Idea Discovery
You don't invent demand. You discover it where forces create friction.
Before filling out the Business Plan Template, you need an idea worth pursuing. This page is about finding it.
The Loop
The same control system that governs thinking governs venture creation:
◇ INTENTION → ▽ AWARENESS → ▷ IMPACT → ● MEASURE → ? REFLECT
↑ ↓
└──────────────── step outside ───────────────────┘
| Move | Symbol | In Venture Creation | The Trap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intention | ◇ | Why does this force matter? What's the thesis? | Motion without meaning |
| Awareness | ▽ | Where's the opportunity? What patterns emerge? | Blind spots, missing signals |
| Impact | ▷ | Validate. Make contact with reality. | Building without testing |
| Measure | ● | Traction. Unit economics. Capital efficiency. | Hoping instead of knowing |
| Reflect | ? | Is this the right game? Portfolio fit? | Never questioning the bet |
The Tight Five checkpoints map directly:
| # | Checkpoint | Venture Application | Maps To |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Why does this matter? | The Thesis - transformational forces | Purpose |
| 2 | What truths guide you? | Principles that constrain options | Principles |
| 3 | What do you control? | Your platform, assets, unfair advantages | Platform |
| 4 | What do you see others don't? | Opportunity discovery - your edge | Perspective |
| 5 | How do you know it's working? | Validation + Capital metrics | Performance |
The Stack
FUNDAMENTAL FORCES → TECH AMPLIFIERS → ENABLING PROTOCOLS → OPPORTUNITY
The window: ~2 years before AI + data enters a self-reinforcing loop. Position now.
Fundamental Forces
Four forces transform reality. Master them or be moved by them.
| Force | What It Is | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Data | Patterns, know-how | Makes action informed |
| Money | Tokenized time | Enables coordination |
| Stories | Shared meaning | Shapes belief and action |
| Time & Energy | Attention, life force | The ultimate constraint |
Tech Amplifiers (ABCD Stack)
Technology amplifies each fundamental force:
| Layer | Tech | Force Amplified | What Changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | AI | Data → pattern recognition at scale | Intelligence becomes commodity |
| B | Blockchain | Money → verifiable, programmable | Trust without intermediaries |
| C | Crypto | Stories → tokenized coordination | Everyone becomes bank/investor |
| D | DePIN | Time & Energy → distributed capture | Ownership at the edges |
| + | Space | All forces → abundance infrastructure | Scarcity assumptions collapse |
Enabling Protocols
Tech amplifiers require protocols to function. These are the rails:
| Domain | Protocol | What It Enables |
|---|---|---|
| Identity | ZK Proofs, Proof of Personhood | Privacy-preserving verification |
| Commerce | UCP (Google), Agent Commerce | AI agents transact autonomously |
| Coordination | A2A, MCP | Agents collaborate across systems |
| Physical AI | Intercognitive | Machines perceive real world (positioning, sensors, maps) |
| Creativity | Proof of Creativity | IP attribution and value flow |
| Compute | Trusted Execution, Verifiable Compute | Scale without trust assumptions |
The meta-insight: As computing and AI become cheap, the scarcest assets become human qualities—empathy, creativity, judgment, meaning. Technology forces an upgrade in human skills.
Forces in Detail
AI + Agents
Individual leverage explodes. Small teams do work that previously required large organizations.
- Near-term: Contact centers, content generation, code, research
- Medium-term: AI agents operating on tokenized capital via Agent Commerce Protocol
- Protocols required: MCP for tool use, A2A for agent coordination, UCP for commerce
Your edge: Not raw access to models—combining imagination + domain insight + human-centric design.
Space as Abundance Infrastructure
Not science fiction. Japanese experiments on solar power satellites. Helium-3 on the Moon for fusion/quantum. Asteroid mining missions (Psyche, Bennu) imply metal supply multiples of global GDP.
- Bottlenecks to own: Arctic ground stations, icebreaker yards, orbital fuel depots, in-orbit refineries
- Protocols required: Intercognitive for positioning, Universal Machine Time for synchronization
- Timeline: Enabling infrastructure is 3-7 years; full abundance is 15-20 years
- The trap: Pricing in abundance before infrastructure exists
Tokenization = Everyone a Bank
Traditional model: Banks originate mortgages, BlackRock buys them at scale, retail gets indirect exposure via REITs.
