Predictions
The next 6 years will bring exponential change and redistribution of wealth, but will it be centralized or decentralized?
The future is already here but is not evenly distributed.
Purpose
Build a big picture of how you believe the world will change then work backwards to establish decisions and positions that will optimize your chances to thrive.
To accurately predict the future would be a superpower, the greatest value of predictions is evolving standardized systems for applying consistent rigorous analysis while balancing intuition and creativity vs data and evidence.
What happens when millions of people find out the skills they spent thousands of hours building have been replaced by AI?
- How are these challenges changing from generation to generation?
- How can each generation help the other by providing different capabilities?
Related
Progression
Use experiments and systems to evolve capability to enter new markets and predict the future.
- Awareness
- Speculation
- Hypothesis
- Conviction
Prediction Markets
How can you use prediction markets to make better decisions for your future self?
Who makes predictions worth paying attention to? What is their process?
Futurist Games
Games can help individuals and organizations to better prepare themselves for potential future scenarios, develop more robust strategies, and cultivate a more flexible and adaptive mindset when facing uncertain futures.
See poker
Futurist Games are designed to help people imagine and prepare for various future scenarios. They typically involve:
- Exploring potential future events and their consequences
- Developing strategies to address future challenges
- Enhancing cognitive flexibility and adaptability
Benefits of Future Forecasting Games
- Increase future-mindedness
- Improve pattern recognition skills
- Enhance strategic thinking abilities
- Boost creativity in problem-solving
Key Elements of Effective Forecasting Games
- Collaborative gameplay
- Scenario-based challenges
- Time-based projections (6 years into the future)
- Realistic but unexpected future events
Practical Applications
- Long-term strategic planning
- Developing crisis response strategies
- Fostering innovation and creative thinking
Cognitive Skills Development
- Anticipatory thinking
- Scenario planning abilities
- Adaptive decision-making skills
Overcoming Cognitive Biases
- Challenge their assumptions about the future
- Recognize and mitigate personal biases
- Consider a wider range of possibilities
Conviction
You cannot borrow conviction, it must earned.
Constantly improve systems to validate convictions to optimize positioning to close down threats and maximize opportunities. Checklist for checking convictions before committing bets to decisions:
- Have I considered alternative viewpoints?
- Am I falling prey to any cognitive biases?
- Have I sought out disconfirming evidence?
- Am I thinking probabilistically rather than in absolutes?
- Have I discussed this decision with others and considered their feedback?
- Am I basing my decision on solid evidence rather than emotions or intuition?
- Have I considered the potential long-term consequences?
- Am I aware of the limitations of my knowledge and predictions?
- Have I accounted for the possibility of rare, high-impact events?
- Am I prepared to update my beliefs if new information becomes available?
- Have I considered the opportunity costs of this decision?
- Am I clear about my goals and how this decision aligns with them?
- Have I given myself enough time to think through this decision thoroughly?
- Am I aware of any external pressures influencing my decision?
- Have I considered the reversibility of this decision and potential exit strategies?
Truths
What are the immutable truths that underpin your convictions?
- The question is always more important than the answer.
- Money is a proxy for value, valuable things directly add to a sense of fulfilment in the here and now.
- Everyone has a deep need to feel their existence is of value and is appreciated.
- Trusted connections are the most valuable thing in the world to build.
- Life is a coordination game: nothing in this world feels as good as success as a team.
- When you form a great team even if you fail in the goal, you will still win in the long run.
- Breakthroughs come where differences of opinion collide
- AI must have decentralized ownership to be worthy of trust.
- Games build social glue
- AI and Crypto are changing marketing
- Community building marketing is essential to crypto
- The flow of progress is dependent on social glue
- Life time in flow is the most valuable metric
- Games are taking over the world, Crypto and AI are taking over games
- The future is already here it just is not evenly distributed
- Most important area for exploration is consciousness (inner space).
- If you spend your time with good people you are doing well.
- Your culture is most valuable asset
Confidence
Analyse trends to forecast the future.
- Use trends to shape predictions
- Use predictions to prepare opportunities
- Create connections leverage growth
Expectations
Big picture convictions that will shape the future. How will innovation vectors combine to drive exponential change.
| Prediction | Conviction | Time Horizon | Signs |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI and DePin will form a Positive Feedback Loop | |||
| Inner Space will be the most important frontier for humans to explore | |||
| AI intents will dominate trading and investment fundraising | |||
| Re-education demand for 30 years and older | |||
| In the immediate future AI will replace many more jobs that it creates | |||
| Mental health issues: People left searching for security and meaning. | |||
| The future of work is fluid, people that can adapt to chaos will thrive. | |||
| AI will expose hierarchies of inefficiency | |||
| Scams Identity and Privacy | |||
| Customisation of Longevity through Health Optimisation |
Investing
- Culture is king
- Every brand/network state will be an ecosystem abstracted above blockchain layers
- Businesses/Protocols are consequences of collaborative decision-making
- Valuable data is life-blood of strong decision-making
- Follow the talent, great people make the difference
Business
The intersection of AI and Blockchain is where the greatest value unlocks will occur.
- Product engineering will eat marketing.
- Service and growth is customised.
- Better to be great than big.
Software
AI is making SaaS apps a commodity where everyone and anyone can compete, so entering a race to the bottom on pricing. Better to use software to operate with maximum effectiveness in real world verticals.
- The End of Programming is near
- Anyone can build any software product.
- Collecting and processing trusted proprietary data is where the value lies.
- For a piece of information to be valuable it needs to be actionable.
- Any protocol is only going to be valuable as it's proprietary data.
Technology
- The greatest frontier for fruitful exploration is inner space.
- To be effective with AI you need to have succinct bredth and depth of domain of expertise to prompt effectively.
- Currently we are in the gap between prompting AI and AI prompting us.