Skip to main content

Todd Simkin

Wisdom​

Decision-making in trading and finance:

  • Recognize information asymmetry and be willing to update opinions with new data
  • Use Bayesian thinking to update probabilities as new information comes in
  • Look for disconfirming information before taking a position
  • Avoid resulting and hindsight bias when evaluating trades
  • Model decision processes for others to learn from
  • Encourage open communication about trade rationales
  • Shield feedback-givers from knowing results to focus on process

Bayesian thinking and probability:

  • Start with prior probabilities and update with new information
  • Consider multiple possible outcomes and their likelihoods
  • Avoid binary thinking - use probability distributions
  • Calibrate probability estimates through frequent predictions
  • Seek feedback on predictions to improve calibration over time
  • Use probabilistic language rather than absolutes
  • Consider base rates when assessing likelihoods

Cognitive biases and heuristics:

  • Be aware of common biases like confirmation bias and hindsight bias
  • Use checklists and structured processes to counter biases
  • Seek outside perspectives to identify blind spots
  • Practice identifying biases in others' thinking
  • Use pre-mortems to anticipate potential failures
  • Regularly reflect on and analyze past decisions
  • Create an environment that rewards truth-finding over being right

Constructive communication and feedback:

  • Model openness to feedback for others
  • Ask "Tell me more" to encourage elaboration without judgment
  • Frame feedback requests in terms of specific behaviors to improve
  • Actually change behavior based on feedback received
  • Shield feedback-givers from results to focus on process
  • Encourage peer feedback and discussion of decisions
  • Create psychological safety for open communication

Teaching and mentoring strategies:

  • Identify learners' zone of proximal development
  • Provide appropriate scaffolding to help learners progress
  • Model thought processes and decision-making out loud
  • Use reflective listening to check understanding
  • Ask probing questions rather than giving answers
  • Create opportunities for deliberate practice
  • Give specific, actionable feedback

Parenting and family relationships:

  • Model deliberate decision-making for children
  • Ask "How do you feel about that?" before giving advice
  • Use reflective listening to understand children's perspectives
  • Demonstrate unconditional love and support
  • Encourage children to think through consequences of decisions
  • Model open communication and vulnerability
  • Create opportunities for children to make age-appropriate choices

Personal growth and overcoming depression:

  • Seek professional help when struggling
  • Identify and change self-sabotaging behaviors
  • Build a support network of caring people
  • Set achievable goals and celebrate small wins
  • Practice self-compassion and avoid harsh self-criticism
  • Engage in regular self-reflection and journaling
  • Develop healthy coping mechanisms for stress

The importance of education and continuous learning:

  • Cultivate curiosity and a growth mindset
  • Seek out diverse learning experiences
  • Reflect on and apply lessons from experiences
  • Share knowledge with others to deepen understanding
  • Set aside time for deliberate learning and skill development
  • Stay updated on developments in your field
  • Be open to changing your mind with new information

Reflective listening and empathy:

  • Repeat back what you heard to confirm understanding
  • Ask clarifying questions without judgment
  • Avoid interrupting or jumping to problem-solving
  • Pay attention to non-verbal cues and emotions
  • Validate others' feelings before offering perspective
  • Practice perspective-taking to build empathy
  • Create space for others to fully express themselves

The value of professional mental health support:

  • Destigmatize seeking therapy and mental health care
  • Schedule regular mental health check-ups, like physical check-ups
  • Be open about therapy experiences to normalize it for others
  • Develop a relationship with a therapist before crises arise
  • Use therapy for personal growth, not just problem-solving
  • Combine professional support with self-care practices
  • Encourage loved ones to seek help when needed

Jeopardy experience and risk management:

  • Prepare thoroughly in areas of weakness
  • Focus on optimal betting strategies, not just knowledge
  • Consider risk-reward tradeoffs in wagering decisions
  • Stay calm under pressure and stick to your strategy
  • Learn from both wins and losses to improve future performance
  • Apply lessons from game theory to real-world decisions
  • Seek feedback from experts on your decision process

Life lessons from parents and passing them on to children:

  • Model hard work and dedication to long-term goals
  • Demonstrate the value of education through actions
  • Show unconditional love and acceptance
  • End interactions with expressions of love
  • Teach children to think through decisions carefully
  • Model vulnerability and open communication
  • Create opportunities for children to learn from experiences