Tokenized model: Property wrapped in SPV, issues tokens representing cashflow claims, anyone buys $200-$20k slices, rental income distributes in USDC.
| Old World | New World |
|---|---|
| Banks control mortgage function | Smart contracts coordinate capital |
| Only accredited investors | Global retail participation |
| Illiquid (years to exit) | Secondary markets (days to exit) |
| Wall Street/SV gatekeepers | Stablecoin rails bypass intermediaries |
Protocols required: Identity (ZK proofs), payment rails (stablecoins), legal wrappers (SPV/LLC).
Examples:
- Homebase - Tokenized single-family rental on Solana ($246k raised from 38 investors)
- ICON 3D-printed homes + Tesla Powerwalls - House pays the mortgage via excess solar
DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure)
Token incentives coordinate real-world infrastructure deployment without central capital.
- Energy: Solar grids, EV charging networks
- Compute: Distributed GPU/storage (Filecoin, Render, Akash)
- Mobility: Ride networks, delivery, logistics
- Data: Sensors, oracles, location services
Protocols required: Intercognitive (9 pillars: Identity, Fees, Maps, Sensors, Positioning, Compute, Connectivity, Orchestration, Standards).
NZ angle: Prevent platform value leakage—foreign intermediaries clip 2-30% from local businesses. Build sovereign alternatives.
Opportunity Discovery
The Five Smartest Questions
| Question | Why It's Smart |
|---|---|
| What breaks the abundance narrative? | If space/AI timeline slips, which assets crater? Where's the dot-com crash hiding? |
| Who owns the bottleneck between here and abundance? | Capital flows to near-term chokepoints, not distant visions |
| Which tokenized structures solve real friction TODAY? | Not all tokenization is equal—which actually reduces cost/time/access? |
| What's the regulatory/geopolitical risk if this works? | Success at scale attracts government attention |
| What are actual unit economics of the examples cited? | Direction right ≠ timing right. Calibrate narrative vs. reality. |
Pattern Recognition
Workaround Patterns — What are people hacking or misusing?
- What spreadsheets/manual processes shouldn't exist?
- What are customers using products for that wasn't intended?
Repeated Pain — What have you complained about 2-3 times?
- Track frustrations for a week
- Where do support tickets cluster?
Behavioral Gaps — What people SAY vs what they DO
- Stated preferences ≠ actual behavior
- What are they embarrassed to admit they need?
Leverage Technology — Where can you 3-5x human output?
- What decisions are slow that could be fast?
- Where is expertise bottlenecked on individuals?
NZ-Specific Opportunities
| Platform Value Leak | Current Clip | Sovereign Alternative |
|---|---|---|
| Card schemes | 1-3% | NZ payments rails |
| Booking.com | 15-25% | NZ.com tourism app |
| Uber | 25-30% | Community mobility |
| Google/Meta | Ad spend | Local AI layer |
Rod Drury's Tight Five for NZ:
- Digital Identity (Matter-based national ID)
- Payments (lower costs, open banking)
- Energy (renewable nation as competitive edge)
- Regional Templates (Queenstown as prototype)
- Applied AI (agile testbed, not frontier models)
Validation
The Flow
RESEARCH → VALIDATE → PITCH
| Step | Artifact | Purpose | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Idea Research | Generate and explore opportunities | Validated niche with demand evidence |
| 2 | Idea Evaluation | Stage-gate validation | Go/no-go decision at each stage |
| 3 | Business Plan | Rod-ready pitch document | Fundable A4 summary |
Stage Gates
| Stage | Gate Question | Kill If... |
|---|---|---|
| 0. Self | Why YOU, THIS, NOW? | No founder-market fit |
| 1. Market | Evidence people will pay? | Assumptions, not evidence |
| 2. Distribution | Audience waiting for what you'll build? | No channel to customers |
| 3. Tech | 2-3 high-impact areas for 10x improvement? | Tech for tech's sake |
| 4. AI | Prioritized roadmap with clear ROI? | No measurable leverage |
| 5. Crypto | Genuine value from tokenization? | Tokenization without friction reduction |
| 6. Vertical | Entry wedge in specific industry? | Too broad, no expertise |
| 7. Execution | Smallest viable experiment defined? | Waiting for perfect conditions |
Capital
The Prompt/Pitch Deck
The Tight Five works for both ideation (prompting yourself) and selling (pitching investors):
| # | Question | As Prompt (Ideation) | As Pitch (Selling) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Why does this matter? | Forces problem clarity | Sells the problem |
| 2 | What truths guide you? | Defines constraints | Establishes credibility |
| 3 | What do you control? | Maps your assets | Shows defensibility |
| 4 | What do you see others don't? | Identifies insight | Creates conviction |
| 5 | How do you know it's working? | Defines success metrics | Proves traction |
The difference from traditional pitch decks: This never goes stale. It's built for continuous alignment in a world where everyone becomes a micro-VC through tokenization.
