Reference library of predictions across domains. Track what's emerging, what's imminent, and what's distant.
Context
Workforce Automation
See Work Charts replacing Org Charts
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Data entry and information transfer roles will be fully automated | 5/5 | Short | RPA tools replacing manual workflows |
| AI workflow designers become the highest-paid professionals | 5/5 | Short | Mapping human processes into AI-augmented workflows |
| The cost of software goes to near zero | 5/5 | Short | AI generating code from screenshots |
| Small businesses operate with "ghost teams" of automated agents | 4/5 | Short | AI tools replacing traditional support roles |
| Most customer support, including complex multi-step resolutions, will be automated | 4/5 | Medium | Chatbots and AI assistants replacing human agents |
| AI exposes organizational inefficiencies (flattened hierarchies) | 5/5 | Short | Middle management layoffs at tech giants |
| The "Billion $ Founder" business model emerges | 5/5 | Short | Five-person startups leveraging AI to compete with larger organizations |
Education
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Traditional education becomes obsolete | 4/5 | Medium | World Bank study showing AI-driven educational outcomes outperform traditional methods |
| Tertiary institutions lose relevance for hiring | 4/5 | Medium | Expertise sourced via LLMs performing better than most professionals |
| Schools are dis-intermediated by AI tutors | 4/5 | Medium | Smart teens skipping formal education to build audiences and businesses |
| AI-driven personalized learning becomes mainstream | 5/5 | Short | Platforms like Squirrel AI gaining traction |
| Hybrid learning models dominate | 4/5 | Medium | VR/AR-based education adoption |
| Lifelong learning platforms powered by AI become standard | 4/5 | Medium | Growth in re-skilling initiatives |
Human Agency & Empathy
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Personal agency and judgment become critical assets | 5/5 | Short | Shift from education-based hiring to problem-solving capabilities |
| Empathy and human-to-human connection become paramount | 5/5 | Medium | ChatGPT outperforming doctors in diagnostics but lacking human touch |
| Premium pricing for "human experience" services | 5/5 | Medium | Luxury sectors growing faster than GDP |
| Mental health crisis from automation-induced purpose vacuum | 4/5 | Medium | Rising depression rates globally |
| Humans transition from the prompters to the prompted | 5/5 | Medium | Agents incentivizing human behavior |
| Original human thinking becomes a premium | 4/5 | Medium | AI-generated content creating monoculture of ideas |
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Finding problems to solve becomes more valuable than coding solutions | 5/5 | Short | AI handling technical execution while humans focus on strategy |
| AI turns service businesses into product businesses | 4/5 | Medium | New unicorns emerging with service margins but product scalability |
| AI creates winner-take-most markets | 4/5 | Short | 6-12 month window to establish dominance in a vertical |
| The "sketching economy" makes taste and ideation the only scarce resources | 4/5 | Medium | AI turning sketches into production-ready designs |
| AI middleman companies between foundation models and industries capture most value | 4/5 | Medium | Both ends of the value chain becoming commoditized |
| AI un-bundles search engines, creating billion-dollar vertical opportunities | 4/5 | Medium | Specialized search tools emerging across industries |
Crypto-AI Ecosystems
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Trillions of niche Crypto Agents form autonomous feedback loops | 3/5 | Medium | Growth of DePIN networks like Helium |
| Tokenized attention loops replace ad-based monetization | 4/5 | Medium | SocialFi experiments (Farcaster, Friend.Tech) |
| Soul/identity tokens become the most valuable human asset | 4/5 | Medium | Proof of Personhood adoption |
| Cultural systems replace economic incentives as primary motivators | 4/5 | Long | Growth in storytelling-based business models |
| AI-optimized longevity protocols become standard | 3/5 | Long | Emerging projects like VitaDAO |
Infrastructure & Energy
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Manufacturing resurgence through custom AI software | 3/5 | Medium | Tesla's humanoid robot prototypes |
| Bipedal robots become larger industry than automotive | 3/5 | Long | Advancements in robotics technology |
| Fusion power deployment repurposes coal plants | 3/5 | Medium | Replacing boilers with advanced energy systems |
| Super hot geothermal energy becomes cheaper than natural gas | 3/5 | Medium | Advancements in drilling technology |
| AI-driven public transit becomes more convenient than cars | 3/5 | Long | Increasing street capacity in urban areas |
| AI improves mineral and metal discovery | 3/5 | Medium | Enhanced subsurface scanning technologies |
Governance & Coordination
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Futarchy experiments gain traction in DAOs | 3/5 | Medium | Polymarket success, DAO governance failures |
| AI-assisted policy analysis becomes standard for governments | 4/5 | Medium | Singapore, Estonia digital government initiatives |
| Prediction markets inform policy decisions in some countries | 3/5 | Long | Academic interest, crypto regulatory clarity |
| Decentralized identity becomes requirement for online voting | 3/5 | Long | Proof of Personhood projects, election integrity debates |
Prediction Matrix
Strategic view of coverage. Gaps = blind spots.
