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Timing

When matters as much as what—is now the moment?

Mantra

Being right but early is indistinguishable from being wrong - Bill Gross

Perceive: What Is Timing?​

Market timing is the alignment between your solution and the world's readiness to adopt it. Technology, regulation, consumer behavior, and infrastructure must all converge for an idea to succeed. The same idea that fails in one era can dominate in another.

The Timing Variables​

FactorQuestion
Technology readinessAre the enabling technologies mature enough?
InfrastructureAre distribution channels and support systems in place?
Regulatory environmentIs the legal landscape permissive or hostile?
Consumer behaviorHave habits shifted to make adoption natural?
Economic conditionsIs capital available? Are customers spending?
CompetitionIs the market nascent, growing, or saturated?

Why Ideas Fail Before Their Time​

  • Pets.com (2000): Right idea, wrong time. E-commerce infrastructure wasn't ready.
  • Newton (1993): Apple's tablet failed. iPad (2010) succeeded.
  • Webvan (1999): Grocery delivery collapsed. Instacart (2012) thrived.

The difference wasn't the idea—it was the timing.

Question: Why Does Timing Matter?​

danger

Too early = being right but dead. Too late = commoditized competition.

The Timing Paradox​

Visionaries are often early. The challenge is surviving long enough for the market to catch up—or recognizing when patience is wisdom versus when it's denial.

The Cost of Being Early​

  • Capital exhaustion before product-market fit
  • Educating the market at your expense
  • Competitors learning from your mistakes

The Cost of Being Late​

  • Market leaders have network effects and brand
  • Talent and capital flow to incumbents
  • Differentiation becomes harder and more expensive

The Goldilocks Window​

There's a window where:

  • Technology is proven but not commoditized
  • Early adopters exist but mainstream hasn't arrived
  • Competition is emerging but hasn't consolidated

This window is smaller than it appears and doesn't announce itself.

Act: How to Read Timing​

1. Track Technology Curves​

Understand where enabling technologies sit on the adoption curve:

  • Emerging: Experimental, limited real-world use
  • Growing: Working but expensive/complex
  • Mature: Cheap, reliable, widely available

2. Watch Adjacent Innovations​

Breakthroughs in adjacent fields often unlock new possibilities:

  • Mobile processors enabled smartphones
  • Cloud computing enabled SaaS
  • Blockchain enabled DeFi

3. Monitor Behavioral Shifts​

Consumer behavior changes slowly, then suddenly:

  • COVID accelerated remote work adoption by years
  • Gen Z's comfort with digital-native experiences
  • Growing distrust of centralized institutions

4. Test Market Readiness​

Run small experiments to gauge timing:

  • Are early adopters willing to pay?
  • Can you acquire customers profitably?
  • Is word-of-mouth working?

5. Calibrate Patience vs Pivot​

If the market isn't ready:

  • Survive mode: Reduce burn, extend runway, wait for conditions to change
  • Pivot mode: Apply capabilities to adjacent market that is ready
  • Exit mode: Recognize when the window has closed or moved

Timing Signals​

Positive signals:

  • Incumbent players entering the space
  • Regulatory clarity (even if restrictive)
  • Supporting infrastructure becoming commoditized
  • Consumer awareness growing organically

Negative signals:

  • Still explaining the category to customers
  • No adjacent successful implementations
  • Infrastructure costs prohibitive
  • Regulatory hostility

Checklist​

  • What enabling technologies does your solution depend on?
  • Where are these technologies on the maturity curve?
  • Has consumer behavior shifted to make adoption natural?
  • Is infrastructure in place for scale?
  • What would need to be true for timing to be right?

Context​