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Convictions

You cannot borrow conviction, it must earned.

Constantly improve systems to validate convictions to optimize positioning to close down threats and maximize opportunities. Checklist for checking convictions before committing bets to decisions:

  • Have I considered alternative viewpoints?
  • Am I falling prey to any cognitive biases?
  • Have I sought out disconfirming evidence?
  • Am I thinking probabilistically rather than in absolutes?
  • Have I discussed this decision with others and considered their feedback?
  • Am I basing my decision on solid evidence rather than emotions or intuition?
  • Have I considered the potential long-term consequences?
  • Am I aware of the limitations of my knowledge and predictions?
  • Have I accounted for the possibility of rare, high-impact events?
  • Am I prepared to update my beliefs if new information becomes available?
  • Have I considered the opportunity costs of this decision?
  • Am I clear about my goals and how this decision aligns with them?
  • Have I given myself enough time to think through this decision thoroughly?
  • Am I aware of any external pressures influencing my decision?
  • Have I considered the reversibility of this decision and potential exit strategies?

Verifiable Truths​

What verifiable truths underpin your convictions?

  • The question is always more important than the answer.
  • Money is a proxy for value, valuable things directly add to a sense of fulfilment in the here and now.
  • Everyone has a deep need to feel their existence is of value and is appreciated.
  • Trusted connections are the most valuable thing in the world to build.
  • Life is a coordination game: nothing in this world feels as good as success as a team.
  • When you form a great team even if you fail in the goal, you will still win in the long run.
  • Breakthroughs come where differences of opinion collide
  • AI must have decentralized ownership to be worthy of trust.
  • Games build social glue
  • AI and Crypto are changing marketing
  • Community building marketing is essential to crypto
  • The flow of progress is dependent on social glue
  • Life time in flow is the most valuable metric
  • Games are taking over the world, Crypto and AI are taking over games
  • The future is already here it just is not evenly distributed
  • Most important area for exploration is consciousness (inner space).
  • If you spend your time with good people you are doing well.
  • Your culture is most valuable asset

Use the scientific method to reliably convert process into expected outcomes.

Confidence​

Analyse trends to forecast the future.

  • Use trends to shape predictions
  • Use predictions to prepare opportunities
  • Create connections leverage growth

Applications​

Things you believe to be true.

Investing​

  • Crypto is the future of investing,
  • Culture is king in Crypto
  • Every brand/network state will be an ecosystem abstracted above blockchain layers
  • Businesses/Protocols are consequences of collaborative decision-making
  • Valuable data is life-blood of strong decision-making
  • Follow the talent, great people make the difference

Business​

The intersection of AI and Blockchain is where the greatest value unlocks will occur.

  • Product engineering will eat marketing.
  • Service and growth is customised.
  • Better to be great than big.

Sales and Marketing​

  • In a world where anyone can be the world's best digital marketer, nobody is.

Software​

AI is making SaaS apps a commodity where everyone and anyone can compete, so entering a race to the bottom on pricing. Better to use software to operate with maximum effectiveness in real world verticals.

  • The End of Programming is near
  • Anyone can build any software product.
  • Collecting and processing trusted proprietary data is where the value lies.
  • For a piece of information to be valuable it needs to be actionable.
  • Any protocol is only going to be valuable as it's proprietary data.

Technology​

  • The greatest frontier for fruitful exploration is inner space.
  • To be effective with AI you need to have succinct bredth and depth of domain of expertise to prompt effectively.
  • Currently we are in the gap between prompting AI and AI prompting us.