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Model Selection

Which business model turns this opportunity into compounding value?

Business Alignment

QuestionAnswer
Venture name[name]
Validated idea (from DISCOVER)[JTBD statement]
5P composite score (from VALIDATE)[score]
What conviction level is model selection?HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW / NONE
What would make the wrong model fatal?[risk]

Model Selection Matrix

Map problem type to delivery capability. Select 2-3 candidates.

DimensionYour Situation
Problem typeOne-time / Recurring / Platform / Marketplace
Revenue modelTransaction / Subscription / Usage / Commission
DeliveryService / Product / Hybrid / Automated
Scale mechanismPeople / Software / Network / Content

Candidate Models

#ModelFit Score (1-5)Why It FitsWhy It Might FailConviction
1[e.g. Productized Service]
2[e.g. SaaS]
3[e.g. Marketplace]

XV Principles Evaluation

Score each candidate against 15 business principles across 5 lifecycle stages. Mark violations explicitly.

Foundation (principles 1-3)

PrincipleCandidate 1Candidate 2Candidate 3
Unit economics viable/5/5/5
Problem validated/5/5/5
Founder-market fit/5/5/5

Value Creation (principles 4-6)

PrincipleCandidate 1Candidate 2Candidate 3
Clear value proposition/5/5/5
Differentiation real/5/5/5
Willingness to pay proven/5/5/5

Growth (principles 7-9)

PrincipleCandidate 1Candidate 2Candidate 3
Scalable acquisition channel/5/5/5
Network effects possible/5/5/5
Organic growth potential/5/5/5

Protection (principles 10-12)

PrincipleCandidate 1Candidate 2Candidate 3
Switching cost or moat/5/5/5
Data advantage compounds/5/5/5
Regulatory or IP protection/5/5/5
PrincipleCandidate 1Candidate 2Candidate 3
Measurable success criteria/5/5/5
Pivot path exists/5/5/5
Alignment with founder values/5/5/5

XV Summary

CandidateTotal (/75)ViolationsSelected?
[Model 1][list any score < 2]
[Model 2]
[Model 3]

Feedback Loop Map

For the selected model, identify at least one positive feedback loop.

Positive Loops (value compounds)

Loop NameTriggerAmplifierLimiter
[e.g. Content flywheel][what starts it][what accelerates it][what caps it]

Negative Loops (value leaks)

Loop NameTriggerDrainIntervention
[e.g. Support overload][what starts it][where value goes][how to stop it]

Sentence Test

"We use a [model] because [reason]. Each [unit] creates value for the next through [feedback loop]. The moat is [protection mechanism]."

Questions

If the selected model has the highest XV score but the weakest feedback loop, is the score lying — or is the loop not essential at this stage?

  • Which principle violation in the selected model are you choosing to accept — and what would change your mind?
  • Does the positive feedback loop actually compound, or does it just repeat?
  • What would an outsider build instead of choosing from your three candidates?