Capital Formation Options
| Instrument | Best For | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|
| Equity | High-growth, VC-backable | Dilution, board control |
| SAFE | Pre-revenue, speed | Valuation cap negotiation |
| Token warrants | Crypto-native, community | Regulatory complexity |
| Revenue share | Cashflow-positive, bootstrap | Caps upside |
| Tokenized SPV | Real assets, fractional ownership | Legal wrapper required |
The "Everyone a Bank" Playbook
For asset-backed opportunities (real estate, energy, infrastructure):
- Wrap asset in legal structure (LLC/SPV)
- Tokenize equity or debt claims
- Sell tokens for stablecoins (USDC)
- Distribute cashflows programmatically
- Trade on secondary markets for liquidity
What this enables:
- Retail investors act as micro-banks (inject capital, receive yield)
- Global capital pool for local projects
- Liquidity where traditional real estate has none
Actionable Insights
From Pippa Malmgren's abundance thesis:
| Insight | Time to Payoff | Capital | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Position for unglamorous bottlenecks (icebreakers, ground stations, orbital logistics) | 18-36 mo | $5k-$50k | Macro/thematic betting |
| Build tokenized RWA for proven friction (not theoretical) | 12-24 mo | $15k-$50k | Product-market fit testing |
| AI agent + tokenized capital product | 18-36 mo | $80k-$200k | Highest leverage, needs team |
| Own a niche before saturation | 12-24 mo | $5k-$20k | Information advantage |
| Calibrate your P(success) to YOUR beliefs (not the optimist's) | Ongoing | $0 | Risk management |
The Loop Connection
Business ideas live inside the control system. Each section maps to a move:
◇ INTENTION ▽ AWARENESS ▷ IMPACT ● MEASURE ? REFLECT
│ │ │ │ │
▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼
FORCES OPPORTUNITY VALIDATION CAPITAL PORTFOLIO
(Thesis) (Discovery) (Stage Gates) (Traction) (Review)
The stack flows into the loop:
PRINCIPLES (first truths)
↓
FORCES (data, money, stories, time)
↓
TECH AMPLIFIERS (AI, Blockchain, Crypto, DePIN)
↓
PROTOCOLS (identity, commerce, coordination, compute)
↓
STANDARDS (what proves reliable)
↓
PLATFORM (compounding capability)
↓
OPPORTUNITY (where stack meets friction)
| Layer | Examples | Links To |
|---|---|---|
| Principles | Physics, psychology, economics | /docs/principles/ |
| Forces | Data, money, stories, time & energy | /docs/principles/forces/ |
| Tech | AI, Blockchain, Crypto, DePIN | /docs/platform/ |
| Protocols | MCP, A2A, UCP, Intercognitive, ZK | /docs/protocols/ |
| Standards | Proven patterns that compound | /docs/standards/ |
| Platform | Where protocols become capability | /docs/platform/ |
The question that closes the loop:
Is this the right game? Or should you step outside and question the bet itself?
Related
The Stack:
- Principles — First truths that constrain options
- Forces — Data, money, stories, time & energy
- Protocols — Repeatable methods from principles
- DePIN Agent Protocols — AI + Crypto rails
- Standards — Proven patterns that compound
- Platform — Where protocols become capability
Application:
- Questions — The Tight Five framework
- Decisions — Technology and strategy choices
- Industries — Vertical deep dives
- Tokenization — Asset tokenization mechanics
- DePIN — Decentralized infrastructure
- Crypto Capital — Venture and token economics
- Rod Drury — NZ infrastructure playbook
What force would you bet on if you had to choose one?