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AI/LLM Benchmarks

How do you know an AI claim is real and not marketing theater?

Benchmarks provide the reference context required to judge performance.

Benchmark Role

Without BenchmarksWith Benchmarks
"Our model is better" claimsComparable, repeatable evaluation
Vendor storytelling dominatesEvidence dominates
Optimization is randomImprovement targets are clear
Decisions follow hype cyclesDecisions follow measured thresholds

Benchmark Types

TypeWhat It MeasuresWhy It Matters
CapabilityReasoning, coding, retrieval, tool useCan it do the task at required quality?
ReliabilityConsistency, hallucination rate, failure modesCan it be trusted in production?
EfficiencyLatency, throughput, cost per outputCan it scale economically?
SafetyPolicy adherence, harmful output controlsCan it operate within governance bounds?
RobustnessPerformance under distribution shiftDoes it degrade gracefully in the real world?

Decision Thresholds

Define thresholds before model selection:

DimensionExample Threshold
Quality>= target pass rate on domain eval set
Latency<= required response budget for workflow
Cost<= allowed unit economics per task
Reliability<= failure rate trigger threshold
Safety0 critical policy failures in test suite

No threshold, no valid decision.

Workflow Benchmarks

For AI agents and assistant workflows, benchmark task utility directly:

DimensionBenchmark Question
Task completionDoes the system complete the intended workflow end to end without retries?
First-pass accuracyWhat percentage of outputs pass human or automated checks on first run?
Tool reliabilityHow often do tool calls fail, timeout, or require manual intervention?
Recovery behaviorWhen failures occur, does the system recover safely and continue?
Human override rateHow often does an operator need to intervene to finish the task?

If these do not improve, the AI layer adds complexity without operational leverage.

Bullshit Detection

A claim fails if any item is missing:

  1. Named benchmark or dataset
  2. Baseline comparison
  3. Reproducible evaluation method
  4. Error bars or confidence context
  5. Cost and latency alongside quality

If a vendor shows only one metric, assume selection bias until proven otherwise.

Benchmark Stack

LayerStandard NeedOutput
DataCanonical eval set definitionsComparable tests
ProtocolShared scoring rulesRepeatable results
InfrastructureLogging and traceabilityAudit-ready evidence
GovernanceAcceptance and kill criteriaControlled deployment decisions

This is the same logic as industrial quality control.

Operating Cadence

CadenceActivity
Pre-deployBaseline and candidate benchmark run
WeeklyDrift checks on core tasks
MonthlyCost/latency/quality re-optimization
QuarterlyBenchmark suite revision and threshold reset

Context