Education Industry
Ignorance might be bliss, but the unexamined life is not worth living. Education is a lifelong pursuit.
Every day you invest your lifeforce. Time × Energy = Attention—the one asset you can't get back. Every decision is a deployment: where you point it, who you give it to, what you build with it.
Good investments compound into a platform to operate from. Bad investments erode it. A life well-lived is the cumulative result of attention well-invested.
Good investing requires good judgment. Good judgment is the art of living. If this is true—isn't learning to invest the most valuable skill everyone needs?
What if education became a lifelong game—the heroes journey from pain to agency, guided by those just ahead of you on the path?
Playbook
| Prompts | Questions | Reflections |
|---|---|---|
| Principles | What guides us? | Agency compounds, portfolios replace papers |
| Performance | Is it working? | Ship rate, agency scores, network effects |
| Protocols | How do we do it? | Heroes journey, coaching loops, feedback |
| Platform | What tools? | ABCD stack for learning |
| Players | Who's involved? | Institutions, accelerators, learners |
Most Important Question
When AI tutors can teach anything and credentials can be forged, what remains—and who captures it?
The Transformation Thesis
Education is transitioning from credentialing to agency-building:
| From | To | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Credential factories | Agency accelerators | AI makes knowledge commodity |
| Degrees as signal | Portfolios of shipped work | Verifiable output > verifiable input |
| What to know | How to act | Knowledge is free, judgment is scarce |
| Institution-gated | Open access + coaching | Barriers to information collapse |
| Compliance-based | Initiative-based | Following instructions becomes automatable |
Opportunity Score
Aggregate: 7.2 / 10 | Classification: Strong Position
| Dimension | Score | Key Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Market Attractiveness | 7.5 | $7.3T global market, structural inefficiency |
| Technology Disruption | 8.0 | AI tutors outperforming human teachers in trials |
| VVFL Alignment | 7.5 | Loop works—shipped work creates network, attracts more |
| Competitive Position | 7.0 | First-mover in agency-explicit curriculum wins |
| Timing Risk | 6.0 | Institutional resistance, credential inertia |
Verdict: Strong fundamentals. 2026 is inflection year—AI capability crosses visibility threshold. Those building agency accelerators now capture the wave.
First Principles
| Principle | Why Immutable | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Agency compounds | Pattern skills stack exponentially | Early agency → lifetime advantage |
| Shipped work proves | Output can't be faked like credentials | Portfolios replace papers |
| Coaching unlocks | Belief precedes capability | Great coaches > great content |
| Networks multiply | Talent discovers talent | Masterminds > classrooms |
| Games train patterns | Tightest feedback loops exist in play | Games as serious pedagogy |
See Principles for the full framework.
The VVFL in Education
Ship Projects → Build Portfolio → Attract Network → Get Coaching → Ship Better
↑ ↓
└────────────────── Credibility funds more building ────────────┘
More shipped work → Stronger portfolio → Better network → More opportunity → More shipped work
Value Chain Disruption
| Stage | Traditional | Agency Accelerator | Margin Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Content | Professors (high cost) | AI tutors + curated paths | → Technology |
| Credentialing | Degrees (4-year lock-in) | On-chain portfolios | Bypassed |
| Career Entry | Recruitment funnels | Network + shipped work | → Learners |
| Ongoing Dev | Corporate training (low ROI) | Coaching + feedback loops | → Coaches |
| Community | Alumni networks (weak) | Active masterminds | → Participants |
Friction → Opportunity Map
| Friction | Layer | Status | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Content access | AI | 🟢 Solved | AI tutors deliver personalized path |
| Credential verification | Blockchain | 🟡 Growing | On-chain credentials, proof of work |
| Coaching scarcity | Community | 🔴 Gap | Token-incentivized coaching |
| Network formation | DePIN | 🔴 Gap | Decentralized talent discovery |
| Motivation alignment | Crypto | 🟡 Growing | Learn-to-earn, skin in the game |
Highest-Value Gaps
1. Coaching Layer
AI handles content delivery. Human coaching remains irreplaceable—belief transfer, accountability, pattern recognition in individuals.
| Component | Gap | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Supply | Great coaches are rare | Coach-training protocols |
| Matching | Finding right coach is luck | Reputation oracles |
| Economics | Coaching doesn't scale | Token-aligned incentives |
2. Network Formation
Traditional education bundles content + network. Unbundle, and network becomes the primary value.
