Todd Simkin

Decision-making in trading and finance:

• Recognize information asymmetry and be willing to update opinions with new data
• Use Bayesian thinking to update probabilities as new information comes in
• Look for disconfirming information before taking a position
• Avoid resulting and hindsight bias when evaluating trades
• Model decision processes for others to learn from
• Encourage open communication about trade rationales
• Shield feedback-givers from knowing results to focus on process

Bayesian thinking and probability:

• Start with prior probabilities and update with new information
• Consider multiple possible outcomes and their likelihoods
• Avoid binary thinking - use probability distributions
• Calibrate probability estimates through frequent predictions
• Seek feedback on predictions to improve calibration over time
• Use probabilistic language rather than absolutes
• Consider base rates when assessing likelihoods

Cognitive biases and heuristics:

• Be aware of common biases like confirmation bias and hindsight bias
• Use checklists and structured processes to counter biases
• Seek outside perspectives to identify blind spots
• Practice identifying biases in others' thinking
• Use pre-mortems to anticipate potential failures
• Regularly reflect on and analyze past decisions
• Create an environment that rewards truth-finding over being right

Constructive communication and feedback:

• Model openness to feedback for others
• Ask "Tell me more" to encourage elaboration without judgment
• Frame feedback requests in terms of specific behaviors to improve
• Actually change behavior based on feedback received
• Shield feedback-givers from results to focus on process
• Encourage peer feedback and discussion of decisions
• Create psychological safety for open communication

Teaching and mentoring strategies:

• Identify learners' zone of proximal development
• Provide appropriate scaffolding to help learners progress
• Model thought processes and decision-making out loud
• Use reflective listening to check understanding
• Ask probing questions rather than giving answers
• Create opportunities for deliberate practice
• Give specific, actionable feedback

Parenting and family relationships:

• Model deliberate decision-making for children
• Ask "How do you feel about that?" before giving advice
• Use reflective listening to understand children's perspectives
• Demonstrate unconditional love and support
• Encourage children to think through consequences of decisions
• Model open communication and vulnerability
• Create opportunities for children to make age-appropriate choices

Personal growth and overcoming depression:

• Seek professional help when struggling
• Identify and change self-sabotaging behaviors
• Build a support network of caring people
• Set achievable goals and celebrate small wins
• Practice self-compassion and avoid harsh self-criticism
• Engage in regular self-reflection and journaling
• Develop healthy coping mechanisms for stress

The importance of education and continuous learning:

• Cultivate curiosity and a growth mindset
• Seek out diverse learning experiences
• Reflect on and apply lessons from experiences
• Share knowledge with others to deepen understanding
• Set aside time for deliberate learning and skill development
• Stay updated on developments in your field
• Be open to changing your mind with new information

Reflective listening and empathy:

• Repeat back what you heard to confirm understanding
• Ask clarifying questions without judgment
• Avoid interrupting or jumping to problem-solving
• Pay attention to non-verbal cues and emotions
• Validate others' feelings before offering perspective
• Practice perspective-taking to build empathy
• Create space for others to fully express themselves

The value of professional mental health support:

• Destigmatize seeking therapy and mental health care
• Schedule regular mental health check-ups, like physical check-ups
• Be open about therapy experiences to normalize it for others
• Develop a relationship with a therapist before crises arise
• Use therapy for personal growth, not just problem-solving
• Combine professional support with self-care practices
• Encourage loved ones to seek help when needed

Jeopardy experience and risk management:

• Prepare thoroughly in areas of weakness
• Focus on optimal betting strategies, not just knowledge
• Consider risk-reward tradeoffs in wagering decisions
• Stay calm under pressure and stick to your strategy
• Learn from both wins and losses to improve future performance
• Apply lessons from game theory to real-world decisions
• Seek feedback from experts on your decision process

Life lessons from parents and passing them on to children:

• Model hard work and dedication to long-term goals
• Demonstrate the value of education through actions
• Show unconditional love and acceptance
• End interactions with expressions of love
• Teach children to think through decisions carefully
• Model vulnerability and open communication
• Create opportunities for children to learn from experiences