| Domain | Short (1yr) | Medium (3yr) | Long (5yr+) |
|---|
| AI/Automation | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Education | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Human Agency | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Business Models | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Crypto/DePIN | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Energy/Infrastructure | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Governance | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Blind spots identified:
- Long-term predictions sparse across all domains
- Crypto/DePIN has no short-term predictions
- Short-term predictions concentrated in AI/Automation
2026 Predictions (All-In Discussion)
Source: All-In Podcast 2026 Predictions. Reviewed via five archetype analysis.
AI Capabilities & Scale
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| 2026 = "100x year" in effective AI scale (quantization + hardware + algorithms) | 5/5 | Short | FP4/ternary quantization already shipping; inference costs dropping monthly |
| Chinese quantization breakthroughs propagate globally | 4/5 | Short | DeepSeek, Qwen models already demonstrating efficiency gains |
| AI provers trigger "takeoff" in mathematical discovery | 3/5 | Short | AlphaProof, Lean integration improving but not yet exponential |
| AI solves Clay Millennium Prize problem (Navier-Stokes/Riemann) | 2/5 | Short | Verification timelines extend beyond 2026 even if breakthrough occurs |
AI in Organizations
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| 2026 = year organizations "wake up" to acceleration | 5/5 | Short | Board/CEO AI agenda items; emergency strategy reviews |
| Remote-first companies quietly mix AI and human teammates | 4/5 | Short | Already happening; infrastructure exists; adoption not breakthrough |
| AI-native greenfield teams cut headcount 10-20x | 4/5 | Short | Startup evidence emerging; math checks out at 80-90% task automation |
| "Digital transformation" declared dead, replaced by AI-native rewrites | 3/5 | Short | Narrative shift in consulting; legacy modernization → replacement |
| Consulting firms survive if they help redesign public institutions | 3/5 | Medium | Business model under pressure; government contracts as lifeline |
Remote Turing Test & AI Coworkers
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Full-stack AI accountants/lawyers/marketers appear as video agents | 3/5 | Short | Vertical SaaS + avatar tech converging |
| People deploy multiple "Peterbots" to attend meetings | 2/5 | Short | Technically possible but socially fraught; trust degradation |
| Remote Turing test passed (1080p-4K Zoom indistinguishable) | 2/5 | Short | 80% there ≠ passed; latency + lip sync + context all must be perfect |
Benchmarks & Knowledge Work
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| GDP-Val benchmark exceeds 90% | 3/5 | Short | Trajectory supports; benchmark may be gamed |
| Frontier Math Tier 4 surpasses 40% | 3/5 | Short | Rapid progress in math reasoning |
| "Humanity's Last Exam" exceeds 75% | 3/5 | Short | Benchmark saturation pattern continuing |
| 90% of knowledge work becomes automatable | 3/5 | Short | Automatable ≠ automated; adoption lags capability |
| Human cognitive labor price "goes negative" vs AI | 2/5 | Short | False dichotomy; some tasks negative, others premium |
Education & Careers
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Portfolios of shipped projects replace degrees as hiring signal | 4/5 | Short | Already true in tech; pattern spreading |
| Education splits: credential factories vs agency accelerators | 4/5 | Medium | Visible divergence; bootcamps vs universities |
| Agency accelerators teach HOW to develop agency (initiative, resilience, AI fluency, building) | 4/5 | Medium | Shift from "what to know" to "how to act"; agency as explicit curriculum |
| Only robust career = entrepreneurship/self-directed value creation | 3/5 | Medium | Overstated but directionally correct |
