Idea Discovery
You don't invent opportunities. You walk principles through different thinking systems wearing different archetype mindsets. Same principle, different lens, different mindset — different picture of opportunity. The pictures that keep lighting up across multiple perspectives are the ones worth pursuing.
Process
Six steps. Repeatable for any idea. Output is a venture page at /ventures/.
WALK → FIND → CAPTURE → SCORE → MODEL → MANIFEST
Step 1: Walk
Walk the fifteen business principles through different perspectives. The same principle reveals different opportunities depending on which thinking system you apply and which archetype you wear.
| Thinking System | What It Does to the Principle | Archetype | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matrix Thinking | Crosses it with industries and forces — empty cells are prompts | Engineer | Gap coordinates |
| First Principles | Strips it to fundamentals — what must be true? | Engineer | Irreducible requirements |
| Inversion | Asks what would guarantee failure | Philosopher | Kill signals |
| Design Thinking | Empathizes with who feels the friction | Dreamer | User pain map |
| Outsider Thinking | Questions the assumption everyone accepts | Philosopher | Contrarian thesis |
| Chain of Thought | Traces the reasoning step by step | Realist | Decision trace |
Example: Take Unit Economics. Apply Matrix Thinking through the Engineer archetype → you see which industries have broken unit economics at the transaction level. Apply Inversion through the Philosopher → you see what would make YOUR unit economics fail. Apply Design Thinking through the Dreamer → you see what the customer would actually pay for. Three perspectives, three pictures, one principle.
Worked instance: Berley Trails Principle Relevance — all fifteen principles walked, scored CRITICAL to IRRELEVANT, each with the decision it drove.
Step 2: Find
Use matrix thinking to locate the gap. The grid makes invisible opportunities visible.
Primary matrix: Industries x ABCDE forces
| Industry \ Force | AI | Blockchain | Crypto | Devices | Energy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Data | verification at scale | provenance ledger | data marketplace tokens | edge collection | ? |
| Manufacturing | closed-loop QA | supply chain integrity | ? | robotic sensing | grid optimisation |
| Robotics | multi-agent planning | machine settlement | task bounties | embodied autonomy | ? |
| Gaming | adaptive gameplay | trustless rewards | play-to-earn incentives | spatial play | ? |
| Education | personal tutors | credential rails | learning incentives | learning-by-doing rigs | ? |
Empty cells marked ? are prompts. Pick one to investigate.
Tech Amplifiers (ABCDE)
Five forces reshaping the operating system of the world:
| Force | One Line | Constraint Removed |
|---|---|---|
| A — AI | Intelligence as infrastructure | Cognitive scarcity |
| B — Blockchain | Validate the truth | Trust without intermediaries |
| C — Crypto | Engineer the incentive | Coordination without gatekeepers |
| D — Devices | Bridge physical and digital | Human monopoly on physical action |
| E — Energy | Power and direction | Scarcity of power and purpose |
Step 3: Capture
Before the idea dissolves. Five fields, one sentence each.
- Name the friction — what system is broken?
- Name the user — who feels it, and when?
- Name the change — before → after
- Name the test — smallest experiment you can run in 7 days
- Name the principle — which business principle lit up hardest?
If you can't express the idea in this format, you don't have an executable idea yet.
Idea Signals
How to recognize a strong capture:
| Signal | Weak | Strong |
|---|---|---|
| Frequency | One-off complaint | Repeats across different users/contexts |
| Urgency | "Nice to have" | Already spending money/time on workarounds |
| Clarity | Vague pain | Specific trigger, user, desired outcome |
| Feasibility | No obvious path to ship | Smallest viable experiment can run this cycle |
| Compounding | Solves one task only | Creates reusable protocol/platform capability |
Idea Sources
| Source | What to Watch | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Lived friction | Problems you keep working around | Repeated pain = non-trivial demand |
| Customer language | Exact words people use for stuck points | Reveals the job better than assumptions |
| Cross-domain collisions | A pattern in one industry that solves another | New combinations create unfair perspective |
| Edge behavior | What power users hack or misuse | Workarounds show missing product shape |
| Timing shifts | Regulation, AI capability jumps, cost collapses | "Too early" ideas become viable quickly |
Step 4: Score
Rate the opportunity using Disruption Scoring. Three layers, seven dimensions, composite out of 35.
| Layer | What It Measures | Dimensions |
|---|---|---|
| Moat (Upstream) | Can you defend the raw material? | Collection Cost, Data Exclusivity |
| Scale (Midstream) | Can you refine without gatekeepers? | Universal JTBD %, AI Leverage, Pipeline Dependency |
| Wedge (Downstream) | Can you sell and trigger action? | Time to ACV, Actuator Potential |
Disruption Score = (Moat + Scale + Wedge) / 35
Worked examples at Matrices: Agriculture (0.94), Gaming (0.69), Real Estate (0.63), Healthcare (0.51). The comparison reveals: wedge matters most, the toll bridge is fatal, actuator potential separates winners.
