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Predictions

What future is already here that you haven't recognized yet?

The Evolution Loop - Validated Virtuous Feedback Loop

The future is already here—it's just not evenly distributed.

— William Gibson

The Problem​

The problem isn't data—it's conviction.

  • We consume endless forecasts but rarely act on them
  • We see trends but can't size the bets
  • We know change is coming but don't know when
  • We understand probability intellectually but feel certainty emotionally

Predictions are not guesses. They're the perceive that builds conviction—seeing the emerging future clearly enough to bet on it before others do.

Prediction Capabilities​

CapabilityKey PromptWhen to Use
Evaluation"Is this prediction worth tracking?"Scoring prediction quality
Probability"What's my base rate before new evidence?"Sizing bets, calibrating confidence
Forecasting"What does the future require to be true?"Building prediction skill
Markets"What do I know that the market doesn't?"Testing predictions with stakes
Process"What's my conviction level (0-5)?"Tracking and validating predictions
Database"What do experts predict?"Reference library of forecasts
2026 Review"What does 2026 require to be true?"Archetype analysis of 2026 forecasts

Situational Wisdom​

If you're thinking...Master...
"Is this prediction worth tracking?"Evaluation
"I need to size this bet"Probability
"How do superforecasters think?"Forecasting
"Where can I test predictions?"Markets
"How do I track predictions?"Process
"What do experts predict?"Database
"What's coming in 2026?"2026 Review

Character​

What traits do superforecasters share?

Calibration — Know how confident you should be. A 70% prediction should be right 70% of the time—not more, not less.

Updating — Strong opinions, loosely held. New evidence changes beliefs. Ego doesn't protect priors.

Decomposition — Break big questions into smaller, answerable parts. Fermi estimation over gut feeling.

Intellectual Humility — "I might be wrong" is the prerequisite to "What am I missing?"

Curiosity — Genuine interest in how systems work and what drives change.

Practice​

Use the tracking-predictions skill to maintain the prediction database systematically.

Daily​

Before making decisions:

  1. What's my base rate for this outcome?
  2. What evidence would change my mind?
  3. Am I updating enough—or too much?

Weekly (15 min)​

Scan for prediction-relevant signals:

  1. What news affects existing predictions?
  2. Flag predictions needing conviction updates
  3. Note: "Evidence strengthened" or "Evidence weakened"

Monthly (30 min)​

Review and update:

  1. Update conviction scores with reasoning
  2. Add new predictions from month's observations
  3. Check: Any predictions ready to resolve?

Quarterly (1 hour)​

Calibrate:

  1. Were my 70% predictions right ~70% of the time?
  2. Where am I consistently overconfident?
  3. Where am I consistently underconfident?
  4. What domains/horizons have gaps?

Tight Five for 2027​

What's your platform for the AI transition?

  1. Top 5 Questions
  2. Top 5 Activities
  3. Top 5 Assets
  4. Top 5 Capabilities
  5. Top 5 Numbers

Evolution Path​

2024-2026: Foundations​

  • Build agentic infrastructure through DePIN
  • Establish tokenized reputation systems
  • Deploy AI-driven personalized learning
  • Rise of AI workflow designers as highest-paid professionals

2027-2030: Human-AI Synergy​

  • Scale autonomous feedback loops with crypto agents
  • Premium pricing for genuine human experiences
  • Transition from traditional education to AI-personalized
  • Implement UBI through tokenized AI task systems

2031+: Cultural Integration​

  • Full unification of physical and digital worlds
  • Cultural motivators replace economic incentives
  • Inner space exploration becomes primary human frontier
  • New societal structures based on human agency

Go Deeper​