| Custom offerings tailored to target company replace resumes | 3/5 | Medium | Early examples emerging; AI enables personalization |
| College tuition peaks and begins declining | 2/5 | Short | Higher ed resists market forces; "begins declining" too specific |
Robotics & Autonomy
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Late 2026 "feels like the future" - impossible to ignore | 5/5 | Short | Convergence of visible AI + robots + autonomy creates perception shift |
| Some countries deregulate to attract autonomous vehicles/robots | 4/5 | Short | Jurisdictional competition already visible |
| Multi-arm robots handling dull/dangerous/dirty jobs in some zones | 3/5 | Short | Demos impressive; deployment limited |
| Humanoid robots with genuine generalized autonomy possible | 2/5 | Short | Definition games; edge cases unsolved |
| Level-5 autonomy technically achieved in 2026 | 2/5 | Short | "Technically" doing heavy lifting; 99.9%→99.99% gap enormous |
| OEMs/regulators relabel as "enhanced level 4/3" for liability | 3/5 | Short | Likely regardless of technical achievement |
Longevity & Medicine
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| Bio and CS fields effectively merge | 4/5 | Short | AlphaFold proof; every serious bio lab hires ML engineers |
| Longevity becomes computable/scalable problem | 3/5 | Medium | Framing correct; timeline uncertain |
| Partial epigenetic reprogramming succeeds in human trials | 2/5 | Short | "Succeeds" ambiguous; safety signals take years |
| Longevity escape velocity ~2030-2032 | 2/5 | Medium | Milestone prediction; 2026 trials as waypoint |
Wealth Creation & Billionaires
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| AI trading agents become net profitable and scale-limited | 4/5 | Short | Already true; hedge funds deploying; description not prediction |
| Going from new acronym to billion-dollar company becomes "routine" | 3/5 | Short | Speed increasing but "routine" overstated |
| New 3-4 letter niche mints very young billionaires | 2/5 | Short | Base rate: extremely rare; exceeds all precedent |
| Single-founder billion-dollar startup by 2026-2027 | 2/5 | Short | Possible but base rate near-zero |
| First AI billionaire in 2026 (autonomous trading agent) | 1/5 | Short | Definitionally problematic; legal frameworks don't allow |
Societal & Governance
| Prediction | Conviction | Horizon | Evidence/Signs |
|---|
| 2026 feels "more like the future" than any previous year | 5/5 | Short | Sentiment prediction; convergence creates perception |
| Still no agreed AGI/ASI definition despite widespread capable systems | 5/5 | Short | Historical pattern: definitions never agreed until irrelevant |
| Governance/policy becomes competitive advantage | 4/5 | Short | Jurisdictional arbitrage visible; NZ opportunity |
| UBS concepts gain traction (~$250/month for basics) | 2/5 | Medium | "Gain traction" vague; political will weak |
| "A thousand X-Prizes" for human effort allocation | 2/5 | Medium | Interesting mechanism; no signs of implementation |
Prediction Matrix
Strategic view of coverage. Gaps = blind spots.
| Domain | Short (1yr) | Medium (3yr) | Long (5yr+) |
|---|
| AI/Automation | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Education | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Human Agency | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Business Models | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Crypto/DePIN | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Energy/Infrastructure | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Governance | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026 Predictions | 35 | 5 | 0 |
Blind spots identified:
- Long-term predictions sparse across all domains
- Crypto/DePIN has no short-term predictions
- Short-term predictions concentrated in AI/Automation
- 2026 batch heavily short-term (by design)
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