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Forecasting

Qualify and quantify forecasts for what the future looks like.

You are only as good as your processes are consistent to produce reliable quality. Consistency takes discipline. Forecasting has to be built upon consistency.

Approach​

Most important check your work against the scientific method to keep yourself honest.

  1. Triage
  2. Break Problems Down
  3. Balance Perspectives
  4. Update your Beliefs
  5. Connect the Dots
  6. Remove Uncertainty
  7. Balance Risk
  8. Document Decisions
  9. Grow a Team

Triage​

Stop losses first. Focus on questions where your hard work will have an immediate pay off before seeking opportunities.

Break Problems Down​

Identity the true nature of the problem.

Balance Perspectives​

Take inside and outside views, reality leaves a lot to the imagination.

Update your Beliefs​

Strong opinions loosely held.

Connect the Dots​

Everything is connected, look for the meta of the matter.

Remove Uncertainty​

Establish what you hold to be true.

Balance Risk​

Prudence and Decisiveness

Learn from Decisions​

Document how and why decisions are made. Aim to improve that process rather than focusing on results.

Grow a Team​

Spread the load, create more valuable insights.

Storytelling​

Make data-driven decisions linked to Discounted Cash Flow through quantifiable narratives.