Strategy
The "General" that simulates the consequences of your choices.
Strategy is the art of allocating resources under uncertainty. AI can simulate that uncertainty better than your anxiety can.
The Strategic Loop
| Step | Technique | Goal |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Simulate | "Scenario Planning" | See the future |
| 2. Attack | "Red Teaming" | Find the weakness |
| 3. Invert | "Pre-Mortem" | Prevent the failure |
| 4. Align | "First Principles" | Check the foundation |
Techniques
1. Scenario Planning
Don't ask "what will happen?". Ask "what if?".
"Generate 3 scenarios for the next 5 years of the AI industry: Best Case, Worst Case, and Weird Case. For each, describe the leading indicators we should watch today."
2. The Pre-Mortem
Assume failure and work backward.
"The project has failed spectacularly 6 months from now. Write the post-mortem explaining exactly what went wrong, focusing on things we considered 'low risk' today."
3. Second-Order Thinking
And then what?
"If we implement this policy, what are the second-order effects on employee morale? What are the third-order effects on company culture?"
4. Devil's Advocate
Counter your own bias.
"I am convinced that [X] is the right move. You are a highly skeptical board member. Give me 5 reasons why this is a terrible idea and could bankrupt us."
Tools
- Anthropic Claude - Large context for reading immense strategy docs.
- OpenAI o1/o3 - "Reasoning" models that think before they speak.
Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.