is a coordination game: nothing in this world feels as good as success as a team.
- When you form a great team even if you fail in the goal, you will still win in the long run.
- Breakthroughs come where differences of opinion collide
- AI must have decentralized ownership to be worthy of trust.
- Games build social glue
- AI and Crypto are changing marketing
- Community building marketing is essential to crypto
- The flow of progress is dependent on social glue
- Life time in flow is the most valuable metric
- Games are taking over the world, Crypto and AI are taking over games
- The future is already here it just is not evenly distributed
- Most important area for exploration is consciousness (inner space).
- If you spend your time with good people you are doing well.
- Your culture is most valuable asset
Use the scientific method to reliably convert process into expected outcomes.
Confidence
Analyse trends to forecast the future.
- Use trends to shape predictions
- Use predictions to prepare opportunities
- Create connections leverage growth
Investing
- Culture is king
- Every brand/network state will be an ecosystem abstracted above blockchain layers
- Businesses/Protocols are consequences of collaborative decision-making
- Valuable data is life-blood of strong decision-making
- Follow the talent, great people make the difference
Business
The intersection of AI and Blockchain is where the greatest value unlocks will occur.
- Product engineering will eat marketing.
- Service and growth is customised.
- Better to be great than big.
Sales and Marketing
- In a world where anyone can be the world's best digital marketer, nobody is.
Software
AI is making SaaS apps a commodity where everyone and anyone can compete, so entering a race to the bottom on pricing. Better to use software to operate with maximum effectiveness in real world verticals.
- The End of Programming is near
- Anyone can build any software product.
- Collecting and processing trusted proprietary data is where the value lies.
- For a piece of information to be valuable it needs to be actionable.
- Any protocol is only going to be valuable as it's proprietary data.
Technology
- The greatest frontier for fruitful exploration is inner space.
- To be effective with AI you need to have succinct bredth and depth of domain of expertise to prompt effectively.
- Currently we are in the gap between prompting AI and AI prompting us.