| Component | Gap | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery | Talent hidden by geography | Global talent matching |
| Trust | No portable reputation | On-chain skill proofs |
| Access | Networks are gatekept | Permissionless joining |
Deep Dives
| Section | Deep Dive | What's There |
|---|---|---|
| Principles | First Principles | 5 immutable truths |
| Protocols | Heroes Journey | Agency curriculum framework |
| Platform | ABCD Stack | Technology layers |
| Players | Ecosystem | Who does what |
Parallel Disruption
Education and telecom face the same transformation:
| Dimension | Education | Telecom |
|---|---|---|
| Incumbent moat | Credentials + prestige | Spectrum + capex |
| Extraction | Tuition to endowments | ARPU to shareholders |
| Threat | AI tutors + portfolios | Community coverage |
| Crypto rails | Learn-to-earn | Token incentives |
| AI layer | Personalized coaching | Routing optimization |
See Telecom Industry for the parallel pattern.
The 2026 Split
Based on 2026 predictions, education divides:
| Credential Factories | Agency Accelerators |
|---|---|
| Degrees and tests | Portfolios of shipped work |
| What to know | How to act |
| Static job descriptions | Self-directed value creation |
| Institution-gated knowledge | Open access + coaching |
| Compliance | Initiative |
The only robust career of the future is entrepreneurship. Not employment in a static job description—self-directed value creation.
Education ⇄ Culture
Education and culture aren't separate domains. They're the same feedback loop.
Games → Patterns → Beliefs → Identity → Culture
↑ ↓
└──────────── shapes what's learned ─────┘
| Entry Point | The Same Pattern |
|---|---|
| Education | Games → Patterns → Beliefs → Identity → Agency |
| Culture | Games → Beliefs → Consensus → Identity → Coordination |
| Onboarding | Standards → Belonging → Contribution → Identity → Crew |
| Coaching | ZPD → Scaffold → Growth → Identity → MKO for others |
The insight:
- What you learn shapes what you believe
- What you believe shapes how you coordinate
- How you coordinate shapes what gets learned
- Education creates culture. Culture creates education.
The Pit of Success: Good education—like good onboarding—doesn't require heroic effort. It creates conditions where people naturally succeed. The guardian creates the environment. The learner falls into success.
"We want our customers to simply fall into winning practices by using our platform and frameworks." — Rico Mariani
This is what standards actually do. They're not bureaucratic constraints—they're the architecture of the pit. A well-designed standard makes success the path of least resistance. Bad education is a Pit of Despair—you climb toward success, always one misstep from falling. Good education inverts this: you fall toward success, and climbing out requires deliberate effort.
Everyone is Coach and Student. Context determines which. Your son coaches you in Fortnite. You coach him in life decisions. The role flips based on who's ahead in THIS specific zone of proximal development.
The Capability Curriculum
If not knowledge (AI delivers it free) and not credentials (portfolios prove more)—what should education actually develop?
| Priority | Capability | Why It Matters | AI Can't |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Systems Thinking | See feedback loops, find leverage, understand how standards transform | Design the pit you fall into |
| 2 | Connecting | When AI connects dots, humans connect hearts | Consciousness meeting consciousness |
| 3 | Shipping | Ideas without ships are noise | Judgment under uncertainty |
| 4 | Predicting | Read what's coming through games and sports | Intuition from embodied experience |
| 5 | Character | Who you are when it's hard | Integrity under pressure |
The inversion: Traditional education maximizes codified knowledge (AI's domain) while neglecting systems thinking and character (human's domain). Agency accelerators invert this.
Systems vs Goals
Scott Adams' distinction: Goals create perpetual pre-success failure. Systems create success every time you apply them.
| Goals (Fragile) | Systems (Antifragile) |
|---|---|
| "Lose 20 pounds" | "Eat right daily" |
| "Get a degree" | "Ship projects weekly" |
| "Find a job" | "Build network continuously" |
| "Learn Python" | "Code something every day" |
Goal-oriented people exist in a state of continuous failure until they reach the goal. Systems people succeed every time they apply their system. The education that teaches systems thinking—not goal achievement—creates learners who feel successful while learning.
See Capabilities for the full menu and Money Matrix for how capabilities create value.
Context
- Capabilities — The capability curriculum
- Agency — What we're building toward
- Play — The heroes journey framework
- Predictions — The 2027 thesis
- 2026 Review — Education splits prediction
- Prediction Database — Track predictions
- Work Charts — Human/AI split methodology
The Meta Question
"When knowledge becomes free and credentials become meaningless—what makes someone educated?"