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Predictions

Prediction is the core human capability. Every nervous system exists to predict — to model what comes next so the organism can survive and thrive.

What questions should you be asking to help make the invisible visible and build conviction in how the future needs to play out?

Why Prediction Matters​

Prediction isn't a technique. It's what minds do.

SpeciesPrediction CapabilitySurvival Function
BacteriaChemical gradientsMove toward food, away from poison
FishWater pressure patternsAvoid predators, find prey
MammalsComplex world modelsNavigate social hierarchies, plan hunts
HumansAbstract future simulationBuild civilizations, create technology

Your brain is a prediction machine. Every perception is a prediction about what's causing your sensory input. Every decision is a prediction about which action leads to better outcomes.

The quality of your predictions determines the quality of your life.

PREDICTION → ACTION → CONSEQUENCE → FEEDBACK → BETTER PREDICTION

This is the loop. This is agency. This is survival.

Prediction as Commitment to Truth​

A prediction is a commitment to truth. You can't claim conviction without defining what would change it.

The Truth-Seeking Protocol applies:

QuestionInvestment ContextLife Context
What am I predicting?Specific thesisWhat outcome do I expect?
How confident am I?Conviction 0-5How much would I bet?
How will I know?Success criteriaWhat would prove me right/wrong?
What would change my mind?Update triggersWhat evidence would shift me?

The feedback loop (monitor → evaluate → update) is what separates prediction from wishful thinking.

AI and Robotics represents a Supersonic Tsunami - Elon Musk

Better to ride the wave than get caught in it's impact zone.

Principles​

CapabilityKey PromptWhen to Use
Evaluation"Is this prediction worth tracking?"Scoring prediction quality
Probability"What's my base rate before new evidence?"Sizing bets, calibrating confidence
Forecasting"What does the future require to be true?"Building prediction skill
Markets"What do I know that the market doesn't?"Testing predictions with stakes
Process"What's my conviction level (0-5)?"Tracking and validating predictions
Database"What do experts predict?"Reference library of forecasts
2026 Review"What does 2026 require to be true?"Archetype analysis of 2026 forecasts

The Problem​

The problem isn't data — it's conviction.

  • We consume endless forecasts but rarely act on them
  • We see trends but can't size the bets
  • We know change is coming but don't know when
  • We understand probability intellectually but feel certainty emotionally

Predictions are not guesses. They're the perceive that builds conviction—seeing the emerging future clearly enough to bet on it before others do.

Situational Wisdom​

If you're thinking...Master...
"Is this prediction worth tracking?"Evaluation
"I need to size this bet"Probability
"How do superforecasters think?"Forecasting
"Where can I test predictions?"Markets
"How do I track predictions?"Process
"What do experts predict?"Database
"What's coming in 2026?"2026 Review

Character​

What traits do superforecasters share?

Calibration — Know how confident you should be. A 70% prediction should be right 70% of the time—not more, not less.

Updating — Strong opinions, loosely held. New evidence changes beliefs. Ego doesn't protect priors.

Decomposition — Break big questions into smaller, answerable parts. Fermi estimation over gut feeling.

Intellectual Humility — "I might be wrong" is the prerequisite to "What am I missing?"

Curiosity — Genuine interest in how systems work and what drives change.

Practice​

Use the tracking-predictions skill to maintain the prediction database systematically.

Daily​

Before making decisions:

  1. What's my base rate for this outcome?
  2. What evidence would change my mind?
  3. Am I updating enough—or too much?

Weekly (15 min)​

Scan for prediction-relevant signals:

  1. What news affects existing predictions?
  2. Flag predictions needing conviction updates
  3. Note: "Evidence strengthened" or "Evidence weakened"

Monthly (30 min)​

Review and update:

  1. Update conviction scores with reasoning
  2. Add new predictions from month's observations
  3. Check: Any predictions ready to resolve?

Quarterly (1 hour)​

Calibrate:

  1. Were my 70% predictions right ~70% of the time?
  2. Where am I consistently overconfident?
  3. Where am I consistently underconfident?
  4. What domains/horizons have gaps?

Tight Five for 2027​

What's your platform for the AI transition?

  1. Top 5 Questions
  2. Top 5 Activities
  3. Top 5 Assets
  4. Top 5 Capabilities
  5. Top 5 Numbers

Evolution Path​

2024-2026: Foundations​

  • Build agentic infrastructure through DePIN
  • Establish tokenized reputation systems
  • Deploy AI-driven personalized learning
  • Rise of AI workflow designers as highest-paid professionals

2027-2030: Human-AI Synergy​

  • Scale autonomous feedback loops with crypto agents
  • Premium pricing for genuine human experiences
  • Transition from traditional education to AI-personalized
  • Implement UBI through tokenized AI task systems

2031+: Cultural Integration​

  • Full unification of physical and digital worlds
  • Cultural motivators replace economic incentives
  • Inner space exploration becomes primary human frontier
  • New societal structures based on human agency

Implications for positioning:

Where will be the best place to live when intelligence has no moat and money is meaningless?

Trad Lens (Now)Future Lens (2031+)
Where can I make money?Where can I live well?
Business opportunityGood company
Talent poolValues alignment
Scale capacityBeauty / Nature
Tax optimizationHealth / Longevity

See Countries Framework for how this reorders country rankings.

Applied Prediction​

Prediction frameworks for specific domains:

DomainFrameworkCore Question
DePINAsset AnalysisDoes this infrastructure solve a real problem at scale?
Technology2026 ReviewWhat does the AI transition require to be true?
MarketsPrediction MarketsWhat do I know that the market doesn't?

Go Deeper​