Step 5: Model
Cross your problem type with your delivery capability to select a business model.
| Problem Type | Solo / Small Team | Team + Capital | Network Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring digital | Micro-SaaS | SaaS | Platform |
| Expert knowledge | Freelance | Consulting | BOaaS |
| Physical presence | Local service | Franchise | DePIN |
| Coordination | Marketplace | Network | Protocol |
Then validate with five questions:
| Question | If Yes → | If No → |
|---|---|---|
| Is the value recurring? | SaaS or Subscription | Transaction or Project |
| Does it require physical presence? | DePIN or Local Services | Pure Digital |
| Is expertise the product? | Consulting or BOaaS | Product or Platform |
| Can others extend it? | Platform or Franchise | Direct delivery |
| Does it need trust infrastructure? | Crypto rails | Traditional rails |
Step 6: Manifest
Write the venture. Each phase produces a specific file, uses a specific thinking system, and runs through a specific archetype mindset. The venture presentation standard defines the folder structure.
| Phase | Thinking System | Archetype | Output File | What It Produces |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCAN (Steps 1-2) | Matrix Thinking | Dreamer | — | Gap coordinates from principles walk |
| DISCOVER (Step 3) | First Principles | Engineer | — | Captured idea: friction, user, change, test |
| VALIDATE (Step 4) | Inversion | Philosopher | — | Kill signals + disruption score |
| MODEL | Systems Thinking | Realist | — | Business model + feedback loops |
| FINANCE | Chain of Thought | Engineer | — | Unit economics, cash flow, ROI |
| STRATEGY | Outsider Thinking | Coach | business-plan/index.md | Positioning + competitive map + GTM |
| PITCH | Tight Five | Dreamer | prompt-deck/index.md | 5 conviction cards, 7 words each |
| SELL | Design Thinking | Coach | business-plan/pitch/ + landing-page/ | Scripts, engineering handoff |
| MEASURE | Systems Thinking | Realist | business-plan/feedback/ | Scorecard, KPIs, kill criteria |
The matter page (index.md) is written last — it's the decision surface distilled from everything above. Picture + five questions + think slow / act fast.
Three layers, three read times:
| Layer | Time | Job |
|---|---|---|
Matter (index.md) | 10 seconds | Reader identifies what, 5 questions, where to go |
| Prompt Deck | 2 minutes | 5 cards, headlines stick, links to depth |
| Business Plan | 30 minutes | All 10 sections + principle relevance trace (proof of thought) |
Worked instance: Berley Trails — all nine phases run. The principle relevance trace in the business plan is the proof that the walk-through happened. The feedback page closes the loop with 5 KPIs and kill criteria.
Legacy rule: When you finish a venture, improve the template for the next one. Berley Trails improved the business plan template with principle relevance traces and pricing algorithm worked examples. The next venture inherits those improvements.
Stage Gates
Before manifesting, pass each gate or kill the idea.
| Stage | Gate Question | Kill If... |
|---|---|---|
| 0. Self | Why YOU, THIS, NOW? | No founder-market fit |
| 1. Market | Evidence people will pay? | Assumptions, not evidence |
| 2. Distribution | Audience waiting for what you'll build? | No channel to customers |
| 3. Tech | 2-3 high-impact areas for 10x improvement? | Tech for tech's sake |
| 4. AI | Prioritized roadmap with clear ROI? | No measurable leverage |
| 5. Crypto | Genuine value from tokenization? | Tokenization without friction reduction |
| 6. Vertical | Entry wedge in specific industry? | Too broad, no expertise |
| 7. Execution | Smallest viable experiment defined? | Waiting for perfect conditions |
The Flow
Each step produces an artifact that feeds the next. The feedback loop closes when growth results revise strategy or generate new ideas.
WALK principles ──→ FIND gap ──→ CAPTURE idea ──→ SCORE opportunity
↓
MANIFEST venture ←── MODEL business ←── VALIDATE gates ←┘
↓
STRATEGY → OPERATIONS → GROWTH → FEEDBACK → back to WALK
| Transition | Decision Framework | Skip It And You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Idea → Strategy | Model selection matrix (Step 5) | Tactics without direction |
| Strategy → Operations | Operations by model | Plans without capacity |
| Operations → Growth | Growth metrics → ops decisions | Efficiency without purpose |
| Growth → Feedback | Evidence loop | Hoping instead of knowing |
Context
- Business Principles — The fifteen forces you walk through (Step 1)
- Matrix Thinking — The meta-tool for finding gaps (Step 2)
- Disruption Scoring — The scoring instrument with worked examples (Step 4)
- Business Models — Model catalog for selection (Step 5)
- Development Template — The A4 fill-in-the-blanks (Step 6)
- Archetypes — The mindsets that process differently
- Thinking Methods — The protocols archetypes run
- Ventures — Where manifested ideas live
- Industries — Vertical deep dives for the matrix
Links
- Pricing is a Positioning Problem
- Judy Fan: Cognitive Tools — "The representation is part of the cognition"
Questions
What would happen if you walked the same fifteen principles through a different archetype — and the opportunity that lights up is one you'd never considered?
- Which thinking system do you default to — and what opportunities does that blind spot hide?
- If Matrix Thinking finds the gap and Inversion finds the kill signal, what happens when they point at the same cell?
- When does a principle lighting up as IRRELEVANT tell you more about the opportunity than one lighting up as CRITICAL?
- What venture would emerge if you ran this procedure wearing only the Philosopher archetype?